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2025 Recession Indicators Hit Fashion and Wall Street at Once
- formerly_proven 2y agoIt's pretty hard as an indicator to miss this, considering that it's one of the very rare times a government loudly and proudly declares it's going to intentionally cause a recession.
- chmorgan_ 2y agosources? I can't find any Trump official that is claiming they are trying to intentionally cause a recession.
- guerrilla 2y agoThey have been told many times and have stated that they accept that as a consequence.
- pupppet 2y agoI haven't announced I would post here therefore this post you are reading does not exist.
- sjsdaiuasgdia 2y ago“WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!),” Trump said in a social media post. “BUT WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID.” https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-trade-surplus-3010e6368545e2976feb5ac6b41e528e https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china... Or as Lord Farquaad put it: "Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I'm willing to make."
- raytopia 2y agoThere's a theory going around that the administration wants to crash the market so they can buy everything up for cheap, in a similar way to what happened in Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. At the same time though it seems like the current president has always been pro tariffs even though they are almost always bad for a economy, the reason why the admin is applying a lot more of them is because almost everyone left in the admin's circle is a yes men.
- myth_drannon 2y agonot buy up everything, but make US national debt servicing cheaper once the interest rates go down (and recession will bring them down). I highly doubt the current administration can play that kind of 3d chess. Just simple populism.
- NortySpock 2y ago"minimum 10% tariff on all imported goods and materials" certainly sounds like a way to increase costs. Increasing costs seems generally worse for an economy than decreasing costs. I feel like most people could follow this logical chain of reasoning to a conclusion of "thus you have a elevated risk for an economic recession compared to the state of affairs before the tariffs."
- MattGaiser 2y agoDoes he need to say the word recession? How direct does he need to be? https://time.com/7266187/trump-recession-tariffs-us-economy-ukraine-zelensky-conflict-interview/ https://time.com/7266187/trump-recession-tariffs-us-economy-...
- nostrademons 2y agohttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/kaboom-elon-musk-predicts-hardship-economic-turmoil-and-a-stock-market-crash-if-trump-wins-20483008 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kaboom-elon-musk-predicts-...
- belter 2y agoFrom five days before the election... https://www.vox.com/politics/381637/elon-musk-donald-trump-2024-election-temporary-hardship https://www.vox.com/politics/381637/elon-musk-donald-trump-2... “If Trump succeeds in forcing through mass deportations, combined with Elon hacking away at the government, firing people and reducing the deficit - there will be an initial severe overreaction in the economy…Market will tumble. But when the storm passes and everyone realizes we are on sounder footing, there will be a rapid recovery to a healthier, sustainable economy.” Musk replied, “Sounds about right.”
- bill_joy_fanboy 2y agoA lot of supporters of the trade restrictions don't care. They're working people who don't own a lot of stocks and all they've seen is their jobs sent overseas. To them, it doesn't even matter if things get "worse" for a while. Their life is already meeting every economic headwind imaginable.
- jgilias 2y agoThe unemployment rate is near historic lows. Apparently there’s plenty of jobs going round. Not that that’s going to last if actual economic headwinds hit the economy.
- 8note 2y agolabour participation rate is the number you want to be looking at - unemployment excludes people who have given up looking anectdotally, you dont see people dropping out of universities en masse because businesses are desperate for workers and willing to make it worth students while to put off or skip the education. you see that in and out in tech/software dev, but not across industries
- bill_joy_fanboy 2y agoYou believe the official government unemployment numbers? That's kind of like saying you believe the official government inflation numbers.
- tmpz22 2y ago> every economic headwind imaginable. Freaking what? Are they food insecure? Facing a military onslaught. Come on.
- bill_joy_fanboy 2y agoThis is quite an anti-worker comment. "They still have cereal and fast food and they're not getting shot so they're fine." LOL.
- eunos 2y agoI still remember when Inverted yield curve was enough to predict recession. Good times.
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- esafak 2y agoI remember when the GOP was the free trade party, and you had to look mercantilism up in the history books because it was dead. President McKinley, from the 1890s, is one of Trump's economic role models. https://fortune.com/2025/03/10/trump-william-mckinley-tariffs-gilded-age/ https://fortune.com/2025/03/10/trump-william-mckinley-tariff... I wonder how pre-MAGA GOP'ers are reconciling this new reality with their existing beliefs.
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- bryanlarsen 2y agoI remember when we had skilled helmsman that steered the US away from recession despite all the indicators like inverted yield curve screaming recession.
- eunos 2y agoProbably I'm wrong but if you can do stimulus ad infinitum there won't be recession, but you'll have inflation.
