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> Every demographic commits petty crimes and code violations at about the same rate Do you have data backing this claim? For example, homicides (that are not a

> Every demographic commits petty crimes and code violations at about the same rate Do you have data backing this claim? For example, homicides (that are not a subject for reporting bias) don’t follow a uniform distribution, so I would expect other crimes to also be non-uniform.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
Centigonal 2y ago
I remember, back when cannabis was illegal in most states, a common argument was that white and black people reported using cannabis at the same rate when surveyed. However, many, many more black people ended up in prison for it. Here is a survey of US youths that supports this premise: https://monitoringthefuture.org/data/panel/demographic-subgroups/#drug=%22Alcohol%22 https://monitoringthefuture.org/data/panel/demographic-subgr...
- Aloisius 2y ago
  I'm confused. That doesn't appear to show the same rates between demographics. It appears to show generally more frequent use in men than women, younger than older and until somewhat recently, white than black or hispanic.
  - jackyinger 2y ago
    The data backs up the grandparent’s post that blacks and Hispanics were disproportionately punished for their use compared to whites.
    - nickff 2y ago
      Not parent or grandparent, but ‘disproportionate’ is different from ‘about the same’; you’re shifting the goalposts.
      - kristjansson 2y ago
        Direction matters? same or _lower_ frequency of use does not seem like 'shifting the goalposts' on the original claim of disproportionate _incarceration_.
        j4coh 2y ago
        Direction matters, though as the answer to a different question than whether rate of committing crimes is uniform. We are in this sub thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43393070 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43393070
        kristjansson 2y ago
        > whether rate of committing crimes is uniform The above linked data show self-reported cannabis use within +/- 10% over the relevant pre-legalization period (before 2012), if anything with a slight advantage to whites. Drug arrest and incarceration rates vary by much, much more (factors of 2-6 between whites and blacks). Against that, use rates of 15 vs 13ish vs 12.5ish are as good as uniform , esp. on a survey with all the inherent variability therein (even for one as competent and longstanding as the cited work). So what's the quibble? That the shares aren't exactly equal? Or that there are other demographic cuts with larger differences (and, y'know, aligned carceral disparities)? Or that cannabis use isn't representative of 'petty crime'?
        j4coh 2y ago
        The quibble was that > Every demographic commits petty crimes and code violations at about the same rate .. is not actually true, so better not to claim it as part of a strong argument.
        kristjansson 2y ago
        They argument does not depend in the slightest on the equality of crime rates, its depends on the their similarity. The data linked show quite similar rates of reported use for cannabis. You can make all sorts of valid counterarguments at this point. Refuting the language used to express the argument ('uniform', 'equal') is meaningless-to-disingenuous nitpicking of its form with basically no consequences for its substance.
  - Centigonal 2y ago
    Yes, that's what the survey I linked indicates. I didn't want to make that claim because that's not the argument I'd heard in the past, even though that is what this survey indicates.
- coolspot 2y ago
  > people reported using cannabis at the same rate when surveyed. However, many, many more black people ended up in prison for it. As I understand it, people went to prison mostly for selling or possessing amounts that are implying selling. Which might explain the difference. Would you go to prison for possessing a single joint back then?
  - alasdair_ 2y ago
    >Would you go to prison for possessing a single joint back then? Yes, Harvard Professor Timothy Leary was sentenced to 30 years in prison (!) for having a single partially-smoked joint in his car.
  - bakuninsbart 2y ago
    It might. But racism is a major more obvious and plausible explanation.
- decremental 2y ago
  [flagged]
southernplaces7 2y ago
Do you know of some society in which "petty crimes and code violations" are more or less similar socially to homicides? I'd suggest pondering a comment more carefully. People mostly don't contemplate gunning someone down anywhere near as frequently or thoughtlessly as they might jaywalk, or get a speeding ticket. (though there are exceptions of course)
- gottorf 2y ago
  The comparison doesn't have to be with homicides. "Every demographic does X at about the same rate" is such a flat-out wrong assumption that you'd really have to cherry-pick X, with lots of caveats and conditions, for it to hold true. I think there's an ingrained sense of revulsion, in all of us that live in the cultural era that descended from Enlightenment ideals of equality for all, against the idea that there exist observable group-level differences on nearly any metric you could think of, but that doesn't make it any less true.
  - forgotoldacc 2y ago
    The statement was about petty crimes. Things like downloading a song without paying. If you think people of certain ethnic, racial, political, or religious demographics are more likely to download a song without permissions, I'd like to know what demographics you think are the most likely and least likely to do it. Because I don't know of a single person in my life who has a computer and hasn't done it.
    - marcuskane2 2y ago
      > Things like downloading a song without paying. That is not a crime. Uploading/distributing/broadcasting a song without copyright permission to do so, might conditionally be a crime, if that usage does not fall within "Fair Use" such as for education, journalism or commentary. Let's stop ceding more power and control to the copyright cartel, and be careful not to repeat their propaganda that misleads people into thinking sharing books or other media needs to always involve a payment to some publishing corporation.
sitkack 2y ago
[flagged]
tbrownaw 2y ago
> Do you have data backing this claim? I read it as a scenario / "even if" for the presented thought experiment, not a load-bearing assertion about reality. As in the argument being made works equally well whether either way, and trying to challenge it misses the point.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
bhouston 2y ago
> Do you have data backing this claim? For example, homicides (that are not a subject for reporting bias) don’t follow a uniform distribution, so I would expect other crimes to also be non-uniform. Crime rates are likely different for different socioeconomic classes for many reasons, but also the socioeconomic class likely determines in part the types of crimes. For example, poor people are more likely to do petty crime and physical crimes, while rich people tend to do complex frauds involving large sums. So you cannot compare rates for one particular crime across socioeconomic groups because they will gravitate towards the opportunities that are present to their class.
alasdair_ 2y ago
homicide is not a "petty crime" or a "code violation" - that should be all the data you need.
- maest 2y ago
  This conversation is basically: "All zebras are red" "Actually, if you look at studies, you can see that horses come in all types of colours. So I would expect zebras to be the same" "Horses are not zebras, that should be all the proof you need to accept that all zebras are red."
dragonwriter 2y ago
> homicides (that are not a subject for reporting bias) There is very serious bias in which deaths are labelled homicides, and in who is held responsible for them. The idea that homicide stats are bias-free is weirdly pervasive, but absolutely without basis, on either the victimization or (even moreso, since the prior bias also impacts this on top of the direct bias applicable to it) perpetration side.
- Wumpnot 2y ago
  You will need to provide evidence if you want anyone to believe that

