8 ms·

Microsoft is pushing users and vendors to Macs and Linux

38 points by tanglesome 14y ago

gitarr 14y ago
I am absolutely sure that a change on the desktop market is coming and that open source operating systems will gain a nice percentage of the market share, if not the majority thereof. But this change will be a lot slower than we would like it to be. It'll come, but it'll take some time. We saw similar changes in the browser and the phone markets recently, it went faster there because it's an easier change for non-technical users. It's rather great that the floodgate is now open and that open source is slowly overtaking their proprietary software and operating system counterparts. It's also a fact though that Microsoft and surely others are trying to close them again, one approach is the "secure boot" nonsense for example. One can only hope (and of course, work on open source whenever possible) that they won't succeed in that.
- drzaiusapelord 14y ago
  This is EXACTLY the same argument when Vista came out, which was a subpar release, and yet another "Year of The Linux Desktop" was not upon us then nor is it now. This was also the same argument when XP came out. I remember the slashdot kiddies saying "Its Win2000 with fisher price colors! Mandrake will be the new desktop." Err, okay. I love FOSS, but the idea that Joe Sixpack is switching to Ubuntu because the start button is missing is a little overblown. I'm begining to feel sorry for MS's Windows product. Its a damned if you/damned if you don't scenario. If they don't innovate and do something different then they'll be criticized for being stale. When they do innovate they're criticized for confusing users and not sticking with the same tired WIMP formula. I get it, these critics are biased, but lets at least wait until the RTM gets in the hands of users before we call it a disaster. It might very well work out for MS. Win8 went from a joke on these forums to a brave OS after the MS surface announcement. Public opinion is quite fickle isn't it?
astrodust 14y ago
Microsoft's strength is that Windows 7 runs a corporation's crusty old legacy Windows applications better than any other operating system. If this somehow fails to be the case, corporations will switch to whatever platform provides this support better. It's not unthinkable that Linux could be made to run Windows XP vintage applications better than Windows 8 can.
- dpark 14y ago
  Windows 8 is still Windows. You can run all your "crusty old legacy Windows applications" just as you could on Windows 7. Disclaimer: Microsoft employee (not really relevant, but just in case ...)
  - sageikosa 14y ago
    Disclosure, not disclaimer :-)
    - dpark 14y ago
      That does sound more appropriate. :) Thanks.
  - takluyver 14y ago
    Unless you get the ARM version, which I believe is called WinRT. I think that could be the biggest problem for Microsoft. People are used to being able to install any old Windows application, but if you get the wrong kind of Windows 8, all those x86 applications won't run.
    - dpark 14y ago
      Right, and that's a legitimate concern. It's by no means going to drive people to Linux, though. WINE isn't going to run Windows apps better than Windows 8, and Linux on ARM isn't going to run x86 apps at all (except maybe in an emulation, which would be miserable).
- rbanffy 14y ago
sourc3 14y ago
I agree with this. I am not sure if I see a compelling reason why Win8 on desktop should take off for businesses. It will be a transitionary version just like how Vista was. Windows 8 tablets? Same story. Why would I as a consumer want to spend $600 to get a tablet with so many unknowns? What does it provide that the iPad currently does not provide? I keep wanting to find a good set of reasons but I can't. You just know what your $500-600 is getting you when you go to iPad and Android. Unless MS lowers the price point to $150-200 it will be a tough sell in my opinion. The software side of things are very different though. Being a .NET developer for years (after coming from UNIX) I find myself using Java and open source languages more and more often. If you are an ISV/entrepreneur I am just not sure if it is a good idea to bet the future of your organization on Microsoft's mercy. They keep changing languages/platforms like they change clothes lately. Nonetheless, the next three-four years will be fun to watch.
- Metrop0218 14y ago
  "get a tablet with so many unknowns?" There will be 0 unknowns a month after they get released. There are unknowns now because it is an unreleased product. Using that as a point against the success of the system is moronic.
  - ralfn 14y ago
    People are rightfully worried about the chicken-egg problem. Will 3rd parties support it? Well, does it have users? Will it have users? Well, is there third party support? Either the customers or the 3rd party developpers have to make the first gamble.
  - Shamanmuni 14y ago
