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People cared about the OpenAI drama when it looked like they might have some real edge and the future of AI depended on them. Now it’s clear the tech is cool bu

by JCM9 2y ago

People cared about the OpenAI drama when it looked like they might have some real edge and the future of AI depended on them. Now it’s clear the tech is cool but rapidly converging into a commodity with nobody having any edge that translates into a sustainable business model. In that reality they can drama all they want now, nobody really cares anymore.

darioush 2y ago
Yes and the open source models + local inference are progressing rapidly. This whole API idea is kind of limited by the fact that you need to RT to a datacenter + trust someone with all your data. Imagine when OpenAI has their 23&me moment in 2050 and a judge rules all your queries since 2023 are for sale to the highest bidder.
- ptero 2y ago
  It doesn't need to wait until 2050. The queries would be for sale as soon as they stop providing a competitive advantage.
- beeflet 2y ago
  Even worse for these LLM-as-a-service companies i that the utility of open source LLMs largely comes down to the customization: you can get a lot of utility by restricting token output, varying temperature, and lightly retraining them for specific applications. The use-cases for LLMs seem unexplored beyond basic chatbot stuff.
  - techjamie 2y ago
    I'm surprised at how little their utility for turning unstructured data into structured data, even with some margin of error, is discussed. It doesn't even take an especially large model to accomplish it, either. I would think entire industries could reform around having an LLM as a first pass on data, with software and/or human error checking at significant cost reduction over previous strategies.
    - mcpeepants 2y ago
      The software-based second pass is where the most value lies (and the hard problems)
moralestapia 2y ago
[flagged]
- lolinder 2y ago
  OpenAI is spending $2 for every $1 it earns. It's certainly eating its investors' lunch, but it's not a sustainable business yet and from all accounts doesn't have a clear plan for how to become one. Meanwhile, the ZIRP policies that made this kind of non-strategy strategy feasible are gone.
  - spwa4 2y ago
    I wouldn't worry. Retracting ZIRP policies gave governments 2 choices: reduce spending by ~10% on average (in Europe), or cheat and scheme to bring them back, on a 2 year timer. Interest rates raised, but came back down before the 2 years were even up (rate rise started 27 Jul 2022, Started coming back down 12 Jun 2024), governments have been caught cheating, and the number of central bankers replaced has gone up dramatically. Oh, and none of the governments have reduced spending. Literally not a single one. In fact, Germany has agreed to an unprecedented increase in debt financing of their government. In other words, ZIRP, even negative rates, are coming back, and a lot sooner than most people think. Your next house, despite everything that's happened, will be more expensive. But I doubt this will save either OpenAI or Tesler.
- dang 2y ago
  Regardless of how wrong someone is or you feel they are, can you please make your substantive points thoughtfully? This was not a good Hacker News comment, and you've unfortunately been doing this repeatedly lately. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
csallen 2y ago
There's more to business than tech. There's more to business than product. The software behind Facebook as an app wasn't particularly unique, yet it eclipsed the competition. The same could be said for Google. Google didn't even have any real lock-in for years, but it still owned consumer mindshare, which gave it the vast majority of search traffic, which made it one of the most valuable companies in the world. ChatGPT is in a similar position. The fact of the matter is, the average person knows what ChatGPT is and how to use it. Many hundreds of millions of normal people use ChatGPT weekly, and the number is growing. The same cannot be said of Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, or the various open source models. And the gap is massive. It's not even close. It's like 400M weekly ChatGPT actives vs 30M monthly Claude actives. So yes, the average Hacker News contrarian who thinks their tiny bubble represents the entire world might think that "nobody cares," in part because nobody they know cares, and in part because that assessment aligns with their own personal biases and desires. But anyone who's been paying attention to how internet behemoths grow for the past 30 years certainly still cares about OpenAI.
- mellosouls 2y ago
  The software behind Facebook as an app wasn't particularly unique, yet it eclipsed the competition. The same could be said for Google. I remember the search engines of the time and Google was a quantum leap. ChatGPT is even more revolutionary but whatever Google is now, once it was brilliant.
  - bagacrap 2y ago
    Useful search unlocked the web. I will take that over LLMs in their present state.
  - csallen 2y ago
    I agree, just saying, ChatGPT was a quantum leap, too. That's why it has all the consumer mindshare.
  - spacemadness 2y ago
    It gets more interesting the older I get seeing people speculate about the now vs. early internet without having lived through the 90s internet. My first response is "do you not remember what that was like?!" then I remember, no, in fact they might not have even been born yet.
TradingPlaces 2y ago
Selling tokens is likely to be a tough business in a couple of years

by JCM9 2y ago

darioush 2y ago

Yes and the open source models + local inference are progressing rapidly. This whole API idea is kind of limited by the fact that you need to RT to a datacenter + trust someone with all your data. Imagine when OpenAI has their 23&me moment in 2050 and a judge rules all your queries since 2023 are for sale to the highest bidder.

