9 ms·

Wall Street Blew It

pdimitar 2y ago
Knowing nearly nothing about the stock market, I say some time has to pass before we truly know whether these current (and probably temporary) consequences will persist. I mean, people sign the death sentences of companies that have gradual decline of their stock prices over the course of some mere two months... and then it rebounds, and then you check the one-year graphs and are wondering why were you worried. So I don't know. Is it really so bad? Honest question. I am a layman.
- matthewdgreen 2y ago
  Right now countries around the world are re-organizing their trading patterns in ways that will have permanent effects. Even if Trump cancels the tariffs tomorrow, he would have to convince the rest of the world that he'll never do anything like this again -- and that actually he (and the US) are reliable trading partners. I just can't see how he'd do it if he wanted to, and I don't think he wants to.
  - pdimitar 2y ago
    That makes sense on the outset, thank you. Any details on that re-organization of trading patterns?
    - matthewdgreen 2y ago
      We don't know because it's literally day 2, but e.g.,: https://www.axios.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-canada-europe-allies https://www.axios.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-canada-europe...
  - baal80spam 2y ago
    > Right now countries around the world are re-organizing their trading patterns in ways that will have permanent effects. I would say that during COVID it was much, MUCH more serious. And yet here we are, back in years long bull market.
    - piva00 2y ago
      Just took some trillions to be printed across the world to be ingested by financial markets to get into it. No biggie.
    - ben_w 2y ago
      I think in the pandemic everyone knew it would end at some point, just not when. With Trump… he's already talking about a third term, despite the constitution.
    - sn9 2y ago
      COVID was basically an act of god that effected everyone and for whom no single actor could be blamed. This is the thoughtless incineration of trust in a network of relationships, and that has to be earned back. It's unclear how long that will take even if the GOP loses the next few presidential elections given how much US policy can change from one term to the next. The world will be waiting to see if Trumpism ends with Trump or if it becomes something they have to account for possibly taking power every four years. This has ramifications for any long-term investment into the US like factories and manufacturing. The risk has just shot up and will be much slower to come down.
  - fleischhauf 2y ago
    it even goes beyond trump unfortunately. how can others be sure that we won't someone like him again or worse in 8 years from now. Our system does not have safeguards against lunatics like him I would not trust the US either if I were from some other country.
  - mindslight 2y ago
    The Atlantic blew it, by continuing to equivocate around whether a "trade deficit" should be considered bad in the first place. Like all these Orwellian upside-down terms [0], it should really be called a trade surplus, as in we are getting more stuff from the other country than we're giving to them! Like duh, this is a no-brainer beneficial and enviable position. And Trump's goal is to end this, presumably to turn this country into an impoverished work camp ruled over by hollow charlatans like himself. [0] eg "the deficit" should really be named the surplus as it's money representing the collected proceeds from our world wide demurrage currency that other countries still keep buying into because using it is just that advantageous.
- legitster 2y ago
  I agree with your point to a certain degree. I think we should be willing to try bad/risky ideas occasionally if just to remind ourselves why they are bad. However: 1. It can take years to make something and seconds to break it. These changes are so drastic and damaging that we may permanently set our economy back decades, especially when if other countries no longer trust us. 2. It puts a lot of faith in politicians to admit mistakes. The disastrous trade policies of the 1930s were never gotten rid of until after they led to WWII.
  - littlexsparkee 2y ago
    It's like touching the stovetop after already having been burned, why would you do it? It's not like the tariffs promised were well thought out / structured to actually boost FDI and domestic manufacturing.
- goatlover 2y ago
  The current one-year graph is now in negative territory. And economists are saying there's a good chance we're headed for a global recession. The stagflation of the 70s is a real possibility, although employment news for March was good.
linotype 2y ago
No, half of America’s voters blew it. The market is just expressing the consequences.
- azemetre 2y ago
  The odd part is that Congress, at any time, can revoke these tariffs but are choosing not to do so because they need them for the tax cuts the GOP will legislate later this year. The only sad thing during this whole ordeal is how ineffectual democratic politicians are... especially when they personally dealt with minority parties stopping them quite easily for the last 15 years. You'd think they'd learn some lessons but their failure to seize the moment is the only consistency they have.
  - m463 2y ago
    I thought they are a negotiating tactic for countries that have their own anti-us tariffs.
    - ndsipa_pomu 2y ago
      Which countries are those?
      - m463 2y ago
        I read about some here... https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/regulating-imports-with-a-reciprocal-tariff-to-rectify-trade-practices-that-contribute-to-large-and-persistent-annual-united-states-goods-trade-deficits/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/regu... don't know if they're cherry-picking
        ben_w 2y ago
        Trump put tariffs on everywhere, including an island with no humans separately to the country which owns that island. And from previous statements, Trump's idea of "anti-US tariff" seems to include the EU's VAT, which is sales tax that everyone including local supplies pays. So while some of that might be cherry picking, the reasoning overall is obvious nonsense, which is worse.
