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> This is Russia's and China's liberation day With the tariffs in Asia (Vietnam: 46%, Thailand: 36%, Cambodia: 49%) it feels like a good opportunity for China
by cjrp 2y ago
> This is Russia's and China's liberation day
With the tariffs in Asia (Vietnam: 46%, Thailand: 36%, Cambodia: 49%) it feels like a good opportunity for China to increase their trade/influence in the region as well.
- hliyan 2y agoSri Lankan here. They just slapped 44% on us (higher than on China). The country is just trying to recover from the economic crisis and the sovereign debt default of 2022, so we have very high import duties on certain items (e.g. vehicles) to discourage dollar outflow. Looks like the US just saw that as hostile and decided to strike back.
- re-thc 2y ago> They just slapped 44% on us (higher than on China). Not true, China's is on top of its existing tariffs.
- Danmctree 2y agoThe numbers appear to be based on the trade deficit alone, not on any differences in import duties etc.
- matt-p 2y agoYou're right I think it's MAX(10%,(imports-exports)/imports) as a general tariff plus targeted reciprocal (in some cases, not all)
- throwaway2037 2y agoThat is correct. It was empircally proven here: https://www.ft.com/content/c4f9c7f6-0753-4458-840e-bcde1b74ae7e https://www.ft.com/content/c4f9c7f6-0753-4458-840e-bcde1b74a... To quote Alex Scaggs of FT: Take the US’s goods trade deficit with any particular country, and divide it by the total amount of goods imported from that country. Cut that percentage in half, and there’s the US’s “reciprocal” tariff rate. All countries tested against this theory are correct within 1-2 percent.
- credit_guy 2y agoThis is interesting. I don't know the details of Trump's tariff policy, but if this is correct, it would follow that the policy should have some mechanism to reduce the tariffs as the trade imbalance is reduced.
- brookst 2y agoNot sure why? It’s an irrational policy not based on any kind of sense. I don’t think I’d expect it to be logically consistent. Besides, what do you do with a country where US is a net exporter? Provide subsidies for imports? It’s all drunk monkeys driving a train… there is no economic theory to expect consistency from.
- libertine 2y agoUnless they think that because it came out of an Excel formula, there's a logic behind it - and honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if these folks have that insight. > Besides, what do you do with a country where US is a net exporter? Provide subsidies for imports? In this instance, I believe the thought pattern is: "we're being smart here".
- blacklion 2y agoIt does nothing with "hostile". For China, yes, but for most other countries tariff is simply ($USA-import - $USA-export)/$USA-import. That simply, numbers are check for many many countries. I'm sure, USA imports a lot of tea from Sri Lanka and some fruits and wood/furniture. (Freshly made Sri Lankian tea is the best, IMHO! I mean, proper tea, not all these grasses, berries and synthetic aromas which are named "tea" in modern western world).
- JKCalhoun 2y agoI would have assumed it was Sri Lankan textiles that were a major cause of the tariffs.
- mycatisblack 2y agoAny recommendations for tea brands/products?
- blacklion 2y agoUnfortunately, no, as I've changed country of living year ago and still can not find way to good tea in new place. Also, I'm not sure, that recommendations from Europe is actual for you even if I have one. But really best "black" tea of my life (and I spent most of my life in country with strong tea culture, where loose tea and teapots are still very popular, and not, it is not UK!) was bough at random tea factory in the middle of nowhere in Sri Lanka, packed in simple 1kg vacuum bags. No brand, no name, only date of picking (two days ago) and packing (today at the day of bought) :-)
- griffzhowl 2y agoAhmad Ceylon Tea is a good strong black tea. They mainly trade in Middle Eastern markets I think so check Arab/Indian grocery shops
- hliyan 2y agoAs a local, the brand called Dilmah is just a regular supermarket brand for us, but I hear it's quite popular in places like Australia and New Zealand.
- bandrami 2y ago(waves from across Lake Beira) It's mind-boggling because the US has been trying very very hard to pull Sri Lanka away from China for a decade now
- testplzignore 2y agoI would be surprised if the current US administration even knows where Sri Lanka is, let alone our pre-Trump foreign policy with them.
- chris_wot 2y agoNot to mention 29% tariffs on Norfolk Island. Who hasn’t exported anything to the U.S. in years. And a 10% tariff on the Macdonald Islands, which has a population of zero (not including the penguins). Perhaps Trump thought he was taxing a fast food competitor? Fun fact: these are all internal territories of Australia. Why they get separate tariffs is weird.
- re-thc 2y ago> Not to mention 29% tariffs on Norfolk Island. Who hasn’t exported anything to the U.S. in years. Should have set that to 99% then eh?
- vincnetas 2y agoWell, you know, you can go even higher, you don't have to stop at 100% :) Infinity is the limit here ;D
- wvh 2y agoTax the 99% seems pretty accurate.
- sidewndr46 2y agoIt's a tariff, it could be infinity percent
- himinlomax 2y ago10% on British Indian Ocean Territories, whose sole inhabitants are US soldiers at the Diego Garcia base.
- dathinab 2y agoIt's what you get if you let people which don't know what they are doing make decision about things they don't really understand without being open for consulting because they know better using only oversimplified statistics which often don't tell even half the story. Or at lest it looks a lot like this, honestly from its patterns it looks a lot like the decision making done at a previous employee where someone who was expert in one field got a lot of decision power and decided they now know better in every field and dear anyone says otherwise.
- riffraff 2y ago> it feels like a good opportunity for China to increase their trade/influence in the region as well influence for sure. But trade? Vietnam/Thailand/Cambodia already have ~40% of their imports from China and 5% or so from the US, I don't think this tariff can realistically increase trade between China and SEA countries much.
- cjrp 2y agoWhat about the inverse though; Vietnam/Thailand/Cambodia increasing their exports to China?
- thebigjewbowski 2y agoChina has been trying to build up domestic markets for the past several years. With the US imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods it stands to reason that they’re not in a position to import from Vietnam, etc. because there will be domestic overproduction.
- giantg2 2y ago"because there will be domestic overproduction." Is that from a decrease in demand, or an increase in supply from other countries? I'm curious what the price elasticity of demand looks like for Chinese imports.
- darkwizard42 2y agoMy interpretation is: it’s domestic overproduction because China isn’t exporting as much to US so it will consume domestically and then not have need for imports from the other SE Asia countries.
- giantg2 2y agoMy question is more about where the US is then importing from. I assume some goods are more elastic than others. So will the US simply stop buying, or will it shift to buying elsewhere with lower tarrifs?
- Beijinger 2y agoThe Chinese don't want to buy anything, except raw materials. Their idea of trade is to sell products to you, not buy anything from you.
- vachina 2y agoAnd what’s wrong with that?
- Beijinger 2y agoDid not turn out too well the last time they sold tea, silk and porcelain and accumulated the vast majority of the world silver reserves. You don't want to buy anything? You don't need anything? The British had one thing the Chinese "needed".
- 15155 2y agoEventually, you are no longer producing goods domestically and they can raise prices or deny your ability to purchase.
- inatreecrown2 2y agoWhat about fashionable Brand stuff?
- jimmydoe 2y agoThat will continue to exist but less popular than they use to, as local fashion brand is catching up fast.
- Jensson 2y agoThe CCP maybe, but the Chinese people for sure want to buy products from other countries.
- jimmydoe 2y agoNo, they used to, but less and less now, bc Chinese goods are getting better, plus economic is tighter in recent years.