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Capitol Trades: Tracking Stock Market Transactions of Politicians
- NoWordsKotoba 2y agoI may have missed it, but how "real-time" are these trades? For those trades that appear to be in the last few days, how is it being tracked?
- rtkwe 2y agoThe STOCKS Act requires trade disclosures within 30 days but the penalty is only $200 so in theory it lags at most 30 days and maybe less depending on the whims of the Rep/Senator in question. More info at the link below, there are predictably some problems with compliance and the lag means the price change they were potentially reacting to might have already happened but there are examples where it hadn't. eg: We learned about some Members dumping stocks after the confidential briefing before COVID really hit the US. https://campaignlegal.org/update/congressional-stock-trading-and-stock-act https://campaignlegal.org/update/congressional-stock-trading...
- pclmulqdq 2y agoIn other words, likely about 30 days delayed unless it benefits them to tell you earlier.
- rtkwe 2y agoIt's a mixed bag, quicker reporting doesn't really hurt them specifically until they're required to report them in advance of the trade because any time after it they've already made the sale/purchase so you knowing a bit sooner after the trade doesn't really affect their plays. (unless they're gambling on options I guess) The reports are public so you can scroll through them, the most common pattern (I'm just eyeballing it I haven't found their download to graph it out properly) looks like they just do bulk reports every 30 days so you actually get a mix of old and new trades in each report. https://www.capitoltrades.com/trades https://www.capitoltrades.com/trades
- rib3ye 2y agoRight, within 30 days and no later than 45 days.
- ajdude 2y agoUnless you're David Taylor apparently, then it's anywhere from 42 to 63 days ( based on https://www.capitoltrades.com/trades https://www.capitoltrades.com/trades )
- taylorhughes 2y agoLooks like the post title got the wrong “capital”, the name is Capitol (ie, the Capitol Building, where congresspeople work)
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- blobbers 2y agoNANC and KRUZ are ETFs that track your favorite politicians stock transactions and replicate in ETF form. This has been a long standing form of “investing”. See Pelosi’s husband for his track record of “success”.
- sanswork 2y agoHe's a SV/SF investor who basically just invests in tech. His returns are about the same as QQQ which makes sense. If he's getting valuable inside information from Nancy to help his trading he's not using it well.
- Aurornis 2y agoI’m still amazed that people take the Pelosi bait when many other politicians have been far ahead of her on the charts. Most of them are Republicans, though, and haven’t had the same amount of headlines and Twitter/Reddit traffic. The services pushing politician trade tracking and ETFs really leaned into Pelosi to capitalize on it. As the other comment already said, her (more specifically, her husband’s) returns haven’t actually been noteworthy or suspect, it’s just the implication that gets people worked up.
- pessimizer 2y ago> I’m still amazed that people take the Pelosi bait when many other politicians have been far ahead of her on the charts. This comment doesn't help. You haven't mentioned another politician, either Republican or Democrat, when you had all the room and time in the world to do so. This line also depends on the fiction that people think that Pelosi is uniquely trading on the information that she learns at her job, rather than just openly and proudly trading on the information that she learns at her job. Other people being corrupt doesn't make the corruption disappear. It isn't like Democrats are positive numbers and Republicans are negative numbers that cancel each other out. We're not looking for equity in corruption.
- infecto 2y agoThe data is not new as a number of other systems cover this but I am happy for it to get more press. There are a couple things on my top dislikes of US politics and not having more restrictions on politicians is up near the top. I have to follow much more stringent disclosures and controls as part of a large private entity that does investment. It’s absurd that folks making policy, who have a potentially closer ear to the ground are not more restricted. The 30 days self reporting disclosure period is a joke too. It’s after the fact, has no real penalty for being late and AFAIK they don’t maintain any real restriction lists so it has no impact.
- ttyprintk 2y agoI haven’t seen Autopilot posted on HN: joinautopilot.com
- y-curious 2y agoDo you use it? Tell me more, why this one?
