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Pakistan's 22 GW Solar Shock: How a Fragile State Went Full Clean Energy

71 points by blackhawkC17 1y ago

amriksohata 1y ago
This model was copied from the state of Gujarat in India
lambdaone 1y ago
This is fascinating. As the article says, sometimes the most unglamorous things can be among the most interesting.
sMarsIntruder 1y ago
> Battery storage is the next act, mostly in the form of hybrid inverters and lithium-ion packs tucked into homes and businesses. That should go in parallel if they don’t want experience grid faults.
- lambdaone 1y ago
  Generation and storage definitely should go hand in hand, but I think the Pakistani authorities' desire is simply to have something better than the alternative of not having it. At least Pakistan has plenty of hydropower installations that could potentially be adapted to act as energy storage.
  - mycall 1y ago
    Is that maily using solar panels to power uphill water movement into water reservors?
    - lambdaone 1y ago
      Either local solar panels, grid power, or a combination of both, yes. And of course solar panels can also indirectly "store" power by simply reducing demand on hydro resources during the day, allowing water to back up for night-time use.
- matthewdgreen 1y ago
  I think the main point of this article is that none of this is happening in a centralized, coordinated fashion. This is mainly folks slapping solar on any building with a roof, with the government helping out a bit on the regulatory side. It does eventually need to be coordinated to avoid grid issues, but given the massive increase in battery manufacturing (and cost decreases) battery deployment is likely to happen at a lightning pace over the next 3-4 years.
  - tim333 1y ago
    The article seems unrealistically favourable to Pakistan's government eg: >Pakistan’s energy transformation didn’t happen in a vacuum—it’s part of a broader pivot toward climate consciousness that has taken root in both policy and politics... whereas in reality solar's taken off because the government is incompetent at providing electricity so people get their own panels. From wikipedia: >Following 2022 dearth of imported LNG in Pakistan, the country indicated it would quadruple its coal power plants, which use domestic coal Doesn't sound very "pivot toward climate consciousness" to me.
roenxi 1y ago
It is nice to see good news from time to time. I think the bigger question here is what role Chinese policy is playing in this story. Is their involvement strictly commercial? Have Chinese politicians decided on some sort of Marshall Plan-style approach to the Middle East? The US has spent decades destabilising this region of the globe. I am hopeful that China and India will want peace and prosperity instead and we're hitting economic tipping points where they are going to start getting what they want whatever it is. The US isn't in a position to cause as much trouble now if the Chinese military thinks their western flank needs to start calming down.
- m4rtink 1y ago
  Chinese - Pakistan relations go quite back by this point & are quite active, especially on the military purchasing front: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Pakistan_relatio...
- blackhawkC17 1y ago
  > I think the bigger question here is what role Chinese policy is playing in this story. Is their involvement strictly commercial? There's little government policy behind it. It's basically: Chinese companies invest in massive production of solar panels and drive prices down to unprecedented levels. Pakistani individuals and businesses, facing energy shortages and very expensive grid power, decide to invest in solar panels to get cheap energy. > Have Chinese politicians decided on some sort of Marshall Plan-style approach to the Middle East? Not even close, and there's no reason for them to do this.
  - flakeoil 1y ago
    And the fact that there are no tariffs on solar panels when importing them from China.
  - dogman144 1y ago
    > Not even close… Belt and road? Investing in ports? Infra build support for owned to CN? This literally just happened over the last decade, that’s plenty reason.
sohkamyung 1y ago
Off-topic, but the image captioned "Including workers in traditional dress handling solar infrastructure" looks AI generated. The workers on the extreme left and right are standing on solar panels, and the one in the centre is holding some metal bars that merge Escher-like with the panels behind him. Even the caption sounds like part of an AI prompt to generate the image.
- AndrewDucker 1y ago
  The caption for it is "ChatGPT generated panoramic Photo of a Pakistani factory rooftop covered in solar panels Including workers in traditional dress handling solar infrastructure"
- Bric3d 1y ago
  The file name is "ChatGPT-Image-Apr-4-2025-03_25_23-PM-800x445.png", so yeah, sure seems like it.
- limaoscarjuliet 1y ago
  Also "Battery storage is the next act [...]". There is no way they went "Full Clean Energy" without battery storage. Sounds more like op-ed piece than actual facts.
  - rurban 1y ago
    Nonsense. When you have huge cheap water dams, you won't need expensive tiny battery storage
    - garyfirestorm 1y ago
      Help me connect the dots. Solar energy - water dams - tiny battery storage.
      - deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
      - 1y ago
thedays 1y ago
The author of this article appears to be unaware that very high electricity prices have been the other key driver behind Pakistan’s solar boom along with the massive reduction in the cost of solar panels. This was covered recently in a great interview with two Pakistani renewable energy experts on the Volts podcast: https://www.volts.wtf/p/pakistans-solar-boom https://www.volts.wtf/p/pakistans-solar-boom
lolc 1y ago
I can't take this article seriously: 1. Uncanny slop "photo" of people installing panels, not even labeled as generated. There is zero excuse for this. 2. No links to sources. Either they are lazy or just making things up. 3. Wild swings in context and sloppy usage of terms like "producing electrons". A sloppy style can be fun to read, but it doesn't work here because it is applied inconsistently. I'd like to read an article on solar in Pakistan, but this source is no good. The whole site is suspect when this article is tolerated on it.
- captn3m0 1y ago
  I went looking for sources, and found some. Commented above: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43625728 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43625728
pastage 1y ago
If a 1000W panel is 4 square meter, that is cracy amount of square kilometers.
- flakeoil 1y ago
  It's a big country.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- FlyingSnake 1y ago
  Pakistan has large areas that are arid and suitable for such initiatives, especially in the South. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan#/media/File:Koppen-Geiger_Map_PAK_present.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan#/media/File:Koppen-Ge...
- myrmidon 1y ago
  Not at all! That would be less than 10 by 10 kilometers; thats less than half the area of the Mangla Lake, a single artificial reservoir.
ganarajpr 1y ago
The main reason for this is the exhorbitant cost of Energy in the country - apart from the constant 6-8 hrs powercut even in the urban centers. I have seen videos where a layman, who earns around 20-30k a month is slapped with a 32k electricity bill. I am not sure if a layman with means of this level is adopting Solar, but surely anyone else with the money to afford it will. Mostly because it makes economic sense.
neebz 1y ago
We setup a solar on in our home in Pakistan back in 2023. Our primary driver was cost since it was getting extremely expensive during summers when the ACs were on. We expected to get the return in 4 years but inflation went so high in subsequent years that it took just 2 years.
TheChaplain 1y ago
That would make a majority of the solar farms built and operated by chinese companies? And wouldn't that essentially make CCP in charge of a considerable part of Pakistans energy sector?
captn3m0 1y ago
I found some reasonable sources: https://ember-energy.org/data/chinas-solar-pv-export-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/chinas-solar-pv-export-explore... has charts for countries (and regions) that go to middle of 2024. https://ember-energy.org/data/china-solar-exports-data/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-solar-exports-data/ has the raw data, which shows 2194.236922MW of installation in pakistan in _just Jan 2025_. This is just China export data, based on the assumptions that: the country importing is actually installing this, and that .cn is 80% of the market, so it is a good proxy. Good job to whoever is importing this!

