4 ms·

Tesla Will Die

77 points by doener 2y ago

fullshark 2y ago
Is it finally time to short it safely?
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Not yet. (not investing advice)
- short_sells_poo 2y ago
  It's never safe to short - by definition. A penny stock can easily rally 100% in it's death-throes and take out the hapless short seller. As a retail investor, I strongly advise against shorting. Can you make money? Yes. Is the game stacked and rigged against you? Also yes. The best thing to do is redeem TSLA holdings and put them in other companies (or better yet, into a broad based index).
- thworp 2y ago
  It's much better to buy Puts (limited downside). The problem with buying them now is that you're way too late. By now the premiums are quite high, even for huge declines. If you bought a few batches at different strike prices expiring 2026 in 2021 you would be sitting on some serious profit now.
- tim333 2y ago
  Wait till it runs up a bit first and use a stop loss.
BirAdam 2y ago
Never underestimate hype in keeping stuff alive, and absolutely never underestimate the willingness of government to save companies that should go under. I don’t much care for Keynes, but as I’ve gotten older, the “wild animal spirits” makes more sense as markets are seemingly never rational. Even when they are, the government now likes to “bail out” companies that the market has said ought fall. For Musk, be he one thing or another, he has been a political animal from the start. He chose sectors where government money was available, where politicians could gain credibility with the public by supporting his companies (electric cars, solar, space), and he consistently got the hype running high enough to provide radical over-valuations. When the political winds began to shift, so did he. He immediately pivoted to position himself no-longer as center-left, but somewhere right-of-center when the majority of the USA went that direction. The primary issue with this is that to the US right… electric cars and solar aren’t too interesting, and space while admirable isn’t a priority. I think that any prognostication on the death of Tesla is a bit hasty, but Musk’s usual strategy is certainly in question.
- short_sells_poo 2y ago
  I struggle to understand what is Musk's endgame here. 95% of Tesla's client base is (was) upper-middle class liberal/left leaning professionals. He spent the last 4 years relentlessly trolling and ostracizing these people, and then seemingly went full loony with nazi salutes, re-tweeting far right accounts on X and to top it all off he endorsed the far right political parties in Europe, which really pushed the nail into the coffin. The US admin who was championed by Musk wasted no time to cancel EV subsidies and investments into charging infrastructure and is currently pushing "beautiful, clean coal". This seems like the most braindead, schizophrenic, and short-sighted set of blunders I've seen in my life. A child would've been able to predict what is going to happen. So I'm really stumped. He cannot be this stupid, surely? He cannot be this ignorant of the impact of his own actions? Is he really so deep in an echo chamber that he thought the Tesla gravy train will just keep going? Tesla as a brand is basically dead in Europe - one of his biggest markets. There's no salvaging this. No comeback that he can engineer. Maybe he saves his bacon in the US by enough government money grift to keep Tesla alive, but he'd have to do a ridiculous amount of it to keep the dream of >100 PE ratio valuation going.
  - ohnoitsahuman 2y ago
    Many of us upper-class liberals have moved to the right. Shitty cities filled with crime and weirdos after your kids will do that to you.
    - ffudklif 2y ago
      [flagged]
    - Bluntiiono 2y ago
      [flagged]
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - damnesian 2y ago
      that's no solution. The standard of a workable city is Stockholm, not Tampa.
Ecco 2y ago
[flagged]
- drewbug01 2y ago
  > Why? How is that not censorship? In a somewhat convenient turn of events for pro-Musk camp on HN: Musk is now deeply embroiled in politics. Thus, any discussion of him is inherently political. And of course, politics is largely "off-topic" for HN. So in addition to the usual flagging and downvoting of Musk-critical comments and stories, they can also be flagged and downvoted for being "political." I don't foresee it changing anytime soon. Not at least until enough techies finally understand that virtually everything is "political" to some extent, and I don't expect that to happen until we hit the riots-in-the-streets stage of Musk's current political project.
  - nh23423fefe 2y ago
    > everything is "political" to some extent no. even if i agreed with that platitude, why does it even matter. its off topic. rant about nazis elsewhere.
sowhat25 2y ago
[flagged]
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
Bluntiiono 2y ago