redwood 2y ago
Wall Street or at least hedge funds love this kind of volatility
Deprogrammer9 2y ago
This is what Trump & Elon wanted all along. They even said it outright duh.
- dpkirchner 2y ago
  That's what gets me. Trump has been telling us he was going to tank the stock market and increase unemployment -- it was practically his entire platform. Why are so many people acting surprised?
  - spwa4 2y ago
    Can you provide a link?
    - dpkirchner 2y ago
      It was in basically every campaign rally, wasn't it? He brought up tariffs and shrinking the government. Obviously tariffs are terrible for economies, as is firing hundreds of thousands of people.
  - idle_zealot 2y ago
    He also says he wants to bring back well-paid American jobs, and promises prosperity. The problem is that we've allowed a remarkable portion of the population to become so despondent and dismissive of con artistry that they're willing to write anything they don't like off as bluster and believe only the parts convenient to them at the moment. Simultaneously this group lacks the ability to perform the analysis necessary to make predictions about what parts he actually means. A normalization of dishonesty and an unsatisfactory status quo, with only one person offering anything that sounds like change.
  - llm_nerd 2y ago
    This isn't accurate. He, being a guy quite literally facing prison time if he didn't win, promised untold riches for all Americans if he won. An era of prosperity. That everything would be nothing but greatness from a newly respected super power. I mean...anyone with any reason knew it was outrageous nonsense, of the worst sort of political puffery. Basically a cliche of the worst political nonsense. He and his supplicants started the "okay, maybe things will be bad for a while" weeks after his inauguration when it was blatantly obvious that it was all ridiculous lies. His supplicants are now talking about how Americans should feel empowered going without goods and luxuries. That's the thing about liars. It's like with DOGE starting by getting the cult all excited about the imaginary $5000 cheque they would all get from all those easy savings, but after a few months, when it is blatantly obvious that the deficit has gone up (and thus far there have been exactly 0 cases of fraud found), there'll be a different tune. Same thing about his team of cybercriminal misfits who claim they're going to super rewrite everything -- anyone who has worked in this field long enough have had to endure incompetent clowns like that, and six months in we'll hear a list of "why the code they inherited was the worst code in the world, and..."
littlexsparkee 2y ago
https://archive.ph/3GTsu https://archive.ph/3GTsu wild that we wouldn't be here if folks had taken the talking points seriously, but because they could be brushed aside as bombast, they came to pass.
- steveBK123 2y ago
  It's the constant playbook of the trump explainer/apologists: * He's just being bombastic * It's just a negotiation tool * Sure he's doing it but it's going to be a narrow policy * Fine its broad but it's just temporary * Yeah its broad and permanent but it won't be too harmful * Actually it's a great idea and he's smart for doing it
  - valbaca 2y ago
    Reminds me of the Narcissist's Prayer: That didn't happen. And if it did, it wasn't that bad. And if it was, that's not a big deal. And if it is, that's not my fault. And if it was, I didn't mean it. And if I did, you deserved it.
    - steveBK123 2y ago
      The crazy thing is I know otherwise intelligent people who voted for Trump, but make arguments in his defense that 75% sound like the most jaded #resistlib never trumper take, until he gets to the end. Almost word for word this week was like- Trump is a conman, you can't believe half of what he says. Trump doesn't deliver half of what he promises. He isn't very smart, just cares about his own image and ego. He is addicted to doing substanceless deals and creating crises he can do these nothing deals to resolve. So DOGE isn't real, he isn't gonna cut spending, he's gonna continue growing deficit, he won't drain the swamp or build a wall or repeal Obamacare. And the closer is "And given all that there's no way Trump crashes the economy". I just do not get this cult. It's an addiction to "owning the libs" at all costs.
      - sn9 2y ago
        I think what explains it best is they're so allergic to admitting the outgroup is right that they would sooner burn the entire country to the ground. It's not rational analysis or coherent reasoning. It's tribalism at its core.
legitster 2y ago
Trump recently "reTruthed" a video that claimed he is intentionally tanking the stock market to drive down interest rates. Today he called on Jerome Powell to lower interest rates despite the fact that there is a massive looming inflation risk. Who in their right mind would care this much? Real estate investors: https://x.com/GrantCardone/status/1907993458687549892 https://x.com/GrantCardone/status/1907993458687549892 People were worried about Trump launching a coupe on the government. In the meantime, this is a coupe over the US economy - this is a blatant attempt to hand economic power from business investors to land investors. From industry to land wealth. Trump is a capitalist trojan horse. He says it himself that he does not believe in competition. That the best/first brand should win and the others should lose. The most famous person should get the job over some nerd. He inherently does not believe in markets as a source of wealth.
- pstuart 2y ago
  Crash the market and let the oligarchs buy up distressed assets...
  - spwa4 2y ago
    Oh come on. Not really no. He is purely looking out for one person: himself. Why would a large commercial real estate investor who's been losing money hand over fist since COVID want to massively lower interest rates and through stocks tanking gain incredible leverage versus companies that rent his properties? It is purely his own personal advantage. As per usual.
    - pstuart 2y ago
