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A huge difference the 2025 crisis is done by 1 person over a 2 month span, it was entirely predictable with even a modicum of economic literacy, and entirely av

A huge difference the 2025 crisis is done by 1 person over a 2 month span, it was entirely predictable with even a modicum of economic literacy, and entirely avoidable. Yes 2008 was also avoidable and a lapse in economic judgement, but no one saw it coming until it happened. This one was obvious from the beginning.

mcphage 2y ago
> This one was obvious from the beginning. And yet the markets didn’t price that in.
- alabastervlog 2y ago
  They just kept thinking he wouldn't really do it. And he still hasn't! Most of the tariffs, AFAIK, haven't kicked in yet. His "they start at midnight" stuff in his long ramble-fest appears to have been BS. I think there's a wave on the 9th, and the last big wave is the 2nd of May. The current fall is because he took a big step closer to doing it, and did a little of it. The chance he won't go all the way is priced in, so there's plenty of room to fall as those dates get closer.
- BlackjackCF 2y ago
  Because nobody wanted to believe that the US government would decide to self-own this hard.
  - mcphage 2y ago
    But that was his entire campaign: we’re going to shoot ourselves in the face, and it will be the best thing ever for everyone. So maybe someone bought into the “it will be the best thing ever”, fine, but if they bought into that but not the “we’re going to shoot ourselves in the face”, then what did they believe? The effect will happen but the cause won’t?
- jmclnx 2y ago
  The people I know in market finance fully believed Trump was bluffing and salivating at his upcoming Tax Cuts. I told them I am very worried about the tariffs and I expect it to happen, but they could not believe Trump would be that stupid. So I really hope the Dems can stop these tax cuts and force Wall Street to go after Trump and friends.
- 1270018080 2y ago
  I mean the extraordinarily negative effects of the tariffs are obvious, not whether he would do something this stupid or not.
bryanlarsen 2y ago
Unlike what "The Big Short" would have you believe, there are lots of people who saw 2008 coming. The American property market bubble was on the cover of the Economist many times in the decade prior to 2008. However, the collapse came a lot later than many people expected, so many people who correctly shorted the market got burned via coverage calls before the market collapsed.
- 1270018080 2y ago
  Lots of people have been crying housing collapse for the last 15 years too.

mcphage 2y ago

> This one was obvious from the beginning. And yet the markets didn’t price that in.

alabastervlog 2y ago
They just kept thinking he wouldn't really do it. And he still hasn't! Most of the tariffs, AFAIK, haven't kicked in yet. His "they start at midnight" stuff in his long ramble-fest appears to have been BS. I think there's a wave on the 9th, and the last big wave is the 2nd of May. The current fall is because he took a big step closer to doing it, and did a little of it. The chance he won't go all the way is priced in, so there's plenty of room to fall as those dates get closer.
BlackjackCF 2y ago
Because nobody wanted to believe that the US government would decide to self-own this hard.
- mcphage 2y ago
  But that was his entire campaign: we’re going to shoot ourselves in the face, and it will be the best thing ever for everyone. So maybe someone bought into the “it will be the best thing ever”, fine, but if they bought into that but not the “we’re going to shoot ourselves in the face”, then what did they believe? The effect will happen but the cause won’t?
jmclnx 2y ago
The people I know in market finance fully believed Trump was bluffing and salivating at his upcoming Tax Cuts. I told them I am very worried about the tariffs and I expect it to happen, but they could not believe Trump would be that stupid. So I really hope the Dems can stop these tax cuts and force Wall Street to go after Trump and friends.
1270018080 2y ago
I mean the extraordinarily negative effects of the tariffs are obvious, not whether he would do something this stupid or not.

bryanlarsen 2y ago

Unlike what "The Big Short" would have you believe, there are lots of people who saw 2008 coming. The American property market bubble was on the cover of the Economist many times in the decade prior to 2008. However, the collapse came a lot later than many people expected, so many people who correctly shorted the market got burned via coverage calls before the market collapsed.

1270018080 2y ago
Lots of people have been crying housing collapse for the last 15 years too.