4 ms·

Pay walled, but if your catching reckless tickets you really need to have your license taken away. Your either a safer driver or not.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Your either a safer driver or not Source? Like, are driving violations concentrated in a minority of drivers?
- geoffpado 2y ago
  Yes. Drivers who have experienced traffic violations before are significantly more likely to experience a crash in the future: "Over half of the observational studies demonstrated that traffic offenders were more likely to commit a subsequent traffic violation or had elevated risk of crashes. […] Traffic offenders are a high-risk group for subsequent violations and crashes." - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10634619 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10634619 "After adjusting for confounders in the regression model, drivers with three or more driving offences had 2.25 (95% CI 1.98 to 2.57), 2.87 (95% CI 1.60 to 5.17) and 3.28 (95% CI 2.28 to 4.72) times higher rates of any crash, crashes that resulted in hospital admission or death and single vehicle crashes compared with drivers with no driving offences." - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9510411 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9510411
  - Dylan16807 2y ago
    5% of the population having a 3x crash rate is still only about 15% of crashes.
- Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
  Measuring violations is a poor measure, as enforcement varies wildly, and the worst offenders are probably also the most aware of when and where enforcement happens, so are good at dodging enforcement. A better statistic would be at-fault crash rate. I imagine it follows the Pareto Principle: 80% of crashes are likely caused by 20% of drivers. I tried to find statistics to back up my intuition, but apparently statistics about fault are not tracked well. Though supposedly, on average, American drivers experience one crash per 18 years, and 77% of drivers have been involved in a crash. But those stats say nothing about fault. I got into a crash only two months after getting my license, but it was because I got hit by someone running a red light, so I was not at fault. It's been 24 years and around 300,000 miles since then, and I have yet to have another crash, though I've gotten two speeding tickets over that time.
to11mtm 2y ago
... Previously the in VA Reckless was automatic at 80MPH but now it's 85MPH. At 80MPH I would play devils advocate, I've had to go to 80MPH even in Michigan to avoid hazardous drivers[0]. But in general I'd hope that if someone got pulled over and ticketed for such it was flagrant. At 85 It's hard to say what I'd need to avoid in an accident unless I was already doing 80. [0] - Most recently, a 'just shy of overdimension criteria' truck that was doing 75 where trucks in general should only do 65, while on a cell phone...
- StableAlkyne 2y ago
  To be fair, it's the norm in most of the country to hit 15 over. If you're going with the flow of traffic at a safe following distance on a 70, I can easily see how someone would hit that. Especially right after the border. Edit: the interstate, not city or back roads
  - JoeAltmaier 2y ago
    Don't know where you're from. Around here it's 5mph over.
    - Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
      Here in Portland, the standard is 5 mph UNDER the limit in the left lane. -_- If I had a dollar for every time I've passed people on their right while going the speed limit, I could make a living off of it.
    - mystified5016 2y ago
      In Cincinnati it's anywhere from 10-25 over. The city has been sprinkling speedbumps everywhere, and traffic is faster and more dangerous everywhere there's a speedbump.
  - to11mtm 2y ago
    Makes sense I guess... Maybe I'm naive; in my state the 'norm' was 5MPH or 10% (whichever is greater) over until a combination of: - Covid and/or bad driving habits developed during Covid - People moving to my state for COL/Work reasons At the same time, over the last year or two we have devolved into 18 wheelers doing 75 in a truck-65 zone [0] and apparently for many, 80 is the new 75. On the other hand, I can think of three locations even in-state where 15MPH (or more!) is the gold standard or otherwise acceptable; - M39, a 13-ish mile trunkline where ~10 miles or so has +15MPH as norm on the left lanes as long as traffic permits. It's - M10, a 23-ish mile trunkline that has two distinct styles of driving along each half, the part in Detroit really helps the overall 'thunderdome' claims. Much of it is 2 lanes only, and in certain sections there's no room to safely pull someone over. - The portion of Outer Drive that runs through Rouge park has a posted limit of 25. I've never met a human being who didn't drive 40 through it as SOP. At the same time, I think my state tends to underpatrol/underenforce, I've seen absolute trifectas of terror (CDL in overdimensioned doing 10+ over while on a cell phone) and yet there is never enforcement out to deal with it like there used to. [0] - Which more than anything pisses me off in that it is almost certainly causing wear in excess of the design life of the road...