    Are you sure? iOS has 5 years in the market and plenty of apps, Android 4 years and also plenty of apps. Both have matured and you probably know a geek or two who use them and can answer your questions. Windows 8 will be a newcomer with less apps at your disposal and probably no geek nearby to ask questions. Lots of unkowns for me. Face it, they are really late in the game this time.
andthejets 14y ago
Meh, I doubt it. Vendors can complain all they want but the average consumer is sure as hell not going to switch to linux. And if they wanted to switch to OSX then they probably have already bought a Mac. Everyone else wants Windows because they are used to it and it runs all their programs.
- TazeTSchnitzel 14y ago
  You sure? It might motivate vendors to, for instance, sell Ubuntu PCs. It's quite user-friendly. Who knows. I don't think it's likely, though.
  - andthejets 14y ago
    I mean its easy to make a nice interface for people who just browse and such. But it becomes a problem when people go: "Oh so does it have Word and all my other office products?" Open office and etc are all pretty poor replacements.
    - TazeTSchnitzel 14y ago
      You sure? I suspect for most people, they don't use enough features of Word for LibreOffice Writer to feel much different.
      - andthejets 14y ago
        Its not just about the feature set, its about using whats familiar for a lot of the "average" consumer.
        TazeTSchnitzel 14y ago
        Familiarity is an issue, but the newer generation are quicker to pick up new technology.
- disgruntledphd2 14y ago
IanDrake 14y ago
Pure link bait. Switch to Mac because MS is making their own (non-exclusive) hardware? Really? Has this guy forgotten the OS/hardware deal that you get with Apple? Windows 8 is dead because enterprises aren't planning to upgrade? Most just got to Windows 7, they don't like change, so they'll stay there for another 5-10 years. I doubt the writer believes anything he's written, but this is the nature of tech "journalism".
- comm_it 14y ago
  I agree with this. I've just got Windows 7 on my corporate desktop. Although there is wide adoption of Win 7 here, Win XP was running previously, and still is on a large number of machines, if this truly sucks the enterprise sector will just wait it out like they did with Vista.
- __chrismc 14y ago
  > Most just got to Windows 7, they don't like change, so they'll stay there for another 5-10 years This. The client I work for is still _testing_ Windows 7. Rollout won't happen for a while yet. Windows 8? Might get looked in 2016, I guess.
- drzaiusapelord 14y ago
  Sysadmin here. Yeah, I'm not hyped about 8 as I just got 7 going on here for everyone. 8 can wait, or more than likely 9 can wait a while too.
- rickmb 14y ago
  Is it somewhat realistic to assume enterprise IT is increasingly becoming irrelevant when it comes to the desktop? I mean, how insane is it when people have to work with technology on their job they've ditched 5-10 years ago at home for being too outdated to be even be give away? There comes a point where enterprise IT loses all credibility. At this pace, during my lifetime homeless people in third world countries will have phones that are more modern and powerful computers than office workers will have at their desk. The practices enterprise IT currently still holds on to don't seem sustainable to me.
Aloha 14y ago
I really believe Mac OS is the future of the consumer market. It's easy to use, complete, and has friendly people at any apple retailer to help you onboard yourself on to the system.
- rbanffy 14y ago
  Try to convince every other PC manufacturer to leave the consumer market. They may even die in the end, but they'll certainly try other things before it comes to that.
  - Aloha 14y ago
    Either Apple, or the Apple Model. Hardware >> Software >> Support. All from one manufacturer.
    - rbanffy 14y ago
      Wouldn't achieve the network effects. They'd probably embrace something like Android or desktop Linux.
Posibyte 14y ago
I think this story is a little in the extreme and not very forthcoming. However, SJVN regularly reports on stories as such. I remember when he reported back before Vista was released and said that (paraphrasing) "Vista will be the push Linux needs to end up on top!" Of course it had only a very small percentage gain for the Linux community as a whole. I think we'll see businesses simply hold their versioning until either the bulk of ISVs change their focus to Mac/Linux, Microsoft caters (more?) closely to businesses, the last critical piece of software refuses to run on 7/Vista/XP, or the company bites the bullet and upgrades. Now, honestly my experiences are 100% anecdotal and I'm can't see into every business's structure. However, I've worked in quite a few IT offices and when Microsoft upgraded to both Vista and 7, there was a lot of working around to either delay the update to the new system or have a trained workforce that was more comfortable to work with it, but we never once thought we should switch our entire system to Linux or OS X. Now, you might be wondering "We're talking about vendors, not