      Understood on his personal motives. But his enablers want in on the action too -- that's the whole point of their fealty. I've had years to deal with this guy's antics and I'm still agog at how well he's created a literal cult. The only thing respectable about him is his acumen for playing the media and the peanut gallery.
treetalker 2y ago
[flagged]
techpineapple 2y ago
Ever since the election, there's been a lot of talk about markets as good prediction engines, why did everyone seem to miss this one?
- tim333 2y ago
  Markets make rational calculations. I'm not sure how you could have rationally predicted this. For all I know he'll scrap it all on Monday. It's a bit random.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - tyleo 2y ago
    This is a winning comment IMO. Trump is like a random walk with a high multiplier. Tariffs could go away on Monday… or inexplicably be doubled.
- netsharc 2y ago
  Hasn't there been too many "Surely they can't be that stupid/incompetent?", starting with "Hillary is surely going to win it"... and until yesterday everyone thought "Surely the regime in charge of the world's biggest economy isn't going to agree to the geriartic-in-a-full-diaper[1] wanting to implement his first-grader logic of how the world economy should work?". [1] "I’ve heard from a reliable source, that Trump smells of soiled diapers, Axe Body Spray and hotdog burps.": https://www.indy100.com/politics/trump/trump-smell-kinzinger-election https://www.indy100.com/politics/trump/trump-smell-kinzinger...
- dachworker 2y ago
  Because he is backed by a bunch of billionaires and everyone is trying to figure out why they are shooting themselves in the foot.
Clubber 2y ago
It's a multitude of things. - High interest rates trying to combat inflation. - AI, tech's latest, greatest thing is looking like a flop, at least from hype perspective. - Tariffs. It will go back up after a quarter or three I suspect, once everyone has adjusted and everything has stabilized. It always does. Good time to buy soon if you have the scratch.
- sofixa 2y ago
  1 and 2 have been constant for months now. In fact, rates have already started going down after inflation did. So no, it's mostly the tariffs.
  - Clubber 2y ago
    The market was/is hyper inflated like 2001. It usually takes several things to finally force a correction.
- Tadpole9181 2y ago
  This is delusional. The stock tanked literally the moment the board came out. Futures went -5% across the board. The actual minute China announced retaliation: boom.
  - Clubber 2y ago
    Tariffs were the catalyst, but high interest rates certainly put downward pressure on markets, which was the intent, to cool inflation. Also the profitability underperformance of AI is very similar to all the .com companies who constantly lost money but had soaring stock prices. Companies like Microsoft and Google have poured billions into AI and it doesn't look like they are going to get a ROI any time soon.
s3r3nity 2y ago
No, boomers and NGO's who raided the coffers blew it and left us with $36 trillion in debt, along with $1.2 trillion on _just the interest payments_ - which is more than the US spends on Defense. Now we can't build anything, and the other side is still holding out hope that eventually we'll be able to fix by just taxing more - despite the fact that Congress won't even vote to prevent themselves from insider trading...which means the middle class will continue to bear the downward pressure.
- sofixa 2y ago
  Which NGOs? > Now we can't build anything Yeah, this isn't due to the debt. Most infrastructure projects in the US are disasters (usually due to layers of outsourcing, tons of consultants, corruption, lack of competence) that cost multiple times their equivalents elsewhere in developed countries. It's exactly like in healthcare - the US spends more to get less than similarly developed countries. The amounts available to spend aren't the issue here, the terrible use is.
- Yoric 2y ago
  There's definitely a lot of that. As far as I understand, however, there's not much of a path between the current tariff measures and reducing the US debt. Especially not with the tax cuts or if war with China is still in the books.
- mindslight 2y ago
  You do realize this "debt" is denominated in the currency that the US itself controls, and can create and destroy at will, right? You cannot analyze this with the logic of household finances. The debt owed to bond holders is our and other countries continuing to buy into the American system. And the "debt" owed to other government agencies (including the Fed) is nothing more than a political martingale, to support the Republicans' kayfabe "fiscal responsibility" of the past forty years, where they sabotaged investments in our society so they could give away the wealth to banksters instead.
- watwut 2y ago
  The debt goes up during republican governments much more then during democrat ones. If you cared about debt, you would voted democrats.
steveBK123 2y ago
Trump is doing exactly the craziest versions of the stuff he promised to do, without guardrails and 'adults in the room' of his first admin. Maybe its for the best so people are finally rid of this madness.
goatlover 2y ago
I hope people start taking Trump seriously now when he's talking about impeaching judges, critical media being illegal, running for a third term and taking over sovereign nations.
dachworker 2y ago
Two things. 1. The tariffs have not yet been felt. This is all projection. Once people feel the tariffs things are going to get much worse. 2. China has already retaliated. EU will announce retaliatory tariffs next week. Trump is likely to take it as a challenge and double down.
- steveBK123 2y ago
  Agreed and its not just "prices will be higher". You can pretty reasonably expect goods shortages as the entire global economy tries to re-adjust supply chains to more tariff friendly domiciles. Of course everyone will be doing so at the same time, competing for the same finite factor capacity. For example - If your Nike right now for example, you might be winding down Vietnam production volume and trying to spin up more volume in existing country footprints, while also trying to find new factories there as well. And then those suppliers will be looking for new suppliers for shoestrings and metal eyelets and 100 other things. And those suppliers will be searching for new suppliers of cotton, polyester, steel, cardboard, etc. There is zero chance this happens without cost AND disruption! So things can get worse before they get worse!
