6 ms·

I genuinely think a Great Depression sized 90% reduction is plausible. If the Trump administration somehow makes a trusted ironclad commitment that they will ne

I genuinely think a Great Depression sized 90% reduction is plausible. If the Trump administration somehow makes a trusted ironclad commitment that they will never ever reduce the tariffs, but doesn't actually convince anyone that the tariffs are good, the market will still expect Congress or the next administration to reduce them. And thus capital investments will still be largely impossible in any sector exposed to them. (Even if your investment isn't directly exposed, can you be confident that Trump won't blow it up on some other quixotic crusade?)

TaurenHunter 2y ago
[flagged]
- SpicyLemonZest 2y ago
  Capitulate on what? Trump's senior trade advisor was on TV earlier today saying that the tariffs are not subject to negotiation and seemingly rejecting Vietnam's offer to zero out all their tariffs on the US. Trump himself has repeatedly stated that he thinks tariffs are good for the US and plans to keep them as long as there are trade deficits. Is there any reason to believe that there's some set of policy concessions the EU could make tomorrow that would convince the Trump administration to drop tariffs?
  - bitmasher9 2y ago
    If the concern is trade deficit then buying more imports would be the capitulation.
    - Tadpole9181 2y ago
      Are you seriously suggesting that countries will just force their citizens to buy products they can't afford and don't want? Especially democratic nations? Seriously?
      - TaurenHunter 2y ago
        Why don't you steelman the argument instead of using the most uncharitable interpretation possible?
        Tadpole9181 2y ago
        If the parent is saying that other countries can compromise by "importing more" until the trade deficit is fixed, there is no alternative to my statement. That is the argument being made. The government of that country would need to require it's citizens to purchase US goods regardless of their will or ability or need. That's how buying things works.
        SpicyLemonZest 2y ago
        I reject the idea that it's my job to come up with a good implementation of an idea I don't support. I'm not on board with "buying more imports would be the capitulation" precisely because I can't imagine any sensible way EU regulators could achieve that. You could nibble at the edges and make the beef lobby happy, but the Trump administration's belief that trade deficits are necessarily caused by bad regulation which could be repealed is just wrong.
      - bitmasher9 2y ago
        I’m not suggesting that anyone actually do it. I’m suggesting that it maybe what the Trump administration is looking for.
        Tadpole9181 2y ago
        Ah, gotcha. Apologies for not reading usernames, I thought you were the grandparent!
    - BobaFloutist 2y ago
      What imports though? What the fuck is China supposed to do, buy 200,000,000,000 cases of scotch?
      - bitmasher9 2y ago
        It wouldn’t be the first time a president played the roll of Boeing salesman.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - TaurenHunter 2y ago
    [flagged]
- triceratops 2y ago
  > They need the dollars For what?
  - bitmasher9 2y ago
    Europe needs money for importing energy. This is a life-or-death sort of thing, given how cold it gets in some European countries. Europe also imports large amounts of electronics and machinery.
    - triceratops 2y ago
      > Europe needs money for importing energy And they can't pay with their own currencies? If they import from other countries, that is? > Europe also imports large amounts of electronics and machinery From the US? Would their other vendors terribly mind taking Euros instead?
      - TaurenHunter 2y ago
        The global energy market uses the U.S. dollar for pricing and settling transactions since the 70s - the "petrodollar" system. If they EU push hard for it, they may get someone like Norway to accept Euros. However, there are energy contracts locked into dollar-based pricing and many exporters need dollars because they hold dollar-based debt, buy goods in dollars or have a currency peg. For them to accept the relatively unappealing Euros they might ask for a premium to offset conversion costs or risks.
        triceratops 2y ago
        But now everyone has the same problem getting dollars because everyone's got tariffs. The EU and their non-American suppliers. If said suppliers need dollars to pay back dollar-based debts, and those debtors aren't in the US, then they are also tariffed. Maybe they're all open to re-denominating debts and contracts in a currency that is easier to obtain and spend.
        2y ago

TaurenHunter 2y ago

[flagged]

SpicyLemonZest 2y ago
Capitulate on what? Trump's senior trade advisor was on TV earlier today saying that the tariffs are not subject to negotiation and seemingly rejecting Vietnam's offer to zero out all their tariffs on the US. Trump himself has repeatedly stated that he thinks tariffs are good for the US and plans to keep them as long as there are trade deficits. Is there any reason to believe that there's some set of policy concessions the EU could make tomorrow that would convince the Trump administration to drop tariffs?
- bitmasher9 2y ago
  If the concern is trade deficit then buying more imports would be the capitulation.
  - Tadpole9181 2y ago
    Are you seriously suggesting that countries will just force their citizens to buy products they can't afford and don't want? Especially democratic nations? Seriously?
    - TaurenHunter 2y ago
      Why don't you steelman the argument instead of using the most uncharitable interpretation possible?
      - Tadpole9181 2y ago
        If the parent is saying that other countries can compromise by "importing more" until the trade deficit is fixed, there is no alternative to my statement. That is the argument being made. The government of that country would need to require it's citizens to purchase US goods regardless of their will or ability or need. That's how buying things works.
      - SpicyLemonZest 2y ago
        I reject the idea that it's my job to come up with a good implementation of an idea I don't support. I'm not on board with "buying more imports would be the capitulation" precisely because I can't imagine any sensible way EU regulators could achieve that. You could nibble at the edges and make the beef lobby happy, but the Trump administration's belief that trade deficits are necessarily caused by bad regulation which could be repealed is just wrong.
    - bitmasher9 2y ago
      I’m not suggesting that anyone actually do it. I’m suggesting that it maybe what the Trump administration is looking for.
      - Tadpole9181 2y ago
        Ah, gotcha. Apologies for not reading usernames, I thought you were the grandparent!
  - BobaFloutist 2y ago
    What imports though? What the fuck is China supposed to do, buy 200,000,000,000 cases of scotch?
    - bitmasher9 2y ago
      It wouldn’t be the first time a president played the roll of Boeing salesman.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- TaurenHunter 2y ago
  [flagged]
triceratops 2y ago
> They need the dollars For what?
- bitmasher9 2y ago
  Europe needs money for importing energy. This is a life-or-death sort of thing, given how cold it gets in some European countries. Europe also imports large amounts of electronics and machinery.
  - triceratops 2y ago
    > Europe needs money for importing energy And they can't pay with their own currencies? If they import from other countries, that is? > Europe also imports large amounts of electronics and machinery From the US? Would their other vendors terribly mind taking Euros instead?
    - TaurenHunter 2y ago
      The global energy market uses the U.S. dollar for pricing and settling transactions since the 70s - the "petrodollar" system. If they EU push hard for it, they may get someone like Norway to accept Euros. However, there are energy contracts locked into dollar-based pricing and many exporters need dollars because they hold dollar-based debt, buy goods in dollars or have a currency peg. For them to accept the relatively unappealing Euros they might ask for a premium to offset conversion costs or risks.
      - triceratops 2y ago
        But now everyone has the same problem getting dollars because everyone's got tariffs. The EU and their non-American suppliers. If said suppliers need dollars to pay back dollar-based debts, and those debtors aren't in the US, then they are also tariffed. Maybe they're all open to re-denominating debts and contracts in a currency that is easier to obtain and spend.
        2y ago