the end users". True, but vendors follow demand, whether we like it or not. If Acer doesn't sell Windows computers, they'll be missing out on a lot of sells to larger entities. But the main point I want to make is, why does it even matter? What is Microsoft competing on? The locked-down ARM Tablet. That's it. We aren't talking about stand-up or laptop computers. These will likely not be used in the corporate or government markets on the high-end. The Windows 8 ARM Tablet is really nothing more than a consumer device and is designed to compete with the iPad and Android Tablets (to a lesser degree). It has business-y functions, but I don't see the corporate sector adopting it any time soon. Is Windows 8's "Metro" interface going to detract consumers? Probably not, or at least as much as SJVN is arguing. If businesses don't like it, they'll probably just stick with 7 or whatever is doing just fine right now. Linux will probably see more usage thanks to Google and some other developing entities, but not to the degree that is inferred by this article or for the reason described.
moskie 14y ago
Is it possible to Microsoft does not plan to have the Surface be a longtime product of theirs? My impression with the Surface is that it was Microsoft's way of showing the world an example of how Windows 8 devices should work. I did not come away thinking that Microsoft is now fully into the PC manufacturing game. Could it be Microsoft's way of jump-starting OEMs into creating the types of devices that are needed to make Windows 8 successful? And not the first round of war between Microsoft and OEMs that this article (and others) claims it is?
madoublet 14y ago
Not this guy again. He is a hack with an agenda.
edwinyzh 14y ago
The Windows 8's Metro UI is fundamentally designed for a touch screen based tablet, bad things will happen if MS pushes desktop users to use that UI. Really don't want Win 8 to fall, my soon-in-beta new text editor (with a Firebug-like UI, called LIVEditor) is designed for Windows only...
jamesmcn 14y ago
Microsoft is screwing over its customers like this. Apple is screwing over its customers like this. Both of them are pushing the tabletification of computing. I see how that works for the vast majority of users, but it isn't really for me. Sadly, the workstation companies have mostly died out. Sure, you can probably get a PA-RISC machine from HP or a POWER box from IBM, but those are mostly servers for the legacy market.
mcpooh 14y ago
stopped reading after "Microsoft has always been a “my way or the highway” kind of company" this can be written just by person who wants to lie. MS backward compatibility is unmatched for this size of company. I still can run apps written 10+ years ago. In most cases I can find same menus and options where they were 10+ years ago. Try this trick with Mac. I recently switched to Mac to do development... so have not big but experience in both worlds
rbanffy 14y ago
Microsoft biggest problem, by far, is that they think the OS installed on PCs is what sells them. It's not. In the 90's, it would be very hard to change, but currently two trends are converging into MS's perfect storm: users are doing more and more through web interfaces to remote servers running their apps and holding their data, and FLOSS is fast becoming a very viable alternative to what most PC users use their machines for. Every time I debate this with my friends who work for Microsoft, they seem to think the only way to install a printer on Linux is still to open a terminal and edit a configuration file with vi, if not compile the driver yourself.
- pyre 14y ago
  Maybe you should point them to Sun Tzu. Seems like your friends at Microsoft are basing their opinions off of some anecdotes gleaned from the web, rather than grabbing a box and attempting to install Linux on it to size up the competition.
  - bcbrown 14y ago
    I did that, installing Ubuntu last fall. It was miles better than the last Linux distro I installed, Red Hat 6 back in the 90s, but it was still a painful process.
    - rbanffy 14y ago
      I find it rather odd someone considers installing Ubuntu a painful process. From time to time I have to install Windows machines for testing and, compared to Ubuntu, it's a slow and involved process. With Ubuntu it's something like boot, answer questions, install (with updates) and boot-to-useful-machine. With Windows it's often install (which takes a long time, with several boots), find, download and install drivers, install updates, reboot, install newer updates, reboot again and so on... The only situation where a Windows box is less pain than an Ubuntu one is when corporate IT installs it for you and drops it onto your desk.
      - wonderzombie 14y ago
sageikosa 14y ago
Windows 8 will take off because it is Windows 7 +1. I for one am glad they are back to numbering things sequentially instead of trying to come up with poetic terms or meaningless initials. At the very least it will probably be big in Japan, China and Korea since "8" is a lucky number.