- kcplate 2y ago
  I keep asking this of people making the argument of “when tariffs are felt…”? Where do you think they will be felt and by who? My guess is among Trump supporters, especially among those solid blue collar middle class vocal MAGA ones, most of these tariffs will not be felt in any really meaningful way. The tariffs that might affect the middle class (basically east Asia) will be the first ones that end up negotiating them away before American consumers feel them…because it’s in those countries best interest and they know it. The biggest danger to Trump from these tariffs are from the GOP politicians and conservative retirees and nearing retirement age who will not be happy with the stock market if it doesn’t stabilize soon. The price increases don’t hurt them, it’s the impact on their portfolios.
  - watwut 2y ago
    Solid blue collar people will pay most of it in form of more expensive cloth, food, cars ... everything. The poorer you are, the more you will feel it. If you are rich, prices going up by 20% are nothing. If you are middle class, it is annoying. If you are poor, it is disaster. Plus, truly rich are getting lower taxes. Tariffs are partially meant to offset those looses.
kstrauser 2y ago
This is, bar none, the stupidest self-own on a national level I've ever seen, and that includes Brexit. These idiotic moves just erased a few trillion dollars of national wealth without getting anything in return. For the rest of my life, if anyone ever again unironically says we need a businessman for president, I will laugh in their face.
- ben_w 2y ago
  In fairness, not all businessmen have multiple bankruptcies, two impeachements, and 34 felony convictions.
  - kstrauser 2y ago
    Very true, and somehow completely overlooked by the sizable chunk of the population who mystifyingly still believed he was good at it. I'm at a loss.
    - xnx 2y ago
      Trump is a poor person's idea of what a rich person is.
- littlexsparkee 2y ago
  Being able to run an enterprise well (and there's plenty of evidence to the contrary) is no guarantee of being able to direct an entire economy.
  - kstrauser 2y ago
    The scale's just tiny in comparison. Walmart's a huge company with about 2M global employees. That's nothing compared to the US-sized decisions a president has to make. And Walmart's CEO doesn't have to direct a military, too.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- 2y ago
fidotron 2y ago
One of the great oddities of this whole episode is watching people that have complained about unfettered free markets for years or decades suddenly become latter day Milton Friedman absolutists. Being of the libertarian side of things it has been deeply strange watching profoundly protectionist countries suddenly preaching the importance of the free trade they have been busy obstructing. While the world swings from one authoritarian brand to another it does feel like a lonely place here for those of us that just want less intervention in everything.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- dachworker 2y ago
  There is nothing wrong with protectionist measures per se. These tariffs are just not set in reality. They demand the impossible, based on false premises. This won't happen. Therefore an economic recession will unfold.
EPWN3D 2y ago
I'm sorry, but how did Wall St "blow it"? Is the piece making the case that if this sell-off had started in January, then Trump wouldn't have magicked up these tariffs?
- littlexsparkee 2y ago
  I took it to mean if WS had stridently objected and lobbied against it. I didn't hear any unified opposition.
llm_nerd 2y ago
After months of talking about replacing income tax with tariffs, and his revered External Revenue Service replacing the IRS with trillions in tariff income per year, and just this morning saying that he'll never change his mind on this so manufacturers need to rush back (I guess Americans yearn for the $4 a day jobs making t-shirts or something), rapidly Trump and his sycophants are, in the face of market obliteration and literally everyone with a brain saying how dumb this all is, claiming it's a grand negotiating strategy. By mid-day various Trump supplicants like his sprog and Ackman were pretending there was a mad rush to negotiate the best terms first. Vietnam, for instance, supposedly is on the phone "negotiating". But what is Vietnam going to negotiate? It has negligible trade barriers or tariffs -- we all realize the reciprocal thing is a ridiculous lie -- and an income per capita of like $2,500. Vietnam cannot fix the fact that they're cheap labour that quite literally benefits the US lifestyle. In other words, after this profoundly stupid, catastrophically economically ignorant debacle, they're trying to back out yet again. It is simply staggering how much of an idiocracy the US has become. In any normal government this clown would have people stopping him from this insanity. Instead he has slobbering bootlickers like Howard Lutnick trying to rationalize every bit of insanity. And things will not return back to normal. Hundreds of billions of dollars of damage have already been done to the US, and this time they aren't going to fixed by another backtrack.
RickJWagner 2y ago
Note that the Shiller ratio is still at 31.3. Stocks are still historically expensive, and have much room to decline further. Seeking peace of mind? Proceed to Bogleheads.org and read.
imartin2k 2y ago
The markets, while often right after a while, can be a bit slow. I remember the weeks in February/March 2020. The writing about the upcoming global pandemic was on the wall, yet I had enough time to calmly sell all my stocks during the week before everything came crashing down. Same slowness with the reaction to Deepseek recently.

