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> OpenAI is quietly seeding expectations for a "PhD-level" AI agent that could operate autonomously at the level of a "high-income knowledge worker" in the near

> OpenAI is quietly seeding expectations for a "PhD-level" AI agent that could operate autonomously at the level of a "high-income knowledge worker" in the near future. Elon Musk says that "we'll have AI smarter than any one human probably" by the end of 2025. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei thinks it might take a bit longer but similarly says it's plausible that AI will be "better than humans at almost everything" by the end of 2027. I am baffled that anyone is still buying this complete nonsense. Like, come on.

readthenotes1 2y ago
Will AI be better at hyping AI than certain humans? Seems improbable...
d3nj4l 2y ago
Yeah, the people with a vested interest in AI say AI is good, news at 9.
- rsynnott 2y ago
  I mean I think this is actually kind of abnormal; you do not get this level of absolute nonsense promises in most industries, including most parts of the tech industry.
zurfer 2y ago
It's an interesting world where both things can be true: 1 AI surpassing humans even in PhD level tasks in a couple of years and 2 current AI not being able to successfully play a childrens game. One way to square that is that AIs have a big memory advantage that allows them to store and access information much faster than humans. However they still lack visual understanding and some forms of reasoning and live learning. Pokemon doesn't require PhD level knowledge and rather just all the other qualities that make up intelligence. Now if the big labs make progress on visual reasoning etc. the moment AI can solve Pokemon it might be able to solve everything else as well.
- nprateem 2y ago
  Yeah right. It can't draw on enough of its training data to be useful. That's why it gets stuck going down one particular alley without considering alternatives. See the whole using glue to keep pepperoni on your pizza. Even looping a la Claude extended doesn't help. It still keeps going in circles.
  - alabastervlog 2y ago
    There's so incredibly much knowledge in non-digitized documents and trapped in human brains, yet. Plus in various proprietary databases. It's 2025 and that stuff hasn't already made it onto the "repository of all human knowledge" (LO fucking L) World Wide Web still, so... I wouldn't hold my breath.
- PleasureBot 2y ago
  AI has a large memory advantage in terms of what it was trained on. It also has a massive memory disadvantage in terms of its ability to update its understanding of the world. As the article points out, the context is still orders of magnitude too small for even playing a children's game, so the model forgets what it has already tried and gets stuck.
- rsynnott 2y ago
  > AI surpassing humans even in PhD level tasks in a couple of years What even _is_ a phd-level task, though? As far as I can see they haven't meaningfully defined this; it's just intended to sound impressive if you don't think about it too much.
sambull 2y ago
If elons is spouting it; it feels like hopium to extract money from people and never deliver.
segh 2y ago
Do you disagree that AI will ever reach the level of a "high-income knowledge worker", or do you disagree that it will happen in a year or two?
- nkassis 2y ago
  Timelines are very uncertain, also definition what would satisfy this statement of operating as a high income knowledge worker is very unclear. Is it for one task? Many tasks? Any task? It's highly likely that these CEO will continue to hype up a singular examples and misrepresented claims that lead to setting outsized expectations. Already seeing expectations that all tasks are now possible and causing chaos in the corporate world of folks trying to be on the bandwagon. Also wonder if it hides the true value that the symbiotic work of human with phd level AI assistant is going to out perform any autonomous agent for the foreseeable future.
- rsynnott 2y ago
  I'd certainly question whether LLMs will. AI writ large, on an infinite timescale, who knows. But for LLMs I would be sceptical. The only knowledge worker jobs they seem seriously likely to take over are writers of high volume, low-quality bullshit (for instance, real estate ads, which have always had a bit of a problem with both stylistic suck and, well, reality), but those generally aren't particularly high-paid.
- op00to 2y ago
  The level of what?
sebastiansm 2y ago
We'll have fully autonomous vahicles driving all over the world by the end of 2017... maybe 2019 at worst.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- cratermoon 2y ago
  User rvnx brought this to my attention just recently: https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/ https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/
amelius 2y ago
Yes, if a PhD-level AI agent existed we'd have a self-improving AI, and most likely we'd be seeing the singularity.