- ttyprintk 2y agoNo, it has a feature where it connects to your brokerage in order to execute the trades. That’s rather involved for me. Turns out I was wrong and it has been submitted: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42682786 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42682786
- mamidon 2y agoNo joke, I used to work there until they went RTO. But I liked the product. It's crazy that our politicians can trade like they do.
- aoanevdus 2y agoIsn’t trading off of delayed disclosures basically being dumb money? You’re in a similar position to a pump and dump victim.
- Aurornis 2y agoThis looks like any other blog spam website pushing newsletters and clickbait. Why is it being upvoted here? Are people upvoting out of anger at politicians trading stocks without looking at the website first?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- Peteragain 2y agoYep. Looks like it. The links in comments to ones that do it better are useful. An opportunity for someone to collate and compare as a bit of investigative journalism.
- ourmandave 2y agoI don't want to track them, I want to mirror them.
- ttyprintk 2y agoOh the product offerings are way ahead of that. Until recently, you could invest in Inverse Jim Cramer. Plenty of passive and active funds for Nancy Pelosi.
- epoxyhockey 2y agoInverse Jim Cramer ETF closed 1 year ago due to lack of interest, sheesh. To follow Pelosi, just look up the public record on the government website. It tells you the date and the product he used. Then just look up the chart for that day and look at the price range.
- epoxyhockey 2y agoI'll save everyone hours of headache. The only politician's disclosures that are worth anything are Pelosi's. And by Pelosi, it is actually her husband that trades but that she has to disclose those trades as a politician. You can also copy Pelosi's trades exactly if you are into speculation and you can experience first hand how many of his trades end up -30% or more, but over the course of the year they have a chance of gaining. They gain not so much because there is any meaningful insider information, but because he holds the position for 1 year and we are still in a bull market (even as of tonight). I think it's amusing that folks think that politicians have any sort of capability to be able to consistently beat the S&P 500.
- jatora 2y agoHmm this seems like a strange take. A bull market when we have s&p drops steeper then covid? And you are aware politicians have insider knowledge, correct? That is how you beat the s&p.
- astrange 2y ago> And you are aware politicians have insider knowledge, correct? That is how you beat the s&p. No, this is how low info conspiratorial voters think it works, because their worldview is everything is 1. a conspiracy 2. involves "money" in some basic way they can easily imagine. Insider knowledge doesn't reliably beat passive investing and why would politicians even have it? You can see what they're voting for by watching CSPAN.
- jatora 2y agoI dont think everything is a conspiracy, but it is obvious corruption is rampant in US politics, and who in their right mind would think that that stops at leveraging special committee insider knowledge for personal gains?
- astrange 2y agoNo, that isn't obvious. You just think that because you believe that thinking this makes you cooler.
- SubiculumCode 2y agoHow up to date is this? Months via disclosure?
- kacesensitive 2y agoPublic officials should not own stocks full stop.
- HPsquared 2y agoPretty much everyone owns stocks.
- VincentEvans 2y agoIMO broad categories of government employees should be restricted to owning broad index funds. But at least as far as upper echelons of political power - house, senate, supreme court, president and his cabinet - there should scarcely be any debate at all. Personally I would prefer restricting them to SNP500. US does well - they’ll do well.
- Jtsummers 2y agoIt might be reasonable to say they shouldn't own individual stocks (of their own selection), but not owning stocks is unreasonable. They get paid well, but not that well. https://radiotv.house.gov/house-data/salaries https://radiotv.house.gov/house-data/salaries That's several times over median but many of us on this site make that much or more. More reasonable restrictions would be things like requiring them to use a blind trust, to restrict investments to index funds or managed portfolios, or something.
- ivanmontillam 2y agoBut isn't that a significant conflict of interest if they are public service employees? If they are truly people-oriented as they oath when they join public service, why allow them to own stock at all?
- kasey_junk 2y agoShould all government employees be banned from owning stock?
- mancerayder 2y agoHow recent is the data? I want to know what cyber security companies are signing contracts as soon as possible after those congressional committees meet. I have no doubt some moves were made before those tariffs, but it seemed it was telegraphed to everyone.
