4 ms·

The whole process from this administration doesn't seem the least bit thought out and nobody with any economic education / background is explaining what is supp

by duxup 2y ago

The whole process from this administration doesn't seem the least bit thought out and nobody with any economic education / background is explaining what is supposed to happen. According to insiders in the white house the tariffs came about from a 3 hour meeting, there's nobody willing say no to the old man who can't keep his thoughts or words together sometimes ... and regarding environmental problems IIRC he has already expressed "I'll be dead by then". I wonder if that is his approach to everything? In some ways this feels like the country has been brought along on some senile old man's suicide pact.

hayst4ck 2y ago
China and the cultural revolution/great leap forward should be a warning of what can happen when there is no oppositional veto power. These tariffs could be our four pests moment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward In 1967, emboldened radicals began seizing power from local governments and party branches, establishing new revolutionary committees in their place while smashing public security, procuratorate and judicial systems. Mao ambitiously sought an increase in rural grain production and an increase in industrial activity. Mao was dismissive of technical experts and basic economic principles, which meant that industrialization of the countryside would solely be dependent on the peasants. Output from the industrial activities such as steel was also supposed to be used for urban growth. Local officials were fearful of the so-called "Anti-Right Deviation Struggle" and they competed to fulfill or over-fulfill quotas which were based on Mao's exaggerated claims, collecting non-existent "surpluses" and leaving farmers to starve to death. Higher officials did not dare to report the economic disaster which was being caused by these policies, and national officials, blaming bad weather for the decline in food output, took little or no action. Acknowledging responsibilities for the Great Leap Forward, Mao did not retreat from his policies; instead, he blamed problems on bad implementation and "rightists" who opposed him. There is a reason historians are already fleeing the country: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/the-fascism-expert-at-yale-whos-fleeing-america https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/the-fascism-expert-at-... If we wait too long to act, there's a good chance it will be too late or cost much much more.
- zozbot234 2y ago
  Oppositional veto power should be coming from the Republicans in Congress right now, especially the House. And if they aren't going to do it they should all be facing primary challenges for the upcoming midterm elections.
  - hayst4ck 2y ago
    That is literally not oppositional veto power. You're asking what is currently a one party state to disempower itself or infight. That's absurd. The problem is unchecked power. You can't expect those in power to check themselves. When there is no forceful resistance at all to obviously insane completely radical policy that experts are "confused" by, we should all be very very worried.
    - zozbot234 2y ago
      The whole point is that the U.S. are far from a one party state right now. We are going to see midterm elections relatively soon, the result of which will most likely dictate the rest of Trump's presidency. If he loses his support in Congress, the potential for further damage will be checked significantly.
      - Eddy_Viscosity2 2y ago
        > relatively soon 2026 is a loong way off considering the pace that Trump is setting the place on fire. Yet he still has time to play golf. https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-has-another-miracle-golf-victory-at-his-own-course/ https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-has-another-miracle-golf...
      - hayst4ck 2y ago
        We aren't experiencing bad policy, we are experiencing an attack on rule of law, a coup, and "a revolution that will be bloodless if the left allows it to be." Russia has elections too and you should probably think about how they are different and why they are different, and how that relates to rule of law.
megamike 2y ago
Tariffs come in as a trigger for domestic industrial revival. The thinking is: by making imports expensive, you create room for U.S. producers to step in But here’s the problem: American factories can’t scale up overnight. So in the short term, consumers will face higher prices. The administration knows this. That’s why they’re front-loading the pain now, betting that by 2026, the benefits will be visible. In the meantime, they’re offering some near-term relief. Tax cuts have already been floated to help offset the cost burden on households. And while risky, currency devaluation may follow later to make imports cheaper without lifting tariffs. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1907880105369845865.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1907880105369845865.html
- zozbot234 2y ago
  The problem with that theory is that the higher prices and wealth destruction are not just "short term", they're here to stay for the foreseeable future unless these political choices are reversed. Think about what factories make - durable goods. Which means if a cost rise is genuinely time-limited, it's just offset by drawing down inventories and you aren't going to see it. That's not what's going on, if anything it's the exact opposite with stuff being hoarded to be sold at even higher prices later.
- t-writescode 2y ago
  How would tax cuts help when: * tariffs are taxes paid by the buyer * sales tax is state and lower level and keeps states themselves afloat. ? "End of year taxes"? Getting another $200/mo in wages isn't going to even be seen as a wage increase when you go to the store and everyday items are 30% more expensive.
- joezydeco 2y ago
  That sounds like an actual plan, which is five sentences more than the administration has presented to date. You've pulled the rug out from consumers' pocketbooks, your stock price is in the toilet, and there's no idea what will come tomorrow, next week, or next year from this group. How do you raise money and plan to onshore your manufacturing in an environment like that? You're better off hunkering down and doing nothing.
- 2y ago
trilbyglens 2y ago
Semile old man's death pact seems to be the way our entire government has been working for the last 10 years.
red-iron-pine 2y ago
> In some ways this feels like the country has been brought along on some senile old man's suicide pact. He's owned by Putin, and a few billionaires that are willing to play along a la Project 2025. How is this even a discussion at this point? Literally the only country that didn't get tariffs is Russia.