I realized that the stock market has a lot of gambling aspects for a handful of companies. Tesla is/was hyped up and everyone said "but its not just a car company". But okay the Tesla Solar stuff is available for ages by now, the robot can't be bought yet and the first chinese companies sell them at 30k (i always assumed the first would hit the market with 100k and more) and from a robot taxi perspective, there are so many other companies doing it already... Add 1 + 1 + 1 and you do not get the valuation of what tesla is valuated at all. And then Musk. Holy shit Musk. The borring company was braindead and showed a very clear very ungenius brain fart. His way of selling but not deliverying is now omnipresent. And his election interfering in usa and eu will catch up with him as everything else will.
- trgn 2y ago
  the intuition behind boring company was that traffic could go faster in dedicated pipes. it's actually the right company for the wrong reasons. there are more important reasons traffic should go underground. car roads are sewers; noisy, polluting, stink. any city will benefit when cars are removed from the surface. for that reasons alone, from all his companies, i hope boring company would succeed the most.
  - tim333 2y ago
    Yeah the boring company doesn't seem a bad gamble to me even if it doesn't work out. They've even got a new project lined up doing a Dubai loop similar to the Las Vegas one. It's the pivot to nazi salutes etc. that seems nuts.
    - Bluntiiono 2y ago
      So boring company did 3 km of tunnel in 7 years how is this not a bad gamble? Thats clearly showing a ton of issues and that the original concerns from everyone who has any knowledge on building tunnels, mentioned. And everyone who does't mind going into a tube, were if anything goes wrong, the hole tunnel becomes a death tunnel,...
  - Bluntiiono 2y ago
mmastrac 2y ago
Couldn't have happened to a bigger dickhead founder, honestly. Elon's cult of personality has finally popped. I've never seen such a massive waste of potential and reputation as that dude went through in the last few years. Was it the drugs? Lack of self-confidence? Just fundamental incompatibility with fame?
- Trasmatta 2y ago
  I think Sam Altman had it right: "his whole life is from a position of insecurity".
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
belter 2y ago
The killer: "Mercedes CLA EV is finally here and it has nearly 500 miles range" - https://electrek.co/2025/03/13/mercedes-cla-ev-finally-here-nearly-500-miles-range/ https://electrek.co/2025/03/13/mercedes-cla-ev-finally-here-...
- bdangubic 2y ago
  there are only two types benz owners :) - people that bought it once - people that bought it never
moralestapia 2y ago
This article starts ok but then it just becomes a rant against Musk that does not make a lot of sense. >SpaceX isn’t doing so well either, with Starlink being far from breaking even and Starship being a total mess. I agree Tesla is pretty much a shitcoin but that bit about SpaceX is just not true. The author very clearly wants Musk to fail, for whatever reason, and in doing so loses all objectivity.
- planb 2y ago
  It‘s so sad that this happens all the time. People have valid arguments based on facts and then continue to tell stories based on their opinions and values.
  - bdangubic 2y ago
    this is because elon is a cult-like figure and I am not sure anyone can objectively present any arguments for anything when he’s the topic
kmlx 2y ago
this website seems to be spam: https://www.planetearthandbeyond.co https://www.planetearthandbeyond.co titles of recent articles: (Tesla) This Is Just Pathetic. Talk about clutching at straws. Tesla Can, And Will, Fall Further. Starship Was Doomed From The Beginning Starship Is In Deep Trouble This Is How Tesla Will Die Tesla Is Dying, And Polestar Wants To Kill It Tesla Is So Screwed Tesla's Downfall Is Imminent Is Elon Musk A Groomer?
- akan01n 2y ago
  yeap! looks like another A.I blog generator
CivBase 2y ago
Except none of this is new. Tesla has been overvalued for the better part of the last decade but it shows no signs of coming back to Earth any time soon. Elon's individual reputation doesn't seem to have much effect on the company's value either. It's not like people only just started hating him recently. Tesla's valuation will inevitably come crashing back down to reality, but something will have to change to trigger that collapse. My bet is the change will have nothing to do with Tesla or Elon. It will be some seemingly-unrelated change entirely outside their control.
- moolcool 2y ago
  > but it shows no signs of coming back to Earth any time soon. It's down almost 40% YTD
- diggan 2y ago
  > Elon's individual reputation doesn't seem to have much effect on the company's value either. It's not like people only just started hating him recently. Unless the company fucked up something majorly in recent times, what is the reason for the stock price to fall so fast right now? Large swaths of people who would have been perfect customer for Tesla, have committed to never buying anything Tesla, especially because of his very public nazi-salute and supporting far-right parties in Europe, and sales are already down across the world. Did people stop buying Tesla because some new software update, or could it possibly be because of Musk's behavior as of late?
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
sitkack 2y ago
> In other words, Tesla actually has $72.28 billion in debt. That is more than the company is realistically worth! Would love some analysis on the numbers in this post. On the whole, do they have legs?