- outer_web 2y agoThe page lists trades from two days ago but doesn't explain how they get their information. Do some congressmen report immediately?
- hash872 2y agoCongressional (or executive branch.....) stock trading is completely unacceptable and should be totally banned. Full stop. With that being said- the idea that they're outperforming the market I think has been debunked several times. I'm sure that they're acting in bad faith and believe that they have some kind of precious inside information. But a few different studies have shown that they basically do the same as any group of a few hundred people that pick individual stocks- some outperform, some underperform, and in general their returns are a random walk. See https://studenttheses.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/20.500.12932/47365/Lis_7882866.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y https://studenttheses.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/20.500.12932/47... "no significant abnormal returns" https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4954641 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4954641 "significantly underperform" https://andy.egge.rs/papers/EggMueller_capitol_losses_jop_2013.pdf https://andy.egge.rs/papers/EggMueller_capitol_losses_jop_20... "between 2004 and 2008 the average member of Congress would have earned higher returns in a passive index fund" Stick to index funds folks
- kasey_junk 2y agoMost congresspeople are just in index funds. And almost to a person the ones that aren’t are extremely wealthy people with portfolio goals different than indexing the market.
- kubb 2y agoJust the recent tarrifs announcement would have given you serious gains by rebalancing to bonds beforehand and buying the dip.
- pera 2y agoOr trading VIX derivatives
- instagib 2y agoRichard Burr may have been convinced to not seek reelection to avoid prosecution. “a 2012 law, the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act, bars members of Congress and their aides from making investment decisions based on inside information they have access to as part of their Senate work, including both criminal and civil penalties for violations. Legal experts say that determining what information is “nonpublic” can be exceedingly difficult; no one has been successfully prosecuted under the law.” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-wont-charge-sen-richard-burr-with-insider-trading-01611104898# https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-wont-charge-sen-richa...
- khaki54 2y agoPersonally I think Congress should be obligated to invest in US small cap funds only. Perhaps they could also design state versions and you can invest in some mix between US small cap and state based funds.
- j16sdiz 2y agoGiven how much power they alte already have , they can just setup their own "small cap fund". Create shell companies that fits the criteria, etc. If we can't trust the lawmakers, something has fucked up already. I think we need more transparency, not more restrictions. Trust and Verify.
- BigParm 2y agoLet me know which politicians buy VT, I'll copy that.
- wodenokoto 2y agoAny historical analysis pointing at following politicians in general or any specific politicians is a good investment? Does anyone supply US-POL Dem / Rep as an index tracked ETFs?
- teo_zero 2y agoSee https://www.morningstar.com/funds/2-etfs-that-track-congressional-stock-trades https://www.morningstar.com/funds/2-etfs-that-track-congress...
- henearkr 2y agoI am happy that this kind of tracking project exists. The current tariffs policy of Trump's regime could even be a market manipulation for their personal enrichnent: send the stock markets crashing with a very dumb financial decision, buy a lot of stocks when they are low, and right after cancel the dumb decision, and then profit. They have nuked the SEC for a reason, haven't they?
- uber1geek 2y agoIs there a CRYPTO equivalent of this?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- InfinityByTen 2y agoI'm a bit uneducated in the ways of shorting options. Is this topical because Mr. President induced a massive stock market meltdown in the US and his friends could have made a fortune for knowing the details and shorted the most likely biggest loss-makers? Or is that not how the markets work?
- ZeroTalent 2y agoyes. They are called put options. (simplifying) explained here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/putoption.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/putoption.asp
- ZeroTalent 2y agoPolitically this is useful, but if you want to use it for trading this is, unfortunately, useless, as they have 90 days before they have to report a trade. IIRC. Also, if you look at congresspeople's gains, on average, they are not that great.
- BrunoJo 2y agoAnother great source for trades made by US politicians is https://stockcircle.com/congress-stock-trades https://stockcircle.com/congress-stock-trades. You can see their whole portfolio and also follow other investors like Warren Buffett to see what they are investing in.
- randomcarbloke 2y agothere was a tool like this for tracking c-suiters and the trades of theirs that relate to their own companies, anyone got a link?