Knowing nearly nothing about the stock market, I say some time has to pass before we truly know whether these current (and probably temporary) consequences will persist. I mean, people sign the death sentences of companies that have gradual decline of their stock prices over the course of some mere two months... and then it rebounds, and then you check the one-year graphs and are wondering why were you worried. So I don't know. Is it really so bad? Honest question. I am a layman.

matthewdgreen 2y ago
Right now countries around the world are re-organizing their trading patterns in ways that will have permanent effects. Even if Trump cancels the tariffs tomorrow, he would have to convince the rest of the world that he'll never do anything like this again -- and that actually he (and the US) are reliable trading partners. I just can't see how he'd do it if he wanted to, and I don't think he wants to.
- pdimitar 2y ago
  That makes sense on the outset, thank you. Any details on that re-organization of trading patterns?
  - matthewdgreen 2y ago
    We don't know because it's literally day 2, but e.g.,: https://www.axios.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-canada-europe-allies https://www.axios.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-canada-europe...
- baal80spam 2y ago
  > Right now countries around the world are re-organizing their trading patterns in ways that will have permanent effects. I would say that during COVID it was much, MUCH more serious. And yet here we are, back in years long bull market.
  - piva00 2y ago
    Just took some trillions to be printed across the world to be ingested by financial markets to get into it. No biggie.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    I think in the pandemic everyone knew it would end at some point, just not when. With Trump… he's already talking about a third term, despite the constitution.
  - sn9 2y ago
    COVID was basically an act of god that effected everyone and for whom no single actor could be blamed. This is the thoughtless incineration of trust in a network of relationships, and that has to be earned back. It's unclear how long that will take even if the GOP loses the next few presidential elections given how much US policy can change from one term to the next. The world will be waiting to see if Trumpism ends with Trump or if it becomes something they have to account for possibly taking power every four years. This has ramifications for any long-term investment into the US like factories and manufacturing. The risk has just shot up and will be much slower to come down.
- fleischhauf 2y ago
  it even goes beyond trump unfortunately. how can others be sure that we won't someone like him again or worse in 8 years from now. Our system does not have safeguards against lunatics like him I would not trust the US either if I were from some other country.
- mindslight 2y ago
  The Atlantic blew it, by continuing to equivocate around whether a "trade deficit" should be considered bad in the first place. Like all these Orwellian upside-down terms [0], it should really be called a trade surplus, as in we are getting more stuff from the other country than we're giving to them! Like duh, this is a no-brainer beneficial and enviable position. And Trump's goal is to end this, presumably to turn this country into an impoverished work camp ruled over by hollow charlatans like himself. [0] eg "the deficit" should really be named the surplus as it's money representing the collected proceeds from our world wide demurrage currency that other countries still keep buying into because using it is just that advantageous.
legitster 2y ago
I agree with your point to a certain degree. I think we should be willing to try bad/risky ideas occasionally if just to remind ourselves why they are bad. However: 1. It can take years to make something and seconds to break it. These changes are so drastic and damaging that we may permanently set our economy back decades, especially when if other countries no longer trust us. 2. It puts a lot of faith in politicians to admit mistakes. The disastrous trade policies of the 1930s were never gotten rid of until after they led to WWII.
- littlexsparkee 2y ago
  It's like touching the stovetop after already having been burned, why would you do it? It's not like the tariffs promised were well thought out / structured to actually boost FDI and domestic manufacturing.
goatlover 2y ago
The current one-year graph is now in negative territory. And economists are saying there's a good chance we're headed for a global recession. The stagflation of the 70s is a real possibility, although employment news for March was good.

linotype 2y ago

No, half of America’s voters blew it. The market is just expressing the consequences.

azemetre 2y ago
The odd part is that Congress, at any time, can revoke these tariffs but are choosing not to do so because they need them for the tax cuts the GOP will legislate later this year. The only sad thing during this whole ordeal is how ineffectual democratic politicians are... especially when they personally dealt with minority parties stopping them quite easily for the last 15 years. You'd think they'd learn some lessons but their failure to seize the moment is the only consistency they have.
- m463 2y ago
  I thought they are a negotiating tactic for countries that have their own anti-us tariffs.
  - ndsipa_pomu 2y ago
    Which countries are those?
    - m463 2y ago
      I read about some here... https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/regulating-imports-with-a-reciprocal-tariff-to-rectify-trade-practices-that-contribute-to-large-and-persistent-annual-united-states-goods-trade-deficits/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/regu... don't know if they're cherry-picking
      - ben_w 2y ago
        Trump put tariffs on everywhere, including an island with no humans separately to the country which owns that island. And from previous statements, Trump's idea of "anti-US tariff" seems to include the EU's VAT, which is sales tax that everyone including local supplies pays. So while some of that might be cherry picking, the reasoning overall is obvious nonsense, which is worse.

redwood 2y ago

Wall Street or at least hedge funds love this kind of volatility

Deprogrammer9 2y ago

This is what Trump & Elon wanted all along. They even said it outright duh.