by duxup 2y ago

hayst4ck 2y ago

China and the cultural revolution/great leap forward should be a warning of what can happen when there is no oppositional veto power. These tariffs could be our four pests moment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward In 1967, emboldened radicals began seizing power from local governments and party branches, establishing new revolutionary committees in their place while smashing public security, procuratorate and judicial systems. Mao ambitiously sought an increase in rural grain production and an increase in industrial activity. Mao was dismissive of technical experts and basic economic principles, which meant that industrialization of the countryside would solely be dependent on the peasants. Output from the industrial activities such as steel was also supposed to be used for urban growth. Local officials were fearful of the so-called "Anti-Right Deviation Struggle" and they competed to fulfill or over-fulfill quotas which were based on Mao's exaggerated claims, collecting non-existent "surpluses" and leaving farmers to starve to death. Higher officials did not dare to report the economic disaster which was being caused by these policies, and national officials, blaming bad weather for the decline in food output, took little or no action. Acknowledging responsibilities for the Great Leap Forward, Mao did not retreat from his policies; instead, he blamed problems on bad implementation and "rightists" who opposed him. There is a reason historians are already fleeing the country: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/the-fascism-expert-at-yale-whos-fleeing-america https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/the-fascism-expert-at-... If we wait too long to act, there's a good chance it will be too late or cost much much more.

zozbot234 2y ago
Oppositional veto power should be coming from the Republicans in Congress right now, especially the House. And if they aren't going to do it they should all be facing primary challenges for the upcoming midterm elections.
- hayst4ck 2y ago
  That is literally not oppositional veto power. You're asking what is currently a one party state to disempower itself or infight. That's absurd. The problem is unchecked power. You can't expect those in power to check themselves. When there is no forceful resistance at all to obviously insane completely radical policy that experts are "confused" by, we should all be very very worried.
  - zozbot234 2y ago
    The whole point is that the U.S. are far from a one party state right now. We are going to see midterm elections relatively soon, the result of which will most likely dictate the rest of Trump's presidency. If he loses his support in Congress, the potential for further damage will be checked significantly.
    - Eddy_Viscosity2 2y ago
      > relatively soon 2026 is a loong way off considering the pace that Trump is setting the place on fire. Yet he still has time to play golf. https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-has-another-miracle-golf-victory-at-his-own-course/ https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-has-another-miracle-golf...
    - hayst4ck 2y ago
      We aren't experiencing bad policy, we are experiencing an attack on rule of law, a coup, and "a revolution that will be bloodless if the left allows it to be." Russia has elections too and you should probably think about how they are different and why they are different, and how that relates to rule of law.

megamike 2y ago

Tariffs come in as a trigger for domestic industrial revival. The thinking is: by making imports expensive, you create room for U.S. producers to step in But here’s the problem: American factories can’t scale up overnight. So in the short term, consumers will face higher prices. The administration knows this. That’s why they’re front-loading the pain now, betting that by 2026, the benefits will be visible. In the meantime, they’re offering some near-term relief. Tax cuts have already been floated to help offset the cost burden on households. And while risky, currency devaluation may follow later to make imports cheaper without lifting tariffs. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1907880105369845865.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1907880105369845865.html

zozbot234 2y ago
The problem with that theory is that the higher prices and wealth destruction are not just "short term", they're here to stay for the foreseeable future unless these political choices are reversed. Think about what factories make - durable goods. Which means if a cost rise is genuinely time-limited, it's just offset by drawing down inventories and you aren't going to see it. That's not what's going on, if anything it's the exact opposite with stuff being hoarded to be sold at even higher prices later.
t-writescode 2y ago
How would tax cuts help when: * tariffs are taxes paid by the buyer * sales tax is state and lower level and keeps states themselves afloat. ? "End of year taxes"? Getting another $200/mo in wages isn't going to even be seen as a wage increase when you go to the store and everyday items are 30% more expensive.
joezydeco 2y ago
That sounds like an actual plan, which is five sentences more than the administration has presented to date. You've pulled the rug out from consumers' pocketbooks, your stock price is in the toilet, and there's no idea what will come tomorrow, next week, or next year from this group. How do you raise money and plan to onshore your manufacturing in an environment like that? You're better off hunkering down and doing nothing.
2y ago

trilbyglens 2y ago

Semile old man's death pact seems to be the way our entire government has been working for the last 10 years.

red-iron-pine 2y ago

> In some ways this feels like the country has been brought along on some senile old man's suicide pact. He's owned by Putin, and a few billionaires that are willing to play along a la Project 2025. How is this even a discussion at this point? Literally the only country that didn't get tariffs is Russia.