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It is practically impossible to find a freelance project these days
Classical Economics says that in the long run, it's impossible to defy full-employment or saturate any market, Lassez Faire or free trade is quite the norm. Needless to say, the classical framework is based on some rational assumptions like no entry barriers to competition, free flow of information, rational actors who act in their own interest, etc. And yet, given these basic assumptions, the market indeed seemed to work that way for decades and centuries. And most global markets too, not just the freelance market.
The phenomenon of a "long term recession" or "long term saturation" is an unprecedented one and happening for the first time in history. From the news I read and watch, this seems to be happening in almost all sectors but freelancing is what affecting me directly. While short-term corrections of excesses and anomalies have indeed affected economic activity in the past (like world wars) but these aren't such exceptional times. The broader narrative is one of increasing prosperity, GDP output and stock market profitability all over, yet the middle class struggles more and more to find every morsel to feed their hunger.
Coming back to Upwork, a massive entry-barrier in the form of having to purchase connects is itself a problematic symptom. This indicates that supply/demand ratio is heavily tilted in favor of clients; again, this should self-correct itself in a rational market given the classical assumptions but it has carried on for several years now.
Another reason for an unhealthy supply/demand ratio is "brandification" of things which is a symptom of excessive consumerism. This isn't about just freelancing but the increasing cynicism and lack of trust of humans towards one another. Humans have lost empathy towards fellow human, they'd rather trust a Dominos or McDonalds than the little guy cooking French Fries or Samosas in the basement. They'd rather trust an Infosys or Tech Mahindra than the little freelancer who is struggling to make a living.
And from their perspective, they could be right. Apple can give them 24x7 support which I can't, the most I can do is respond to emails or messages within a specified time. There is also the human limitation of how much Coding, Testing, Deployment and Support a single individual freelancer could provide. Does it mean the age of individual freelancers is finally coming to an end, and only big businesses and agencies will eventually thrive?
The only way I can see real revival of freelancing as career option happening is if society at large wakes up from its usual cynical blue-pilled bubble, and starts having some faith in fellow homo sapiens like them, not just abstract entities like brands, gpts and platforms.
Have a nice day ahead, and may the Logos bless everyone!
- anovikov 2y agoYou are probably young and don't remember previous downturns. It is true that it's not possible to find any freelance project these days. And not just freelance, companies who sell outsourcing services to companies, have budgets for in-person visits, exhibitions and conferences, and have professional leadgen and sales teams , also can't sell anything at all - i'm in contact with several of them. It has nothing to do with Upwork or connects. For the time being, custom development market is dead. It's probably not worthwhile to keep kicking a dead horse. I for example, gave myself a sabbatical. But in late 2008-late 2009 there was exactly the same thing going on. It's natural and repeats once in a business cycle. Same factor that usually plays in favour of contractors: ability to satisfy short term demand without committments means commanding much better pay than full-time staff - plays against us in downturns; when there is slightly less demand for coding, contract market instantly saturates. Get back to it in a year or two, things will fix. It happened many times in history before, now is not at all an exceptional time, all old-timers remember these days. Good time to have a kid if you don't have one yet. That's what i did last time.
- someothherguyy 2y ago> Get back to it in a year or two, things will fix. It happened many times in history before, now is not at all an exceptional time, all old-timers remember these days. Ah, yeah, just like it did for electronics repair shops /s. Just because cycles happen doesn't mean they'll continue. Try to find targets to sell to, in a downturn, few seek.
- anovikov 2y agoThing is, individual freelancing or small-sized development agencies, they never economically worked. They always lost money to clients, never generated net positive returns. It's just a form of systematic mistake of the market caused by human psychological flaws such as Dunning-Kruger effect and the like. This is why it's so survivable. It does not depend on any actual economic mechanisms that can "put it out of business/made it obsolete". It only suffers downturns when people who become clients, lack disposable income, or are distracted by other toys (they are currently massively distracted by promise of quick AI-driven riches). It's like Forex trading. Never worked. Could never possibly work even if there were no scams (and there are scams everywhere). And yet it never dies, because it's in the nature of humans. [i have no idea about large development agencies. never talked to owners of them. maybe they also never worked, or were/are merely a form of corporate corruption.]