5 ms·
Because of the nature of the data (resettlements for dam construction) two thirds of the data is from China. But interestingly according to Figure 7 [1] the dis
by wongarsu 2y ago
Because of the nature of the data (resettlements for dam construction) two thirds of the data is from China. But interestingly according to Figure 7 [1] the discrepancy exists even in countries with normally very meticulous record keeping, like Sweden and Germany. I find this surprising.
The root cause analysis also falls short for those cases: Germany's bureaucracy might be underfunded but fundamentally requires every resident to register at their place of residence. There is also no large-scale conflict or violence in Germany, no regions are really remote or hard to reach, all rural areas are electrified (important for satellite-based night-time light counting by GRUMP and WorldPop). The only satisfying root causes left are about satellite counting methods being too coarse or badly tuned to accurately count rural area, or rural living patterns possibly not fitting the assumptions of these models. But it's weird that these errors are so similar between so many different methods, not all of which even use satellite data
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56906-7/figures/7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56906-7/figures/7
- MarkusQ 2y agoThey assume that people were only relocated from the areas later covered by water. It seems quite plausible that the actual area of relocation was somewhat larger than that subsequently covered by water, which could explain the results.
- markovs_gun 2y agoYeah wouldn't the floodplains shift as well? I looked at local flood plains when I was looking for a house and I don't want to live in a flood prone area.
- HPsquared 2y agoFor example if the road to town is underwater, your home is now unusable.
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- hinkley 2y agoChina got rid of their rules for how many children you can have a long time ago but I suspect such trauma doesn’t leave a population easily. In a world where people are considered illegal, you’ll have lots of people trying to leave no footprints and far away from seats of authority where your odds of drawing attention on accident are much better. See also the trope of the quiet stranger who moves to a rural town and keeps to himself. Does he just like the peace and quiet or is there a warrant out for his arrest in South Carolina?
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- kspacewalk2 2y agoChina replaced a one-child policy with a two-child policy in 2015, which was replaced by a three-child policy in 2021. So, far from getting rid of rules for how many children you can have a long time ago, they relaxed rules for how many children you can have a short while ago. Also, China isn't rural Alaska, it is a centralized authoritarian surveillance state and not the kind of place one can go off the grid and raise a family. Not that a non-vanishingly-small number of people is doing that anywhere, other than by happenstance in the poorest countries where "off the grid" is the default.
- lelandfe 2y agoThe three-child policy was lifted just months later after some outcry: https://fortune.com/2021/07/21/china-three-child-policy-declining-birth-rate-fines/ https://fortune.com/2021/07/21/china-three-child-policy-decl...
- RegnisGnaw 2y agoIts actually not that uncommon. China is not a monolithic entity. Rules are flexible and always have work around. In some cases, rural families that have a girl as a first kid will try again for a boy. They just don't register the girl for hukou.
- thadk 2y agoThe gridded population tools I've used, including Worldpop, seemed to start with the national census data. Only with that do they use the various other measures as a way to subdivide the census data administrative units. I'm not sure if any of the mentioned gridded population tools are substantially census independent. Haven't read the paper yet, but maybe that could be one reason why methods are so similar.