dpkirchner 2y ago
That's what gets me. Trump has been telling us he was going to tank the stock market and increase unemployment -- it was practically his entire platform. Why are so many people acting surprised?
- spwa4 2y ago
  Can you provide a link?
  - dpkirchner 2y ago
    It was in basically every campaign rally, wasn't it? He brought up tariffs and shrinking the government. Obviously tariffs are terrible for economies, as is firing hundreds of thousands of people.
- idle_zealot 2y ago
  He also says he wants to bring back well-paid American jobs, and promises prosperity. The problem is that we've allowed a remarkable portion of the population to become so despondent and dismissive of con artistry that they're willing to write anything they don't like off as bluster and believe only the parts convenient to them at the moment. Simultaneously this group lacks the ability to perform the analysis necessary to make predictions about what parts he actually means. A normalization of dishonesty and an unsatisfactory status quo, with only one person offering anything that sounds like change.
- llm_nerd 2y ago
  This isn't accurate. He, being a guy quite literally facing prison time if he didn't win, promised untold riches for all Americans if he won. An era of prosperity. That everything would be nothing but greatness from a newly respected super power. I mean...anyone with any reason knew it was outrageous nonsense, of the worst sort of political puffery. Basically a cliche of the worst political nonsense. He and his supplicants started the "okay, maybe things will be bad for a while" weeks after his inauguration when it was blatantly obvious that it was all ridiculous lies. His supplicants are now talking about how Americans should feel empowered going without goods and luxuries. That's the thing about liars. It's like with DOGE starting by getting the cult all excited about the imaginary $5000 cheque they would all get from all those easy savings, but after a few months, when it is blatantly obvious that the deficit has gone up (and thus far there have been exactly 0 cases of fraud found), there'll be a different tune. Same thing about his team of cybercriminal misfits who claim they're going to super rewrite everything -- anyone who has worked in this field long enough have had to endure incompetent clowns like that, and six months in we'll hear a list of "why the code they inherited was the worst code in the world, and..."

littlexsparkee 2y ago

https://archive.ph/3GTsu https://archive.ph/3GTsu wild that we wouldn't be here if folks had taken the talking points seriously, but because they could be brushed aside as bombast, they came to pass.

steveBK123 2y ago
It's the constant playbook of the trump explainer/apologists: * He's just being bombastic * It's just a negotiation tool * Sure he's doing it but it's going to be a narrow policy * Fine its broad but it's just temporary * Yeah its broad and permanent but it won't be too harmful * Actually it's a great idea and he's smart for doing it
- valbaca 2y ago
  Reminds me of the Narcissist's Prayer: That didn't happen. And if it did, it wasn't that bad. And if it was, that's not a big deal. And if it is, that's not my fault. And if it was, I didn't mean it. And if I did, you deserved it.
  - steveBK123 2y ago
    The crazy thing is I know otherwise intelligent people who voted for Trump, but make arguments in his defense that 75% sound like the most jaded #resistlib never trumper take, until he gets to the end. Almost word for word this week was like- Trump is a conman, you can't believe half of what he says. Trump doesn't deliver half of what he promises. He isn't very smart, just cares about his own image and ego. He is addicted to doing substanceless deals and creating crises he can do these nothing deals to resolve. So DOGE isn't real, he isn't gonna cut spending, he's gonna continue growing deficit, he won't drain the swamp or build a wall or repeal Obamacare. And the closer is "And given all that there's no way Trump crashes the economy". I just do not get this cult. It's an addiction to "owning the libs" at all costs.
    - sn9 2y ago
      I think what explains it best is they're so allergic to admitting the outgroup is right that they would sooner burn the entire country to the ground. It's not rational analysis or coherent reasoning. It's tribalism at its core.

legitster 2y ago

Trump recently "reTruthed" a video that claimed he is intentionally tanking the stock market to drive down interest rates. Today he called on Jerome Powell to lower interest rates despite the fact that there is a massive looming inflation risk. Who in their right mind would care this much? Real estate investors: https://x.com/GrantCardone/status/1907993458687549892 https://x.com/GrantCardone/status/1907993458687549892 People were worried about Trump launching a coupe on the government. In the meantime, this is a coupe over the US economy - this is a blatant attempt to hand economic power from business investors to land investors. From industry to land wealth. Trump is a capitalist trojan horse. He says it himself that he does not believe in competition. That the best/first brand should win and the others should lose. The most famous person should get the job over some nerd. He inherently does not believe in markets as a source of wealth.

pstuart 2y ago
Crash the market and let the oligarchs buy up distressed assets...
- spwa4 2y ago
  Oh come on. Not really no. He is purely looking out for one person: himself. Why would a large commercial real estate investor who's been losing money hand over fist since COVID want to massively lower interest rates and through stocks tanking gain incredible leverage versus companies that rent his properties? It is purely his own personal advantage. As per usual.
  - pstuart 2y ago
    Understood on his personal motives. But his enablers want in on the action too -- that's the whole point of their fealty. I've had years to deal with this guy's antics and I'm still agog at how well he's created a literal cult. The only thing respectable about him is his acumen for playing the media and the peanut gallery.