71 points by blackhawkC17 1y ago

amriksohata 1y ago

This model was copied from the state of Gujarat in India

lambdaone 1y ago

This is fascinating. As the article says, sometimes the most unglamorous things can be among the most interesting.

sMarsIntruder 1y ago

> Battery storage is the next act, mostly in the form of hybrid inverters and lithium-ion packs tucked into homes and businesses. That should go in parallel if they don’t want experience grid faults.

lambdaone 1y ago
Generation and storage definitely should go hand in hand, but I think the Pakistani authorities' desire is simply to have something better than the alternative of not having it. At least Pakistan has plenty of hydropower installations that could potentially be adapted to act as energy storage.
- mycall 1y ago
  Is that maily using solar panels to power uphill water movement into water reservors?
  - lambdaone 1y ago
    Either local solar panels, grid power, or a combination of both, yes. And of course solar panels can also indirectly "store" power by simply reducing demand on hydro resources during the day, allowing water to back up for night-time use.
matthewdgreen 1y ago
I think the main point of this article is that none of this is happening in a centralized, coordinated fashion. This is mainly folks slapping solar on any building with a roof, with the government helping out a bit on the regulatory side. It does eventually need to be coordinated to avoid grid issues, but given the massive increase in battery manufacturing (and cost decreases) battery deployment is likely to happen at a lightning pace over the next 3-4 years.
- tim333 1y ago
  The article seems unrealistically favourable to Pakistan's government eg: >Pakistan’s energy transformation didn’t happen in a vacuum—it’s part of a broader pivot toward climate consciousness that has taken root in both policy and politics... whereas in reality solar's taken off because the government is incompetent at providing electricity so people get their own panels. From wikipedia: >Following 2022 dearth of imported LNG in Pakistan, the country indicated it would quadruple its coal power plants, which use domestic coal Doesn't sound very "pivot toward climate consciousness" to me.

roenxi 1y ago

It is nice to see good news from time to time. I think the bigger question here is what role Chinese policy is playing in this story. Is their involvement strictly commercial? Have Chinese politicians decided on some sort of Marshall Plan-style approach to the Middle East? The US has spent decades destabilising this region of the globe. I am hopeful that China and India will want peace and prosperity instead and we're hitting economic tipping points where they are going to start getting what they want whatever it is. The US isn't in a position to cause as much trouble now if the Chinese military thinks their western flank needs to start calming down.