- bryanlarsen 2y agoYet it was that same administration that brought inflation back down to its targeted level.
- senderista 2y agoDems just need to spin these tariffs as the largest tax increase in US history (which is basically correct).
- davidw 2y agoEven Mike Pence came out and said that.
- Izikiel43 2y agoIs this a sign republicans in congress may do something?
- jghn 2y agoOnly a carefully selected subset. Just enough of the most vulnerable of them so they can be on record as being against this, but not enough of them to change any outcomes.
- ncallaway 2y agoI wouldn’t be surprised if we get enough Republicans in congress to pass a law taking the tariff power away from Trump, but Trump will veto that law. I would be quite surprised if we can get enough Republicans to override that veto
- fullshark 2y agoNo, Mike Pence is a villain to Trumpist republicans. He speaks for the old guard republicans who still think this is all just a temporary blip and populism will be forgotten in 4-8 years.
- trhway 2y agoand done purely on Presidential authority without Congress.
- AnimalMuppet 2y agoNo taxation without representation!
- hnpolicestate 2y agoWe were already in a deep recession for regular Americans starting in 2020. Double housing and transportation costs. The market crash just spreads the pain to the investment class and retired boomers.
- Izikiel43 2y agoSo, instead of striving for a better life, you are saying they took the approach if I'm going down I'm taking you with me?
- hnpolicestate 2y agoClass warfare is as old as time. It's your mistake to wave aside human nature.
- honkycat 2y agoI got downvoted here the other day for saying Republicans are low-information voters. My friends and countrymen: welcome to Trump's vision for the US. He is doing exactly what he said he would.
- rtp4me 2y agoAnd honestly, you should have been downvoted for calling them "low-information" voters. Not only is it condescending, you simply discounted them for being part of the "other" party. Perhaps they are very informed - maybe much more than you regarding the deficit, the economy, their frustrations, etc. It is great to have a spirited debate, but to call people derogatory names simply because they don't share your viewpoint is the wrong path to take.
- add-sub-mul-div 2y agoAnyone who isn't afraid of woke can see certain voters were demonstrably taken in by transparent demagoguery. There are consequences to actions and beliefs, criticism can happen, people are sometimes wrong and we can acknowledge that without pearl-clutching. "Low information" is specific and actionable, unlike "stupid". Sometimes one decision was better than the other and we can only progress by understanding that, despite any hurt feelings. Sorry, no participation trophies today!
- AlexandrB 2y ago> Anyone who isn't afraid of woke can see certain voters were demonstrably taken in by transparent demagoguery. How is this different than the decision-making process of many Democrat voters? Trying to make any rational arguments on "certain issues" gets you labelled as a fascist, racist, bigot or all of this (and more) at the same time. There's nothing rational about this kind of approach. It seems to me that the left has become lazy and often assumes that something must be rational because they believe it.
- honkycat 2y ago
- deepfriedchokes 2y agoHopefully all this will kill forever the idea that the GOP is the party of business. They’re the party of the rich, like the Democrats. When people say both parties are the same, this is what they’re talking about. Not the religion or social justice masks the parties try to hide behind.
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- mmooss 2y agoIt's both an interesting and tragic phenomenon that seems much broader: Plausibly, fashion is primarily about sex, especially at the ages when humans are most sexually active. And possibly changes in fashion are really second-order effects of changes in sex: The most shocking thing, researched and reported but I don't think people grasp the significance, is that young adults are having much less sex. Sex is among the most fundamental human drives. People can't stop themselves, which is why IMHO it gets such attempts to restrict it, by law and custom and shame, across time and place (to varying degrees). You can be sitting there, clearly knowing you shouldn't do it, and it can be very difficult to stop. All those efforts to stop people, by cultures, religions, governments, parents, etc. have widely failed - people still have pre-marital sex, commit adultry, get drunk and screw, hire prostitutes, watch porn, etc. (I'm not judging.) Incredibly, now something has actually managed to significantly reduce sexual activity - and among people who are perfectly free to do it. Has that happened before in history (serious question)? Where/when/who is it now happening for and not happening? Speculating on why is perilous without evidence - imho it's just disinformation. But whatever the cause(s), it's a signal of something very serious. Wearing plainer clothes is possibly just a follow-on effect.
- weard_beard 2y agoAnecdotally it’s the triple whammy of depression/anxiety, social isolation, and scarcity/precarity. The precariousness I think is more of a factor as the long term poor have still managed to survive historically. The randomness and changing social safety nets and possibility of needing to migrate to survive is probably a big factor. It feels like we’re all bracing for the end of the world all the time. Procreation (or lack of it) is voting “no candidate”. It’s the only control anyone has over their life today.
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