38 points by tanglesome 14y ago

I am absolutely sure that a change on the desktop market is coming and that open source operating systems will gain a nice percentage of the market share, if not the majority thereof. But this change will be a lot slower than we would like it to be. It'll come, but it'll take some time. We saw similar changes in the browser and the phone markets recently, it went faster there because it's an easier change for non-technical users. It's rather great that the floodgate is now open and that open source is slowly overtaking their proprietary software and operating system counterparts. It's also a fact though that Microsoft and surely others are trying to close them again, one approach is the "secure boot" nonsense for example. One can only hope (and of course, work on open source whenever possible) that they won't succeed in that.

drzaiusapelord 14y ago
This is EXACTLY the same argument when Vista came out, which was a subpar release, and yet another "Year of The Linux Desktop" was not upon us then nor is it now. This was also the same argument when XP came out. I remember the slashdot kiddies saying "Its Win2000 with fisher price colors! Mandrake will be the new desktop." Err, okay. I love FOSS, but the idea that Joe Sixpack is switching to Ubuntu because the start button is missing is a little overblown. I'm begining to feel sorry for MS's Windows product. Its a damned if you/damned if you don't scenario. If they don't innovate and do something different then they'll be criticized for being stale. When they do innovate they're criticized for confusing users and not sticking with the same tired WIMP formula. I get it, these critics are biased, but lets at least wait until the RTM gets in the hands of users before we call it a disaster. It might very well work out for MS. Win8 went from a joke on these forums to a brave OS after the MS surface announcement. Public opinion is quite fickle isn't it?

astrodust 14y ago

Microsoft's strength is that Windows 7 runs a corporation's crusty old legacy Windows applications better than any other operating system. If this somehow fails to be the case, corporations will switch to whatever platform provides this support better. It's not unthinkable that Linux could be made to run Windows XP vintage applications better than Windows 8 can.

dpark 14y ago
Windows 8 is still Windows. You can run all your "crusty old legacy Windows applications" just as you could on Windows 7. Disclaimer: Microsoft employee (not really relevant, but just in case ...)
- sageikosa 14y ago
  Disclosure, not disclaimer :-)
  - dpark 14y ago
    That does sound more appropriate. :) Thanks.
- takluyver 14y ago
  Unless you get the ARM version, which I believe is called WinRT. I think that could be the biggest problem for Microsoft. People are used to being able to install any old Windows application, but if you get the wrong kind of Windows 8, all those x86 applications won't run.
  - dpark 14y ago
    Right, and that's a legitimate concern. It's by no means going to drive people to Linux, though. WINE isn't going to run Windows apps better than Windows 8, and Linux on ARM isn't going to run x86 apps at all (except maybe in an emulation, which would be miserable).
rbanffy 14y ago

sourc3 14y ago

I agree with this. I am not sure if I see a compelling reason why Win8 on desktop should take off for businesses. It will be a transitionary version just like how Vista was. Windows 8 tablets? Same story. Why would I as a consumer want to spend $600 to get a tablet with so many unknowns? What does it provide that the iPad currently does not provide? I keep wanting to find a good set of reasons but I can't. You just know what your $500-600 is getting you when you go to iPad and Android. Unless MS lowers the price point to $150-200 it will be a tough sell in my opinion. The software side of things are very different though. Being a .NET developer for years (after coming from UNIX) I find myself using Java and open source languages more and more often. If you are an ISV/entrepreneur I am just not sure if it is a good idea to bet the future of your organization on Microsoft's mercy. They keep changing languages/platforms like they change clothes lately. Nonetheless, the next three-four years will be fun to watch.

Metrop0218 14y ago
"get a tablet with so many unknowns?" There will be 0 unknowns a month after they get released. There are unknowns now because it is an unreleased product. Using that as a point against the success of the system is moronic.
- ralfn 14y ago
  People are rightfully worried about the chicken-egg problem. Will 3rd parties support it? Well, does it have users? Will it have users? Well, is there third party support? Either the customers or the 3rd party developpers have to make the first gamble.
- Shamanmuni 14y ago
  Are you sure? iOS has 5 years in the market and plenty of apps, Android 4 years and also plenty of apps. Both have matured and you probably know a geek or two who use them and can answer your questions. Windows 8 will be a newcomer with less apps at your disposal and probably no geek nearby to ask questions. Lots of unkowns for me. Face it, they are really late in the game this time.

andthejets 14y ago

Meh, I doubt it. Vendors can complain all they want but the average consumer is sure as hell not going to switch to linux. And if they wanted to switch to OSX then they probably have already bought a Mac. Everyone else wants Windows because they are used to it and it runs all their programs.