treetalker 2y ago

[flagged]

techpineapple 2y ago

Ever since the election, there's been a lot of talk about markets as good prediction engines, why did everyone seem to miss this one?

tim333 2y ago
Markets make rational calculations. I'm not sure how you could have rationally predicted this. For all I know he'll scrap it all on Monday. It's a bit random.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- tyleo 2y ago
  This is a winning comment IMO. Trump is like a random walk with a high multiplier. Tariffs could go away on Monday… or inexplicably be doubled.
netsharc 2y ago
Hasn't there been too many "Surely they can't be that stupid/incompetent?", starting with "Hillary is surely going to win it"... and until yesterday everyone thought "Surely the regime in charge of the world's biggest economy isn't going to agree to the geriartic-in-a-full-diaper[1] wanting to implement his first-grader logic of how the world economy should work?". [1] "I’ve heard from a reliable source, that Trump smells of soiled diapers, Axe Body Spray and hotdog burps.": https://www.indy100.com/politics/trump/trump-smell-kinzinger-election https://www.indy100.com/politics/trump/trump-smell-kinzinger...
dachworker 2y ago
Because he is backed by a bunch of billionaires and everyone is trying to figure out why they are shooting themselves in the foot.

Clubber 2y ago

It's a multitude of things. - High interest rates trying to combat inflation. - AI, tech's latest, greatest thing is looking like a flop, at least from hype perspective. - Tariffs. It will go back up after a quarter or three I suspect, once everyone has adjusted and everything has stabilized. It always does. Good time to buy soon if you have the scratch.

sofixa 2y ago
1 and 2 have been constant for months now. In fact, rates have already started going down after inflation did. So no, it's mostly the tariffs.
- Clubber 2y ago
  The market was/is hyper inflated like 2001. It usually takes several things to finally force a correction.
Tadpole9181 2y ago
This is delusional. The stock tanked literally the moment the board came out. Futures went -5% across the board. The actual minute China announced retaliation: boom.
- Clubber 2y ago
  Tariffs were the catalyst, but high interest rates certainly put downward pressure on markets, which was the intent, to cool inflation. Also the profitability underperformance of AI is very similar to all the .com companies who constantly lost money but had soaring stock prices. Companies like Microsoft and Google have poured billions into AI and it doesn't look like they are going to get a ROI any time soon.

s3r3nity 2y ago

No, boomers and NGO's who raided the coffers blew it and left us with $36 trillion in debt, along with $1.2 trillion on _just the interest payments_ - which is more than the US spends on Defense. Now we can't build anything, and the other side is still holding out hope that eventually we'll be able to fix by just taxing more - despite the fact that Congress won't even vote to prevent themselves from insider trading...which means the middle class will continue to bear the downward pressure.

sofixa 2y ago
Which NGOs? > Now we can't build anything Yeah, this isn't due to the debt. Most infrastructure projects in the US are disasters (usually due to layers of outsourcing, tons of consultants, corruption, lack of competence) that cost multiple times their equivalents elsewhere in developed countries. It's exactly like in healthcare - the US spends more to get less than similarly developed countries. The amounts available to spend aren't the issue here, the terrible use is.
Yoric 2y ago
There's definitely a lot of that. As far as I understand, however, there's not much of a path between the current tariff measures and reducing the US debt. Especially not with the tax cuts or if war with China is still in the books.
mindslight 2y ago
You do realize this "debt" is denominated in the currency that the US itself controls, and can create and destroy at will, right? You cannot analyze this with the logic of household finances. The debt owed to bond holders is our and other countries continuing to buy into the American system. And the "debt" owed to other government agencies (including the Fed) is nothing more than a political martingale, to support the Republicans' kayfabe "fiscal responsibility" of the past forty years, where they sabotaged investments in our society so they could give away the wealth to banksters instead.
watwut 2y ago
The debt goes up during republican governments much more then during democrat ones. If you cared about debt, you would voted democrats.

steveBK123 2y ago

Trump is doing exactly the craziest versions of the stuff he promised to do, without guardrails and 'adults in the room' of his first admin. Maybe its for the best so people are finally rid of this madness.

goatlover 2y ago

I hope people start taking Trump seriously now when he's talking about impeaching judges, critical media being illegal, running for a third term and taking over sovereign nations.

dachworker 2y ago

Two things. 1. The tariffs have not yet been felt. This is all projection. Once people feel the tariffs things are going to get much worse. 2. China has already retaliated. EU will announce retaliatory tariffs next week. Trump is likely to take it as a challenge and double down.

