3 ms·
> But like most of us I think he struggles to comprehend the implications of exponential improvement. Or he successfully comprehends the implications of sigmoi
by mcphage 2y ago
> But like most of us I think he struggles to comprehend the implications of exponential improvement.
Or he successfully comprehends the implications of sigmoid improvement.
Consider self-driving cars: there was a few years of huge progress, and it looked like the end of human driving was right around the corner. And then… the exponential part of the curve stopped, and it reverted to a much slower rate of improvement. We’ll get there eventually, but… it’s not around the corner.
- jimbokun 2y agoWhere are we now on the LLM sigmoid? How can you tell?
- mcphage 2y agoThat’s the neat thing: you can’t. You get explosive improvement, and then suddenly you hit an invisible inflection point and they slow to a crawl.
- ben_w 2y agoIndeed, and worse: actual improvements along the curve are somewhat random, meaning you can't even tell that you passed the equivalent inflection point (returns became diminishing) until significantly after.