5 ms·

> To prevent China from building whizzy AI chips, America has barred ASML from selling its most advanced gear to Chinese chipmakers. Isn't that the craziest th

> To prevent China from building whizzy AI chips, America has barred ASML from selling its most advanced gear to Chinese chipmakers. Isn't that the craziest thing? America can prevent the Netherlands selling goods to China. Isolationist America? What did they threaten the Netherlands with, I wonder?

stevenwoo 2y ago
It’s part of the license agreement ASML signed to commercialize ultra violet lithography since the idea originated in Lawrence Livermore Labs research.
- mytailorisrich 2y ago
  Sure but even without this if the US told the Netherlands to jump they would. The US have a huge influence over the Netherlands economically, politically, and militarily (their airforce is a US hardware showroom, basically, which also highlights the political influence). Just the fact that some tech comes for Lawrence Livermore Labs shows that relations are "tight".
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > US have a huge influence over the Netherlands economically, politically, and militarily It's important to remember that this influence is a product of goodwill. (Wouldn't have thought I'd have to mention this a year ago...) The Dutch are beginning to decouple from America [1] because despite those economic and military ties, if it isn't supported politically and culturally, it's difficult to project. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43401487 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43401487
    - mytailorisrich 2y ago
      Why do people repeat and believe this "goodwill" propaganda? Countries don't behave out of goodwill, they do out of interests. Same as now. This "decoupling" angle is a product of interests in the EU "deep state", which sees an apportubity to do a power grab. Note how suddenly the EU tries to insert itself in military matters... and people buy it hook, line, and sinker, too.
- fancyfredbot 2y ago
  If you do business in the US as ASML does then it's a good idea to comply with sanctions. Otherwise they'll sanction you too. Would be interesting to see how that would work out for ASML specifically since US obviously wants their products. But I think it would be catastrophic for both sides if the US sanctioned ASML. Less catastrophic for ASML to comply. The US has successfully fined many EU companies for OFAC violations, for example. This is especially ridiculous because the EU actually required European companies NOT to comply with US sanctions on Iran. (Note that I don't think this specific restriction on selling fab equipment to comes comes from OFAC)
  - throwaway5752 2y ago
    If you do business in the US as ASML does then it's a good idea to comply with sanctions. Otherwise they'll sanction you too. It only works until it does not, and it works less well if one does not abuse it. Maybe this administration will just make it more profitable and safer to ally with China at this rate. A number of countries will be making this decision in the next four years, and Americans very well may be disappointed.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      For what it's worth, Trump isn't unique in being sanctions happy. His drug of choice is tariffs, and those are more simply statutorily remedied by making IEEPA [1] actions subject to (a) a mandatory delay and (b) the CRA [2]. [1] https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45618 https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45618 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Review_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Review_Act
      - fancyfredbot 2y ago
        The Biden administration imposed the export controls which prevent ASML from shipping their EUV machines to China.
    - tonyhart7 2y ago
      "safer to ally with China at this rate" until china decide to conquer you politically,economically etc, well its same with US honestly but US atleast have functional democracy
TeMPOraL 2y ago
> What did they threaten the Netherlands with, I wonder? Explicitly? Probably nothing. Implicitly? Nukes. That's where the buck stops in geopolitics. Ultimately, all international interaction is backed by implicit threat of war - and, for past couple decades, nukes are the trump card. The world is divided between the "haves", and the "have nots", and the "have nots" can't do anything if the "haves" put the nuclear option onto the table. Of course, in polite company, nothing ever gets to that stage; the jobs of the leaders, diplomats, advisers, etc. is to keep everything low-key enough to not escalate beyond horse trading and strongly-worded letters. But everyone is acutely aware that the threat of violence is implicitly always there, and who can credibly threaten whom.
- Qiu_Zhanxuan 2y ago
  the Netherlands (and most of the European countries) has the skills to build nukes and ICBM in 6 months if it wanted to. The tech is 80 years old at this point.
  - dcl 2y ago
    6 months?
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > the Netherlands (and most of the European countries) has the skills to build nukes and ICBM in 6 months if it wanted to Eh, probably not. The Dutch have a serious nuclear power economy [1]. But procuring and refining the uranium would take at least a year. Their larger strategic deficit in long-range missile production (or a civil launch industry). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_Netherlands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_Netherlan...
    - philipkglass 2y ago
      The Netherlands already has a domestic uranium enrichment facility that can perform 5000 tons of separative work per year: https://www.urenco.com/global-operations/urenco-nederland https://www.urenco.com/global-operations/urenco-nederland Because of the counter-intuitive way uranium enrichment works, enrichment from natural uranium to commercial reactor fuel takes more separative work than going from commercial reactor fuel to bomb material: https://scipython.com/blog/uranium-enrichment-and-the-separative-work-unit-swu/ https://scipython.com/blog/uranium-enrichment-and-the-separa... Because commercial power reactors consume so much uranium per year, the on-site inventory needed just to produce a year's worth of commercial reactor fuel is enough to make many bomb cores. Nuclear breakout could be very fast if the Netherlands were willing to endure all the diplomatic consequences of withdrawing from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. I agree about the longer timeline to develop a ballistic missile system that could deliver a warhead. EDIT: switched erroneous "less" to "more"
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> America can prevent the Netherlands selling goods to China EUV lithography was jointly developed by the U.S. and the Netherlands [1][2][3]. [1] https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort/ https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort/ [2] https://www.llnl.gov/article/27641/euvl-partnership-makes-its-stand https://www.llnl.gov/article/27641/euvl-partnership-makes-it... [3] https://www.asml.com/en/news/stories/2022/making-euv-lab-to-fab https://www.asml.com/en/news/stories/2022/making-euv-lab-to-...
- fancyfredbot 2y ago
  [2] is kinda funny: "Processors built using EUV technology are expected to reach speeds of up to 10 GHz in 2005-2006."
  - NikkiA 2y ago
    To be fair, ISTR that around 2005 there was a group running a pentium 4 at 9.something GHz by liquid nitrogen cooling it.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
tonyhart7 2y ago
Yes because ASML use American technology, same like You cant produce disney character without breaking the law despite you can perfectly recreated it
refulgentis 2y ago
I mean something changed recently in America