TazeTSchnitzel 14y ago
You sure? It might motivate vendors to, for instance, sell Ubuntu PCs. It's quite user-friendly. Who knows. I don't think it's likely, though.
- andthejets 14y ago
  I mean its easy to make a nice interface for people who just browse and such. But it becomes a problem when people go: "Oh so does it have Word and all my other office products?" Open office and etc are all pretty poor replacements.
  - TazeTSchnitzel 14y ago
    You sure? I suspect for most people, they don't use enough features of Word for LibreOffice Writer to feel much different.
    - andthejets 14y ago
      Its not just about the feature set, its about using whats familiar for a lot of the "average" consumer.
      - TazeTSchnitzel 14y ago
        Familiarity is an issue, but the newer generation are quicker to pick up new technology.
disgruntledphd2 14y ago

IanDrake 14y ago

Pure link bait. Switch to Mac because MS is making their own (non-exclusive) hardware? Really? Has this guy forgotten the OS/hardware deal that you get with Apple? Windows 8 is dead because enterprises aren't planning to upgrade? Most just got to Windows 7, they don't like change, so they'll stay there for another 5-10 years. I doubt the writer believes anything he's written, but this is the nature of tech "journalism".

comm_it 14y ago
I agree with this. I've just got Windows 7 on my corporate desktop. Although there is wide adoption of Win 7 here, Win XP was running previously, and still is on a large number of machines, if this truly sucks the enterprise sector will just wait it out like they did with Vista.
__chrismc 14y ago
> Most just got to Windows 7, they don't like change, so they'll stay there for another 5-10 years This. The client I work for is still _testing_ Windows 7. Rollout won't happen for a while yet. Windows 8? Might get looked in 2016, I guess.
drzaiusapelord 14y ago
Sysadmin here. Yeah, I'm not hyped about 8 as I just got 7 going on here for everyone. 8 can wait, or more than likely 9 can wait a while too.
rickmb 14y ago
Is it somewhat realistic to assume enterprise IT is increasingly becoming irrelevant when it comes to the desktop? I mean, how insane is it when people have to work with technology on their job they've ditched 5-10 years ago at home for being too outdated to be even be give away? There comes a point where enterprise IT loses all credibility. At this pace, during my lifetime homeless people in third world countries will have phones that are more modern and powerful computers than office workers will have at their desk. The practices enterprise IT currently still holds on to don't seem sustainable to me.

Aloha 14y ago

I really believe Mac OS is the future of the consumer market. It's easy to use, complete, and has friendly people at any apple retailer to help you onboard yourself on to the system.

rbanffy 14y ago
Try to convince every other PC manufacturer to leave the consumer market. They may even die in the end, but they'll certainly try other things before it comes to that.
- Aloha 14y ago
  Either Apple, or the Apple Model. Hardware >> Software >> Support. All from one manufacturer.
  - rbanffy 14y ago
    Wouldn't achieve the network effects. They'd probably embrace something like Android or desktop Linux.