ptero 2y ago
It doesn't need to wait until 2050. The queries would be for sale as soon as they stop providing a competitive advantage.
beeflet 2y ago
Even worse for these LLM-as-a-service companies i that the utility of open source LLMs largely comes down to the customization: you can get a lot of utility by restricting token output, varying temperature, and lightly retraining them for specific applications. The use-cases for LLMs seem unexplored beyond basic chatbot stuff.
- techjamie 2y ago
  I'm surprised at how little their utility for turning unstructured data into structured data, even with some margin of error, is discussed. It doesn't even take an especially large model to accomplish it, either. I would think entire industries could reform around having an LLM as a first pass on data, with software and/or human error checking at significant cost reduction over previous strategies.
  - mcpeepants 2y ago
    The software-based second pass is where the most value lies (and the hard problems)

moralestapia 2y ago

[flagged]

lolinder 2y ago
OpenAI is spending $2 for every $1 it earns. It's certainly eating its investors' lunch, but it's not a sustainable business yet and from all accounts doesn't have a clear plan for how to become one. Meanwhile, the ZIRP policies that made this kind of non-strategy strategy feasible are gone.
- spwa4 2y ago
  I wouldn't worry. Retracting ZIRP policies gave governments 2 choices: reduce spending by ~10% on average (in Europe), or cheat and scheme to bring them back, on a 2 year timer. Interest rates raised, but came back down before the 2 years were even up (rate rise started 27 Jul 2022, Started coming back down 12 Jun 2024), governments have been caught cheating, and the number of central bankers replaced has gone up dramatically. Oh, and none of the governments have reduced spending. Literally not a single one. In fact, Germany has agreed to an unprecedented increase in debt financing of their government. In other words, ZIRP, even negative rates, are coming back, and a lot sooner than most people think. Your next house, despite everything that's happened, will be more expensive. But I doubt this will save either OpenAI or Tesler.
dang 2y ago
Regardless of how wrong someone is or you feel they are, can you please make your substantive points thoughtfully? This was not a good Hacker News comment, and you've unfortunately been doing this repeatedly lately. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

csallen 2y ago

There's more to business than tech. There's more to business than product. The software behind Facebook as an app wasn't particularly unique, yet it eclipsed the competition. The same could be said for Google. Google didn't even have any real lock-in for years, but it still owned consumer mindshare, which gave it the vast majority of search traffic, which made it one of the most valuable companies in the world. ChatGPT is in a similar position. The fact of the matter is, the average person knows what ChatGPT is and how to use it. Many hundreds of millions of normal people use ChatGPT weekly, and the number is growing. The same cannot be said of Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, or the various open source models. And the gap is massive. It's not even close. It's like 400M weekly ChatGPT actives vs 30M monthly Claude actives. So yes, the average Hacker News contrarian who thinks their tiny bubble represents the entire world might think that "nobody cares," in part because nobody they know cares, and in part because that assessment aligns with their own personal biases and desires. But anyone who's been paying attention to how internet behemoths grow for the past 30 years certainly still cares about OpenAI.

mellosouls 2y ago
The software behind Facebook as an app wasn't particularly unique, yet it eclipsed the competition. The same could be said for Google. I remember the search engines of the time and Google was a quantum leap. ChatGPT is even more revolutionary but whatever Google is now, once it was brilliant.
- bagacrap 2y ago
  Useful search unlocked the web. I will take that over LLMs in their present state.
- csallen 2y ago
  I agree, just saying, ChatGPT was a quantum leap, too. That's why it has all the consumer mindshare.
- spacemadness 2y ago
  It gets more interesting the older I get seeing people speculate about the now vs. early internet without having lived through the 90s internet. My first response is "do you not remember what that was like?!" then I remember, no, in fact they might not have even been born yet.

TradingPlaces 2y ago

Selling tokens is likely to be a tough business in a couple of years