stevenwoo 2y ago

It’s part of the license agreement ASML signed to commercialize ultra violet lithography since the idea originated in Lawrence Livermore Labs research.

mytailorisrich 2y ago
Sure but even without this if the US told the Netherlands to jump they would. The US have a huge influence over the Netherlands economically, politically, and militarily (their airforce is a US hardware showroom, basically, which also highlights the political influence). Just the fact that some tech comes for Lawrence Livermore Labs shows that relations are "tight".
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > US have a huge influence over the Netherlands economically, politically, and militarily It's important to remember that this influence is a product of goodwill. (Wouldn't have thought I'd have to mention this a year ago...) The Dutch are beginning to decouple from America [1] because despite those economic and military ties, if it isn't supported politically and culturally, it's difficult to project. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43401487 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43401487
  - mytailorisrich 2y ago
    Why do people repeat and believe this "goodwill" propaganda? Countries don't behave out of goodwill, they do out of interests. Same as now. This "decoupling" angle is a product of interests in the EU "deep state", which sees an apportubity to do a power grab. Note how suddenly the EU tries to insert itself in military matters... and people buy it hook, line, and sinker, too.
fancyfredbot 2y ago
If you do business in the US as ASML does then it's a good idea to comply with sanctions. Otherwise they'll sanction you too. Would be interesting to see how that would work out for ASML specifically since US obviously wants their products. But I think it would be catastrophic for both sides if the US sanctioned ASML. Less catastrophic for ASML to comply. The US has successfully fined many EU companies for OFAC violations, for example. This is especially ridiculous because the EU actually required European companies NOT to comply with US sanctions on Iran. (Note that I don't think this specific restriction on selling fab equipment to comes comes from OFAC)
- throwaway5752 2y ago
  If you do business in the US as ASML does then it's a good idea to comply with sanctions. Otherwise they'll sanction you too. It only works until it does not, and it works less well if one does not abuse it. Maybe this administration will just make it more profitable and safer to ally with China at this rate. A number of countries will be making this decision in the next four years, and Americans very well may be disappointed.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    For what it's worth, Trump isn't unique in being sanctions happy. His drug of choice is tariffs, and those are more simply statutorily remedied by making IEEPA [1] actions subject to (a) a mandatory delay and (b) the CRA [2]. [1] https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45618 https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45618 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Review_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Review_Act
    - fancyfredbot 2y ago
      The Biden administration imposed the export controls which prevent ASML from shipping their EUV machines to China.
  - tonyhart7 2y ago
    "safer to ally with China at this rate" until china decide to conquer you politically,economically etc, well its same with US honestly but US atleast have functional democracy