steveBK123 2y ago
Agreed and its not just "prices will be higher". You can pretty reasonably expect goods shortages as the entire global economy tries to re-adjust supply chains to more tariff friendly domiciles. Of course everyone will be doing so at the same time, competing for the same finite factor capacity. For example - If your Nike right now for example, you might be winding down Vietnam production volume and trying to spin up more volume in existing country footprints, while also trying to find new factories there as well. And then those suppliers will be looking for new suppliers for shoestrings and metal eyelets and 100 other things. And those suppliers will be searching for new suppliers of cotton, polyester, steel, cardboard, etc. There is zero chance this happens without cost AND disruption! So things can get worse before they get worse!
kcplate 2y ago
I keep asking this of people making the argument of “when tariffs are felt…”? Where do you think they will be felt and by who? My guess is among Trump supporters, especially among those solid blue collar middle class vocal MAGA ones, most of these tariffs will not be felt in any really meaningful way. The tariffs that might affect the middle class (basically east Asia) will be the first ones that end up negotiating them away before American consumers feel them…because it’s in those countries best interest and they know it. The biggest danger to Trump from these tariffs are from the GOP politicians and conservative retirees and nearing retirement age who will not be happy with the stock market if it doesn’t stabilize soon. The price increases don’t hurt them, it’s the impact on their portfolios.
- watwut 2y ago
  Solid blue collar people will pay most of it in form of more expensive cloth, food, cars ... everything. The poorer you are, the more you will feel it. If you are rich, prices going up by 20% are nothing. If you are middle class, it is annoying. If you are poor, it is disaster. Plus, truly rich are getting lower taxes. Tariffs are partially meant to offset those looses.

kstrauser 2y ago

This is, bar none, the stupidest self-own on a national level I've ever seen, and that includes Brexit. These idiotic moves just erased a few trillion dollars of national wealth without getting anything in return. For the rest of my life, if anyone ever again unironically says we need a businessman for president, I will laugh in their face.

ben_w 2y ago
In fairness, not all businessmen have multiple bankruptcies, two impeachements, and 34 felony convictions.
- kstrauser 2y ago
  Very true, and somehow completely overlooked by the sizable chunk of the population who mystifyingly still believed he was good at it. I'm at a loss.
  - xnx 2y ago
    Trump is a poor person's idea of what a rich person is.
littlexsparkee 2y ago
Being able to run an enterprise well (and there's plenty of evidence to the contrary) is no guarantee of being able to direct an entire economy.
- kstrauser 2y ago
  The scale's just tiny in comparison. Walmart's a huge company with about 2M global employees. That's nothing compared to the US-sized decisions a president has to make. And Walmart's CEO doesn't have to direct a military, too.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
2y ago

fidotron 2y ago

One of the great oddities of this whole episode is watching people that have complained about unfettered free markets for years or decades suddenly become latter day Milton Friedman absolutists. Being of the libertarian side of things it has been deeply strange watching profoundly protectionist countries suddenly preaching the importance of the free trade they have been busy obstructing. While the world swings from one authoritarian brand to another it does feel like a lonely place here for those of us that just want less intervention in everything.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
dachworker 2y ago
There is nothing wrong with protectionist measures per se. These tariffs are just not set in reality. They demand the impossible, based on false premises. This won't happen. Therefore an economic recession will unfold.

EPWN3D 2y ago

I'm sorry, but how did Wall St "blow it"? Is the piece making the case that if this sell-off had started in January, then Trump wouldn't have magicked up these tariffs?

littlexsparkee 2y ago
I took it to mean if WS had stridently objected and lobbied against it. I didn't hear any unified opposition.

llm_nerd 2y ago

After months of talking about replacing income tax with tariffs, and his revered External Revenue Service replacing the IRS with trillions in tariff income per year, and just this morning saying that he'll never change his mind on this so manufacturers need to rush back (I guess Americans yearn for the $4 a day jobs making t-shirts or something), rapidly Trump and his sycophants are, in the face of market obliteration and literally everyone with a brain saying how dumb this all is, claiming it's a grand negotiating strategy. By mid-day various Trump supplicants like his sprog and Ackman were pretending there was a mad rush to negotiate the best terms first. Vietnam, for instance, supposedly is on the phone "negotiating". But what is Vietnam going to negotiate? It has negligible trade barriers or tariffs -- we all realize the reciprocal thing is a ridiculous lie -- and an income per capita of like $2,500. Vietnam cannot fix the fact that they're cheap labour that quite literally benefits the US lifestyle. In other words, after this profoundly stupid, catastrophically economically ignorant debacle, they're trying to back out yet again. It is simply staggering how much of an idiocracy the US has become. In any normal government this clown would have people stopping him from this insanity. Instead he has slobbering bootlickers like Howard Lutnick trying to rationalize every bit of insanity. And things will not return back to normal. Hundreds of billions of dollars of damage have already been done to the US, and this time they aren't going to fixed by another backtrack.

RickJWagner 2y ago

Note that the Shiller ratio is still at 31.3. Stocks are still historically expensive, and have much room to decline further. Seeking peace of mind? Proceed to Bogleheads.org and read.

imartin2k 2y ago

The markets, while often right after a while, can be a bit slow. I remember the weeks in February/March 2020. The writing about the upcoming global pandemic was on the wall, yet I had enough time to calmly sell all my stocks during the week before everything came crashing down. Same slowness with the reaction to Deepseek recently.