codingdave 2y ago
I have yet to see a single thing that AI is better than humans at. Faster, yes. Better than average, yes. Highly useful in areas that are not your expertise, yes. AI does have its valuable use cases. But better than all humans? Not one thing. And I'm not sure they can be - no matter how much context we add, they are still churning up and regurgitating human-created data. They cannot innovate. The only way I could rationalize such a claim would be to define "better" as "good enough and a lot faster".
- cratermoon 2y ago
  Don't forget "doesn't have to be paid, never complains about working crunch time or overtime, won't unionize, doesn't insist on being treated humanely"
- devit 2y ago
  I think it may be better than humans at producing plausible sounding bullshit to advance a given arbitrary point. Management consultants (junior ones) are probably doomed. Example: Paper Clothing Will Revolutionize Fashion — And the World The fashion industry is on the brink of a seismic shift — and it's not coming from high-tech synthetics or luxury textiles. It’s coming from something far simpler, far more radical: paper. That’s right. Paper clothing is not only viable — it is superior. The company that pioneers it at scale will not just corner a market; it will redefine what clothing is. The future of fashion is paper, and nothing else comes close. 1. Paper Is the Ultimate Sustainable Material Let’s start with the obvious: traditional clothing materials are destroying the planet. Cotton consumes enormous amounts of water and pesticides. Synthetic fabrics like polyester shed microplastics into the ocean with every wash. In contrast, paper is clean, biodegradable, and recyclable. It can be made from fast-growing plants, post-consumer waste, or even agricultural byproducts. Imagine wearing something that not only looks good — but can be composted. Paper doesn’t just reduce the fashion industry’s carbon footprint. It erases it. 2. Built-In Innovation: Reinventing Clothing Itself Paper clothing isn’t just a new material — it’s a new design paradigm. Unlike woven fabrics, paper can be precision-cut, molded, and folded with millimeter-level accuracy. Think origami meets high fashion. Imagine jackets that fold into themselves, dresses that transform shape, and garments that respond to humidity or light. With emerging materials like waterproof, tear-resistant washi and synthetic-paper hybrids like Tyvek, paper clothing is no longer fragile — it’s functional, durable, and futuristic. 3. Hyper-Efficient Manufacturing Will Obliterate Costs Current fashion supply chains are bloated, slow, and exploitative. Paper clothing changes the game. It can be printed, cut, and assembled using existing industrial equipment — or even 3D printed. Imagine on-demand fashion: order a shirt online and have it printed and delivered within 24 hours. No sweatshops. No stockpiles. No waste. Just fast, flexible, sustainable production. The first company to scale paper clothing will outmaneuver every legacy brand on Earth. 4. Fully Customizable: The End of Mass Sizes Paper clothing doesn’t need to come in fixed sizes. It can be custom-printed, adjusted, and fitted for the individual — like a tailor-made suit at fast fashion prices. Want your shirt to have your favorite quote? A photo? A pattern that shifts in sunlight? Done. Clothes will no longer be “bought” — they’ll be generated. 5. Disposable, But Not Wasteful Let’s be honest: most clothes today are disposable already — just not designed to be. We wear them a few times, then toss them. Paper clothing embraces this reality but does it right. Each piece is fully recyclable or compostable. No landfills. No pollution. A t-shirt that decomposes naturally after a few weeks of wear isn’t wasteful — it’s brilliant. It’s the first truly guilt-free fashion. 6. Style Without Compromise Still think paper can’t be stylish? Think again. Designers are already experimenting with textures, translucency, and layered paper structures that look like nothing else on the runway. Paper fashion isn’t just sustainable — it’s stunning. It’s what’s next. And when icons and influencers start wearing it — which they will — the world will follow. The Verdict: Paper Clothing Is Inevitable This isn’t a novelty. This isn’t a gimmick. Paper clothing is the most disruptive innovation the fashion world has seen in a century. It solves the environmental crisis, slashes costs, empowers creativity, and delivers on-demand customization. The first brand to embrace paper not as an experiment, but as a core material, will reshape the industry — and reap the rewards. Paper is not the alternative. It’s the upgrade. The age of fabric is over. The era of paper clothing has begun.
bonoboTP 2y ago
This comment is very low on actual content. HN is at its best when people argue and provide insight. One could just go to reddit to do the "DAE think that AI yay/nay amirite?" thing.