TeMPOraL 2y ago

> What did they threaten the Netherlands with, I wonder? Explicitly? Probably nothing. Implicitly? Nukes. That's where the buck stops in geopolitics. Ultimately, all international interaction is backed by implicit threat of war - and, for past couple decades, nukes are the trump card. The world is divided between the "haves", and the "have nots", and the "have nots" can't do anything if the "haves" put the nuclear option onto the table. Of course, in polite company, nothing ever gets to that stage; the jobs of the leaders, diplomats, advisers, etc. is to keep everything low-key enough to not escalate beyond horse trading and strongly-worded letters. But everyone is acutely aware that the threat of violence is implicitly always there, and who can credibly threaten whom.

Qiu_Zhanxuan 2y ago
the Netherlands (and most of the European countries) has the skills to build nukes and ICBM in 6 months if it wanted to. The tech is 80 years old at this point.
- dcl 2y ago
  6 months?
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > the Netherlands (and most of the European countries) has the skills to build nukes and ICBM in 6 months if it wanted to Eh, probably not. The Dutch have a serious nuclear power economy [1]. But procuring and refining the uranium would take at least a year. Their larger strategic deficit in long-range missile production (or a civil launch industry). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_Netherlands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_Netherlan...
  - philipkglass 2y ago
    The Netherlands already has a domestic uranium enrichment facility that can perform 5000 tons of separative work per year: https://www.urenco.com/global-operations/urenco-nederland https://www.urenco.com/global-operations/urenco-nederland Because of the counter-intuitive way uranium enrichment works, enrichment from natural uranium to commercial reactor fuel takes more separative work than going from commercial reactor fuel to bomb material: https://scipython.com/blog/uranium-enrichment-and-the-separative-work-unit-swu/ https://scipython.com/blog/uranium-enrichment-and-the-separa... Because commercial power reactors consume so much uranium per year, the on-site inventory needed just to produce a year's worth of commercial reactor fuel is enough to make many bomb cores. Nuclear breakout could be very fast if the Netherlands were willing to endure all the diplomatic consequences of withdrawing from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. I agree about the longer timeline to develop a ballistic missile system that could deliver a warhead. EDIT: switched erroneous "less" to "more"

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> America can prevent the Netherlands selling goods to China EUV lithography was jointly developed by the U.S. and the Netherlands [1][2][3]. [1] https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort/ https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort/ [2] https://www.llnl.gov/article/27641/euvl-partnership-makes-its-stand https://www.llnl.gov/article/27641/euvl-partnership-makes-it... [3] https://www.asml.com/en/news/stories/2022/making-euv-lab-to-fab https://www.asml.com/en/news/stories/2022/making-euv-lab-to-...

fancyfredbot 2y ago
[2] is kinda funny: "Processors built using EUV technology are expected to reach speeds of up to 10 GHz in 2005-2006."
- NikkiA 2y ago
  To be fair, ISTR that around 2005 there was a group running a pentium 4 at 9.something GHz by liquid nitrogen cooling it.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

tonyhart7 2y ago

Yes because ASML use American technology, same like You cant produce disney character without breaking the law despite you can perfectly recreated it

refulgentis 2y ago

I mean something changed recently in America