Posibyte 14y ago

I think this story is a little in the extreme and not very forthcoming. However, SJVN regularly reports on stories as such. I remember when he reported back before Vista was released and said that (paraphrasing) "Vista will be the push Linux needs to end up on top!" Of course it had only a very small percentage gain for the Linux community as a whole. I think we'll see businesses simply hold their versioning until either the bulk of ISVs change their focus to Mac/Linux, Microsoft caters (more?) closely to businesses, the last critical piece of software refuses to run on 7/Vista/XP, or the company bites the bullet and upgrades. Now, honestly my experiences are 100% anecdotal and I'm can't see into every business's structure. However, I've worked in quite a few IT offices and when Microsoft upgraded to both Vista and 7, there was a lot of working around to either delay the update to the new system or have a trained workforce that was more comfortable to work with it, but we never once thought we should switch our entire system to Linux or OS X. Now, you might be wondering "We're talking about vendors, not the end users". True, but vendors follow demand, whether we like it or not. If Acer doesn't sell Windows computers, they'll be missing out on a lot of sells to larger entities. But the main point I want to make is, why does it even matter? What is Microsoft competing on? The locked-down ARM Tablet. That's it. We aren't talking about stand-up or laptop computers. These will likely not be used in the corporate or government markets on the high-end. The Windows 8 ARM Tablet is really nothing more than a consumer device and is designed to compete with the iPad and Android Tablets (to a lesser degree). It has business-y functions, but I don't see the corporate sector adopting it any time soon. Is Windows 8's "Metro" interface going to detract consumers? Probably not, or at least as much as SJVN is arguing. If businesses don't like it, they'll probably just stick with 7 or whatever is doing just fine right now. Linux will probably see more usage thanks to Google and some other developing entities, but not to the degree that is inferred by this article or for the reason described.

moskie 14y ago

Is it possible to Microsoft does not plan to have the Surface be a longtime product of theirs? My impression with the Surface is that it was Microsoft's way of showing the world an example of how Windows 8 devices should work. I did not come away thinking that Microsoft is now fully into the PC manufacturing game. Could it be Microsoft's way of jump-starting OEMs into creating the types of devices that are needed to make Windows 8 successful? And not the first round of war between Microsoft and OEMs that this article (and others) claims it is?

madoublet 14y ago

Not this guy again. He is a hack with an agenda.

edwinyzh 14y ago

The Windows 8's Metro UI is fundamentally designed for a touch screen based tablet, bad things will happen if MS pushes desktop users to use that UI. Really don't want Win 8 to fall, my soon-in-beta new text editor (with a Firebug-like UI, called LIVEditor) is designed for Windows only...

jamesmcn 14y ago

Microsoft is screwing over its customers like this. Apple is screwing over its customers like this. Both of them are pushing the tabletification of computing. I see how that works for the vast majority of users, but it isn't really for me. Sadly, the workstation companies have mostly died out. Sure, you can probably get a PA-RISC machine from HP or a POWER box from IBM, but those are mostly servers for the legacy market.

mcpooh 14y ago

stopped reading after "Microsoft has always been a “my way or the highway” kind of company" this can be written just by person who wants to lie. MS backward compatibility is unmatched for this size of company. I still can run apps written 10+ years ago. In most cases I can find same menus and options where they were 10+ years ago. Try this trick with Mac. I recently switched to Mac to do development... so have not big but experience in both worlds

rbanffy 14y ago

Microsoft biggest problem, by far, is that they think the OS installed on PCs is what sells them. It's not. In the 90's, it would be very hard to change, but currently two trends are converging into MS's perfect storm: users are doing more and more through web interfaces to remote servers running their apps and holding their data, and FLOSS is fast becoming a very viable alternative to what most PC users use their machines for. Every time I debate this with my friends who work for Microsoft, they seem to think the only way to install a printer on Linux is still to open a terminal and edit a configuration file with vi, if not compile the driver yourself.

pyre 14y ago
Maybe you should point them to Sun Tzu. Seems like your friends at Microsoft are basing their opinions off of some anecdotes gleaned from the web, rather than grabbing a box and attempting to install Linux on it to size up the competition.
- bcbrown 14y ago
  I did that, installing Ubuntu last fall. It was miles better than the last Linux distro I installed, Red Hat 6 back in the 90s, but it was still a painful process.
  - rbanffy 14y ago
    I find it rather odd someone considers installing Ubuntu a painful process. From time to time I have to install Windows machines for testing and, compared to Ubuntu, it's a slow and involved process. With Ubuntu it's something like boot, answer questions, install (with updates) and boot-to-useful-machine. With Windows it's often install (which takes a long time, with several boots), find, download and install drivers, install updates, reboot, install newer updates, reboot again and so on... The only situation where a Windows box is less pain than an Ubuntu one is when corporate IT installs it for you and drops it onto your desk.
    - wonderzombie 14y ago

sageikosa 14y ago

Windows 8 will take off because it is Windows 7 +1. I for one am glad they are back to numbering things sequentially instead of trying to come up with poetic terms or meaningless initials. At the very least it will probably be big in Japan, China and Korea since "8" is a lucky number.