readthenotes1 2y ago

Will AI be better at hyping AI than certain humans? Seems improbable...

d3nj4l 2y ago

Yeah, the people with a vested interest in AI say AI is good, news at 9.

rsynnott 2y ago
I mean I think this is actually kind of abnormal; you do not get this level of absolute nonsense promises in most industries, including most parts of the tech industry.

zurfer 2y ago

It's an interesting world where both things can be true: 1 AI surpassing humans even in PhD level tasks in a couple of years and 2 current AI not being able to successfully play a childrens game. One way to square that is that AIs have a big memory advantage that allows them to store and access information much faster than humans. However they still lack visual understanding and some forms of reasoning and live learning. Pokemon doesn't require PhD level knowledge and rather just all the other qualities that make up intelligence. Now if the big labs make progress on visual reasoning etc. the moment AI can solve Pokemon it might be able to solve everything else as well.

nprateem 2y ago
Yeah right. It can't draw on enough of its training data to be useful. That's why it gets stuck going down one particular alley without considering alternatives. See the whole using glue to keep pepperoni on your pizza. Even looping a la Claude extended doesn't help. It still keeps going in circles.
- alabastervlog 2y ago
  There's so incredibly much knowledge in non-digitized documents and trapped in human brains, yet. Plus in various proprietary databases. It's 2025 and that stuff hasn't already made it onto the "repository of all human knowledge" (LO fucking L) World Wide Web still, so... I wouldn't hold my breath.
PleasureBot 2y ago
AI has a large memory advantage in terms of what it was trained on. It also has a massive memory disadvantage in terms of its ability to update its understanding of the world. As the article points out, the context is still orders of magnitude too small for even playing a children's game, so the model forgets what it has already tried and gets stuck.
rsynnott 2y ago
> AI surpassing humans even in PhD level tasks in a couple of years What even _is_ a phd-level task, though? As far as I can see they haven't meaningfully defined this; it's just intended to sound impressive if you don't think about it too much.

sambull 2y ago

If elons is spouting it; it feels like hopium to extract money from people and never deliver.

segh 2y ago

Do you disagree that AI will ever reach the level of a "high-income knowledge worker", or do you disagree that it will happen in a year or two?

nkassis 2y ago
Timelines are very uncertain, also definition what would satisfy this statement of operating as a high income knowledge worker is very unclear. Is it for one task? Many tasks? Any task? It's highly likely that these CEO will continue to hype up a singular examples and misrepresented claims that lead to setting outsized expectations. Already seeing expectations that all tasks are now possible and causing chaos in the corporate world of folks trying to be on the bandwagon. Also wonder if it hides the true value that the symbiotic work of human with phd level AI assistant is going to out perform any autonomous agent for the foreseeable future.
rsynnott 2y ago
I'd certainly question whether LLMs will. AI writ large, on an infinite timescale, who knows. But for LLMs I would be sceptical. The only knowledge worker jobs they seem seriously likely to take over are writers of high volume, low-quality bullshit (for instance, real estate ads, which have always had a bit of a problem with both stylistic suck and, well, reality), but those generally aren't particularly high-paid.
op00to 2y ago
The level of what?

sebastiansm 2y ago

We'll have fully autonomous vahicles driving all over the world by the end of 2017... maybe 2019 at worst.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
cratermoon 2y ago
User rvnx brought this to my attention just recently: https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/ https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/

amelius 2y ago

Yes, if a PhD-level AI agent existed we'd have a self-improving AI, and most likely we'd be seeing the singularity.

codingdave 2y ago

I have yet to see a single thing that AI is better than humans at. Faster, yes. Better than average, yes. Highly useful in areas that are not your expertise, yes. AI does have its valuable use cases. But better than all humans? Not one thing. And I'm not sure they can be - no matter how much context we add, they are still churning up and regurgitating human-created data. They cannot innovate. The only way I could rationalize such a claim would be to define "better" as "good enough and a lot faster".