Tesla Will Die

77 points by doener 2y ago

fullshark 2y ago

Is it finally time to short it safely?

toomuchtodo 2y ago
Not yet. (not investing advice)
short_sells_poo 2y ago
It's never safe to short - by definition. A penny stock can easily rally 100% in it's death-throes and take out the hapless short seller. As a retail investor, I strongly advise against shorting. Can you make money? Yes. Is the game stacked and rigged against you? Also yes. The best thing to do is redeem TSLA holdings and put them in other companies (or better yet, into a broad based index).
thworp 2y ago
It's much better to buy Puts (limited downside). The problem with buying them now is that you're way too late. By now the premiums are quite high, even for huge declines. If you bought a few batches at different strike prices expiring 2026 in 2021 you would be sitting on some serious profit now.
tim333 2y ago
Wait till it runs up a bit first and use a stop loss.

BirAdam 2y ago

Never underestimate hype in keeping stuff alive, and absolutely never underestimate the willingness of government to save companies that should go under. I don’t much care for Keynes, but as I’ve gotten older, the “wild animal spirits” makes more sense as markets are seemingly never rational. Even when they are, the government now likes to “bail out” companies that the market has said ought fall. For Musk, be he one thing or another, he has been a political animal from the start. He chose sectors where government money was available, where politicians could gain credibility with the public by supporting his companies (electric cars, solar, space), and he consistently got the hype running high enough to provide radical over-valuations. When the political winds began to shift, so did he. He immediately pivoted to position himself no-longer as center-left, but somewhere right-of-center when the majority of the USA went that direction. The primary issue with this is that to the US right… electric cars and solar aren’t too interesting, and space while admirable isn’t a priority. I think that any prognostication on the death of Tesla is a bit hasty, but Musk’s usual strategy is certainly in question.

short_sells_poo 2y ago
I struggle to understand what is Musk's endgame here. 95% of Tesla's client base is (was) upper-middle class liberal/left leaning professionals. He spent the last 4 years relentlessly trolling and ostracizing these people, and then seemingly went full loony with nazi salutes, re-tweeting far right accounts on X and to top it all off he endorsed the far right political parties in Europe, which really pushed the nail into the coffin. The US admin who was championed by Musk wasted no time to cancel EV subsidies and investments into charging infrastructure and is currently pushing "beautiful, clean coal". This seems like the most braindead, schizophrenic, and short-sighted set of blunders I've seen in my life. A child would've been able to predict what is going to happen. So I'm really stumped. He cannot be this stupid, surely? He cannot be this ignorant of the impact of his own actions? Is he really so deep in an echo chamber that he thought the Tesla gravy train will just keep going? Tesla as a brand is basically dead in Europe - one of his biggest markets. There's no salvaging this. No comeback that he can engineer. Maybe he saves his bacon in the US by enough government money grift to keep Tesla alive, but he'd have to do a ridiculous amount of it to keep the dream of >100 PE ratio valuation going.
- ohnoitsahuman 2y ago
  Many of us upper-class liberals have moved to the right. Shitty cities filled with crime and weirdos after your kids will do that to you.
  - ffudklif 2y ago
    [flagged]
  - Bluntiiono 2y ago
    [flagged]
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - damnesian 2y ago
    that's no solution. The standard of a workable city is Stockholm, not Tampa.

Ecco 2y ago

[flagged]

drewbug01 2y ago
> Why? How is that not censorship? In a somewhat convenient turn of events for pro-Musk camp on HN: Musk is now deeply embroiled in politics. Thus, any discussion of him is inherently political. And of course, politics is largely "off-topic" for HN. So in addition to the usual flagging and downvoting of Musk-critical comments and stories, they can also be flagged and downvoted for being "political." I don't foresee it changing anytime soon. Not at least until enough techies finally understand that virtually everything is "political" to some extent, and I don't expect that to happen until we hit the riots-in-the-streets stage of Musk's current political project.
- nh23423fefe 2y ago
  > everything is "political" to some extent no. even if i agreed with that platitude, why does it even matter. its off topic. rant about nazis elsewhere.

sowhat25 2y ago

[flagged]

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

Bluntiiono 2y ago

I realized that the stock market has a lot of gambling aspects for a handful of companies. Tesla is/was hyped up and everyone said "but its not just a car company". But okay the Tesla Solar stuff is available for ages by now, the robot can't be bought yet and the first chinese companies sell them at 30k (i always assumed the first would hit the market with 100k and more) and from a robot taxi perspective, there are so many other companies doing it already... Add 1 + 1 + 1 and you do not get the valuation of what tesla is valuated at all. And then Musk. Holy shit Musk. The borring company was braindead and showed a very clear very ungenius brain fart. His way of selling but not deliverying is now omnipresent. And his election interfering in usa and eu will catch up with him as everything else will.