m4rtink 1y ago
Chinese - Pakistan relations go quite back by this point & are quite active, especially on the military purchasing front: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Pakistan_relatio...
blackhawkC17 1y ago
> I think the bigger question here is what role Chinese policy is playing in this story. Is their involvement strictly commercial? There's little government policy behind it. It's basically: Chinese companies invest in massive production of solar panels and drive prices down to unprecedented levels. Pakistani individuals and businesses, facing energy shortages and very expensive grid power, decide to invest in solar panels to get cheap energy. > Have Chinese politicians decided on some sort of Marshall Plan-style approach to the Middle East? Not even close, and there's no reason for them to do this.
- flakeoil 1y ago
  And the fact that there are no tariffs on solar panels when importing them from China.
- dogman144 1y ago
  > Not even close… Belt and road? Investing in ports? Infra build support for owned to CN? This literally just happened over the last decade, that’s plenty reason.

sohkamyung 1y ago

Off-topic, but the image captioned "Including workers in traditional dress handling solar infrastructure" looks AI generated. The workers on the extreme left and right are standing on solar panels, and the one in the centre is holding some metal bars that merge Escher-like with the panels behind him. Even the caption sounds like part of an AI prompt to generate the image.

AndrewDucker 1y ago
The caption for it is "ChatGPT generated panoramic Photo of a Pakistani factory rooftop covered in solar panels Including workers in traditional dress handling solar infrastructure"
Bric3d 1y ago
The file name is "ChatGPT-Image-Apr-4-2025-03_25_23-PM-800x445.png", so yeah, sure seems like it.
limaoscarjuliet 1y ago
Also "Battery storage is the next act [...]". There is no way they went "Full Clean Energy" without battery storage. Sounds more like op-ed piece than actual facts.
- rurban 1y ago
  Nonsense. When you have huge cheap water dams, you won't need expensive tiny battery storage
  - garyfirestorm 1y ago
    Help me connect the dots. Solar energy - water dams - tiny battery storage.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - 1y ago

thedays 1y ago

The author of this article appears to be unaware that very high electricity prices have been the other key driver behind Pakistan’s solar boom along with the massive reduction in the cost of solar panels. This was covered recently in a great interview with two Pakistani renewable energy experts on the Volts podcast: https://www.volts.wtf/p/pakistans-solar-boom https://www.volts.wtf/p/pakistans-solar-boom

lolc 1y ago

I can't take this article seriously: 1. Uncanny slop "photo" of people installing panels, not even labeled as generated. There is zero excuse for this. 2. No links to sources. Either they are lazy or just making things up. 3. Wild swings in context and sloppy usage of terms like "producing electrons". A sloppy style can be fun to read, but it doesn't work here because it is applied inconsistently. I'd like to read an article on solar in Pakistan, but this source is no good. The whole site is suspect when this article is tolerated on it.

captn3m0 1y ago
I went looking for sources, and found some. Commented above: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43625728 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43625728

pastage 1y ago

If a 1000W panel is 4 square meter, that is cracy amount of square kilometers.

flakeoil 1y ago
It's a big country.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
FlyingSnake 1y ago
Pakistan has large areas that are arid and suitable for such initiatives, especially in the South. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan#/media/File:Koppen-Geiger_Map_PAK_present.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan#/media/File:Koppen-Ge...
myrmidon 1y ago
Not at all! That would be less than 10 by 10 kilometers; thats less than half the area of the Mangla Lake, a single artificial reservoir.

ganarajpr 1y ago

The main reason for this is the exhorbitant cost of Energy in the country - apart from the constant 6-8 hrs powercut even in the urban centers. I have seen videos where a layman, who earns around 20-30k a month is slapped with a 32k electricity bill. I am not sure if a layman with means of this level is adopting Solar, but surely anyone else with the money to afford it will. Mostly because it makes economic sense.

neebz 1y ago

We setup a solar on in our home in Pakistan back in 2023. Our primary driver was cost since it was getting extremely expensive during summers when the ACs were on. We expected to get the return in 4 years but inflation went so high in subsequent years that it took just 2 years.

TheChaplain 1y ago

That would make a majority of the solar farms built and operated by chinese companies? And wouldn't that essentially make CCP in charge of a considerable part of Pakistans energy sector?

captn3m0 1y ago

I found some reasonable sources: https://ember-energy.org/data/chinas-solar-pv-export-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/chinas-solar-pv-export-explore... has charts for countries (and regions) that go to middle of 2024. https://ember-energy.org/data/china-solar-exports-data/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-solar-exports-data/ has the raw data, which shows 2194.236922MW of installation in pakistan in _just Jan 2025_. This is just China export data, based on the assumptions that: the country importing is actually installing this, and that .cn is 80% of the market, so it is a good proxy. Good job to whoever is importing this!