cratermoon 2y ago
Don't forget "doesn't have to be paid, never complains about working crunch time or overtime, won't unionize, doesn't insist on being treated humanely"
devit 2y ago
I think it may be better than humans at producing plausible sounding bullshit to advance a given arbitrary point. Management consultants (junior ones) are probably doomed. Example: Paper Clothing Will Revolutionize Fashion — And the World The fashion industry is on the brink of a seismic shift — and it's not coming from high-tech synthetics or luxury textiles. It’s coming from something far simpler, far more radical: paper. That’s right. Paper clothing is not only viable — it is superior. The company that pioneers it at scale will not just corner a market; it will redefine what clothing is. The future of fashion is paper, and nothing else comes close. 1. Paper Is the Ultimate Sustainable Material Let’s start with the obvious: traditional clothing materials are destroying the planet. Cotton consumes enormous amounts of water and pesticides. Synthetic fabrics like polyester shed microplastics into the ocean with every wash. In contrast, paper is clean, biodegradable, and recyclable. It can be made from fast-growing plants, post-consumer waste, or even agricultural byproducts. Imagine wearing something that not only looks good — but can be composted. Paper doesn’t just reduce the fashion industry’s carbon footprint. It erases it. 2. Built-In Innovation: Reinventing Clothing Itself Paper clothing isn’t just a new material — it’s a new design paradigm. Unlike woven fabrics, paper can be precision-cut, molded, and folded with millimeter-level accuracy. Think origami meets high fashion. Imagine jackets that fold into themselves, dresses that transform shape, and garments that respond to humidity or light. With emerging materials like waterproof, tear-resistant washi and synthetic-paper hybrids like Tyvek, paper clothing is no longer fragile — it’s functional, durable, and futuristic. 3. Hyper-Efficient Manufacturing Will Obliterate Costs Current fashion supply chains are bloated, slow, and exploitative. Paper clothing changes the game. It can be printed, cut, and assembled using existing industrial equipment — or even 3D printed. Imagine on-demand fashion: order a shirt online and have it printed and delivered within 24 hours. No sweatshops. No stockpiles. No waste. Just fast, flexible, sustainable production. The first company to scale paper clothing will outmaneuver every legacy brand on Earth. 4. Fully Customizable: The End of Mass Sizes Paper clothing doesn’t need to come in fixed sizes. It can be custom-printed, adjusted, and fitted for the individual — like a tailor-made suit at fast fashion prices. Want your shirt to have your favorite quote? A photo? A pattern that shifts in sunlight? Done. Clothes will no longer be “bought” — they’ll be generated. 5. Disposable, But Not Wasteful Let’s be honest: most clothes today are disposable already — just not designed to be. We wear them a few times, then toss them. Paper clothing embraces this reality but does it right. Each piece is fully recyclable or compostable. No landfills. No pollution. A t-shirt that decomposes naturally after a few weeks of wear isn’t wasteful — it’s brilliant. It’s the first truly guilt-free fashion. 6. Style Without Compromise Still think paper can’t be stylish? Think again. Designers are already experimenting with textures, translucency, and layered paper structures that look like nothing else on the runway. Paper fashion isn’t just sustainable — it’s stunning. It’s what’s next. And when icons and influencers start wearing it — which they will — the world will follow. The Verdict: Paper Clothing Is Inevitable This isn’t a novelty. This isn’t a gimmick. Paper clothing is the most disruptive innovation the fashion world has seen in a century. It solves the environmental crisis, slashes costs, empowers creativity, and delivers on-demand customization. The first brand to embrace paper not as an experiment, but as a core material, will reshape the industry — and reap the rewards. Paper is not the alternative. It’s the upgrade. The age of fabric is over. The era of paper clothing has begun.

bonoboTP 2y ago

This comment is very low on actual content. HN is at its best when people argue and provide insight. One could just go to reddit to do the "DAE think that AI yay/nay amirite?" thing.