trgn 2y ago
the intuition behind boring company was that traffic could go faster in dedicated pipes. it's actually the right company for the wrong reasons. there are more important reasons traffic should go underground. car roads are sewers; noisy, polluting, stink. any city will benefit when cars are removed from the surface. for that reasons alone, from all his companies, i hope boring company would succeed the most.
- tim333 2y ago
  Yeah the boring company doesn't seem a bad gamble to me even if it doesn't work out. They've even got a new project lined up doing a Dubai loop similar to the Las Vegas one. It's the pivot to nazi salutes etc. that seems nuts.
  - Bluntiiono 2y ago
    So boring company did 3 km of tunnel in 7 years how is this not a bad gamble? Thats clearly showing a ton of issues and that the original concerns from everyone who has any knowledge on building tunnels, mentioned. And everyone who does't mind going into a tube, were if anything goes wrong, the hole tunnel becomes a death tunnel,...
- Bluntiiono 2y ago

mmastrac 2y ago

Couldn't have happened to a bigger dickhead founder, honestly. Elon's cult of personality has finally popped. I've never seen such a massive waste of potential and reputation as that dude went through in the last few years. Was it the drugs? Lack of self-confidence? Just fundamental incompatibility with fame?

Trasmatta 2y ago
I think Sam Altman had it right: "his whole life is from a position of insecurity".

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

belter 2y ago

The killer: "Mercedes CLA EV is finally here and it has nearly 500 miles range" - https://electrek.co/2025/03/13/mercedes-cla-ev-finally-here-nearly-500-miles-range/ https://electrek.co/2025/03/13/mercedes-cla-ev-finally-here-...

bdangubic 2y ago
there are only two types benz owners :) - people that bought it once - people that bought it never

moralestapia 2y ago

This article starts ok but then it just becomes a rant against Musk that does not make a lot of sense. >SpaceX isn’t doing so well either, with Starlink being far from breaking even and Starship being a total mess. I agree Tesla is pretty much a shitcoin but that bit about SpaceX is just not true. The author very clearly wants Musk to fail, for whatever reason, and in doing so loses all objectivity.

planb 2y ago
It‘s so sad that this happens all the time. People have valid arguments based on facts and then continue to tell stories based on their opinions and values.
- bdangubic 2y ago
  this is because elon is a cult-like figure and I am not sure anyone can objectively present any arguments for anything when he’s the topic

kmlx 2y ago

this website seems to be spam: https://www.planetearthandbeyond.co https://www.planetearthandbeyond.co titles of recent articles: (Tesla) This Is Just Pathetic. Talk about clutching at straws. Tesla Can, And Will, Fall Further. Starship Was Doomed From The Beginning Starship Is In Deep Trouble This Is How Tesla Will Die Tesla Is Dying, And Polestar Wants To Kill It Tesla Is So Screwed Tesla's Downfall Is Imminent Is Elon Musk A Groomer?

akan01n 2y ago
yeap! looks like another A.I blog generator

CivBase 2y ago

Except none of this is new. Tesla has been overvalued for the better part of the last decade but it shows no signs of coming back to Earth any time soon. Elon's individual reputation doesn't seem to have much effect on the company's value either. It's not like people only just started hating him recently. Tesla's valuation will inevitably come crashing back down to reality, but something will have to change to trigger that collapse. My bet is the change will have nothing to do with Tesla or Elon. It will be some seemingly-unrelated change entirely outside their control.

moolcool 2y ago
> but it shows no signs of coming back to Earth any time soon. It's down almost 40% YTD
diggan 2y ago
> Elon's individual reputation doesn't seem to have much effect on the company's value either. It's not like people only just started hating him recently. Unless the company fucked up something majorly in recent times, what is the reason for the stock price to fall so fast right now? Large swaths of people who would have been perfect customer for Tesla, have committed to never buying anything Tesla, especially because of his very public nazi-salute and supporting far-right parties in Europe, and sales are already down across the world. Did people stop buying Tesla because some new software update, or could it possibly be because of Musk's behavior as of late?

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

sitkack 2y ago

> In other words, Tesla actually has $72.28 billion in debt. That is more than the company is realistically worth! Would love some analysis on the numbers in this post. On the whole, do they have legs?