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> Your either a safer driver or not Source? Like, are driving violations concentrated in a minority of drivers?

geoffpado 2y ago
Yes. Drivers who have experienced traffic violations before are significantly more likely to experience a crash in the future: "Over half of the observational studies demonstrated that traffic offenders were more likely to commit a subsequent traffic violation or had elevated risk of crashes. […] Traffic offenders are a high-risk group for subsequent violations and crashes." - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10634619 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10634619 "After adjusting for confounders in the regression model, drivers with three or more driving offences had 2.25 (95% CI 1.98 to 2.57), 2.87 (95% CI 1.60 to 5.17) and 3.28 (95% CI 2.28 to 4.72) times higher rates of any crash, crashes that resulted in hospital admission or death and single vehicle crashes compared with drivers with no driving offences." - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9510411 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9510411
- Dylan16807 2y ago
  5% of the population having a 3x crash rate is still only about 15% of crashes.
Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
Measuring violations is a poor measure, as enforcement varies wildly, and the worst offenders are probably also the most aware of when and where enforcement happens, so are good at dodging enforcement. A better statistic would be at-fault crash rate. I imagine it follows the Pareto Principle: 80% of crashes are likely caused by 20% of drivers. I tried to find statistics to back up my intuition, but apparently statistics about fault are not tracked well. Though supposedly, on average, American drivers experience one crash per 18 years, and 77% of drivers have been involved in a crash. But those stats say nothing about fault. I got into a crash only two months after getting my license, but it was because I got hit by someone running a red light, so I was not at fault. It's been 24 years and around 300,000 miles since then, and I have yet to have another crash, though I've gotten two speeding tickets over that time.

to11mtm 2y ago

... Previously the in VA Reckless was automatic at 80MPH but now it's 85MPH. At 80MPH I would play devils advocate, I've had to go to 80MPH even in Michigan to avoid hazardous drivers[0]. But in general I'd hope that if someone got pulled over and ticketed for such it was flagrant. At 85 It's hard to say what I'd need to avoid in an accident unless I was already doing 80. [0] - Most recently, a 'just shy of overdimension criteria' truck that was doing 75 where trucks in general should only do 65, while on a cell phone...

StableAlkyne 2y ago
To be fair, it's the norm in most of the country to hit 15 over. If you're going with the flow of traffic at a safe following distance on a 70, I can easily see how someone would hit that. Especially right after the border. Edit: the interstate, not city or back roads
- JoeAltmaier 2y ago
  Don't know where you're from. Around here it's 5mph over.
  - Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
    Here in Portland, the standard is 5 mph UNDER the limit in the left lane. -_- If I had a dollar for every time I've passed people on their right while going the speed limit, I could make a living off of it.
  - mystified5016 2y ago
    In Cincinnati it's anywhere from 10-25 over. The city has been sprinkling speedbumps everywhere, and traffic is faster and more dangerous everywhere there's a speedbump.
- to11mtm 2y ago
  Makes sense I guess... Maybe I'm naive; in my state the 'norm' was 5MPH or 10% (whichever is greater) over until a combination of: - Covid and/or bad driving habits developed during Covid - People moving to my state for COL/Work reasons At the same time, over the last year or two we have devolved into 18 wheelers doing 75 in a truck-65 zone [0] and apparently for many, 80 is the new 75. On the other hand, I can think of three locations even in-state where 15MPH (or more!) is the gold standard or otherwise acceptable; - M39, a 13-ish mile trunkline where ~10 miles or so has +15MPH as norm on the left lanes as long as traffic permits. It's - M10, a 23-ish mile trunkline that has two distinct styles of driving along each half, the part in Detroit really helps the overall 'thunderdome' claims. Much of it is 2 lanes only, and in certain sections there's no room to safely pull someone over. - The portion of Outer Drive that runs through Rouge park has a posted limit of 25. I've never met a human being who didn't drive 40 through it as SOP. At the same time, I think my state tends to underpatrol/underenforce, I've seen absolute trifectas of terror (CDL in overdimensioned doing 10+ over while on a cell phone) and yet there is never enforcement out to deal with it like there used to. [0] - Which more than anything pisses me off in that it is almost certainly causing wear in excess of the design life of the road...