4 ms·

"It’s not just that self-driving cars in general are dangerous for motorcycles, either: this problem is unique to Tesla. Not a single other automobile manufactu

"It’s not just that self-driving cars in general are dangerous for motorcycles, either: this problem is unique to Tesla. Not a single other automobile manufacturer or ADAS self-driving technology provider reported a single motorcycle fatality in the same time frame." Doesn't matter when mileage isn't what's being compared - it's whether or not others have caused the same problem - PERIOD.

SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago
> Doesn't matter when mileage isn't what's being compared Maybe the mileage on other brands is lower, because Tesla is unique in hyping as "full self-driving" a product that's not ready? It would still be a problem unique to Tesla then.
siilats 2y ago
so if the other cars have 5x less miles on autopilot compared to tesla you expect to see 0 crashes even though the probability of a crash is the same
- whiplash451 2y ago
  Why are we moving the goal posts to « other manufacturers drive less miles so statistically it’s still OK to kill people »?
  - bitmasher9 2y ago
    I would like the goal post somewhere around “Is safer in every situation than a skilled and concentrated human driver”
    - whiplash451 2y ago
      Right, and so by that standard, self-driving companies should have literally zero death attributed to them per year given how few miles they drive compared to human drivers. That is: until self-driving cars ride much more, obviously.
  - fallingknife 2y ago
    Because currently 40,000 people die every year in the US from car crashes, so it has been decided that it's ok to kill a certain amount of people with cars for a long time.
sodality2 2y ago
Statistically it does matter. If FSD has a 1-in-100M miles driven chance of killing a motorcyclist, and FSD drives 10M miles a day, within 10 days it's likely to see a trend starting. Whereas XYZ other brand may have a 1-in-30M miles driven chance of killing a motorcyclist, but only drives 1M miles a day, so without adjusting, FSD is more dangerous, but in reality, XYZ is.
justinrubek 2y ago
The distance driven absolutely has something to do with it. If I made my own self driving car that only drove 100 meters, then there would not be enough data to know anything. There's definitely an issue with Tesla's approach, though.
redox99 2y ago
That's just probability. In a binomial distribution with 0 < p < 1, the probability of 0 successes is nonzero P(x = 0) > 0

SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago

> Doesn't matter when mileage isn't what's being compared Maybe the mileage on other brands is lower, because Tesla is unique in hyping as "full self-driving" a product that's not ready? It would still be a problem unique to Tesla then.

siilats 2y ago

so if the other cars have 5x less miles on autopilot compared to tesla you expect to see 0 crashes even though the probability of a crash is the same

whiplash451 2y ago
Why are we moving the goal posts to « other manufacturers drive less miles so statistically it’s still OK to kill people »?
- bitmasher9 2y ago
  I would like the goal post somewhere around “Is safer in every situation than a skilled and concentrated human driver”
  - whiplash451 2y ago
    Right, and so by that standard, self-driving companies should have literally zero death attributed to them per year given how few miles they drive compared to human drivers. That is: until self-driving cars ride much more, obviously.
- fallingknife 2y ago
  Because currently 40,000 people die every year in the US from car crashes, so it has been decided that it's ok to kill a certain amount of people with cars for a long time.

sodality2 2y ago

Statistically it does matter. If FSD has a 1-in-100M miles driven chance of killing a motorcyclist, and FSD drives 10M miles a day, within 10 days it's likely to see a trend starting. Whereas XYZ other brand may have a 1-in-30M miles driven chance of killing a motorcyclist, but only drives 1M miles a day, so without adjusting, FSD is more dangerous, but in reality, XYZ is.

justinrubek 2y ago

The distance driven absolutely has something to do with it. If I made my own self driving car that only drove 100 meters, then there would not be enough data to know anything. There's definitely an issue with Tesla's approach, though.

redox99 2y ago

That's just probability. In a binomial distribution with 0 < p < 1, the probability of 0 successes is nonzero P(x = 0) > 0