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

Centigonal 2y ago

I remember, back when cannabis was illegal in most states, a common argument was that white and black people reported using cannabis at the same rate when surveyed. However, many, many more black people ended up in prison for it. Here is a survey of US youths that supports this premise: https://monitoringthefuture.org/data/panel/demographic-subgroups/#drug=%22Alcohol%22 https://monitoringthefuture.org/data/panel/demographic-subgr...

Aloisius 2y ago
I'm confused. That doesn't appear to show the same rates between demographics. It appears to show generally more frequent use in men than women, younger than older and until somewhat recently, white than black or hispanic.
- jackyinger 2y ago
  The data backs up the grandparent’s post that blacks and Hispanics were disproportionately punished for their use compared to whites.
  - nickff 2y ago
    Not parent or grandparent, but ‘disproportionate’ is different from ‘about the same’; you’re shifting the goalposts.
    - kristjansson 2y ago
      Direction matters? same or _lower_ frequency of use does not seem like 'shifting the goalposts' on the original claim of disproportionate _incarceration_.
      - j4coh 2y ago
        Direction matters, though as the answer to a different question than whether rate of committing crimes is uniform. We are in this sub thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43393070 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43393070
        kristjansson 2y ago
        > whether rate of committing crimes is uniform The above linked data show self-reported cannabis use within +/- 10% over the relevant pre-legalization period (before 2012), if anything with a slight advantage to whites. Drug arrest and incarceration rates vary by much, much more (factors of 2-6 between whites and blacks). Against that, use rates of 15 vs 13ish vs 12.5ish are as good as uniform , esp. on a survey with all the inherent variability therein (even for one as competent and longstanding as the cited work). So what's the quibble? That the shares aren't exactly equal? Or that there are other demographic cuts with larger differences (and, y'know, aligned carceral disparities)? Or that cannabis use isn't representative of 'petty crime'?
        j4coh 2y ago
        The quibble was that > Every demographic commits petty crimes and code violations at about the same rate .. is not actually true, so better not to claim it as part of a strong argument.
        kristjansson 2y ago
        They argument does not depend in the slightest on the equality of crime rates, its depends on the their similarity. The data linked show quite similar rates of reported use for cannabis. You can make all sorts of valid counterarguments at this point. Refuting the language used to express the argument ('uniform', 'equal') is meaningless-to-disingenuous nitpicking of its form with basically no consequences for its substance.
- Centigonal 2y ago
  Yes, that's what the survey I linked indicates. I didn't want to make that claim because that's not the argument I'd heard in the past, even though that is what this survey indicates.
coolspot 2y ago
> people reported using cannabis at the same rate when surveyed. However, many, many more black people ended up in prison for it. As I understand it, people went to prison mostly for selling or possessing amounts that are implying selling. Which might explain the difference. Would you go to prison for possessing a single joint back then?
- alasdair_ 2y ago
  >Would you go to prison for possessing a single joint back then? Yes, Harvard Professor Timothy Leary was sentenced to 30 years in prison (!) for having a single partially-smoked joint in his car.
- bakuninsbart 2y ago
  It might. But racism is a major more obvious and plausible explanation.
decremental 2y ago
[flagged]

southernplaces7 2y ago

Do you know of some society in which "petty crimes and code violations" are more or less similar socially to homicides? I'd suggest pondering a comment more carefully. People mostly don't contemplate gunning someone down anywhere near as frequently or thoughtlessly as they might jaywalk, or get a speeding ticket. (though there are exceptions of course)

gottorf 2y ago
The comparison doesn't have to be with homicides. "Every demographic does X at about the same rate" is such a flat-out wrong assumption that you'd really have to cherry-pick X, with lots of caveats and conditions, for it to hold true. I think there's an ingrained sense of revulsion, in all of us that live in the cultural era that descended from Enlightenment ideals of equality for all, against the idea that there exist observable group-level differences on nearly any metric you could think of, but that doesn't make it any less true.
- forgotoldacc 2y ago
  The statement was about petty crimes. Things like downloading a song without paying. If you think people of certain ethnic, racial, political, or religious demographics are more likely to download a song without permissions, I'd like to know what demographics you think are the most likely and least likely to do it. Because I don't know of a single person in my life who has a computer and hasn't done it.
  - marcuskane2 2y ago
    > Things like downloading a song without paying. That is not a crime. Uploading/distributing/broadcasting a song without copyright permission to do so, might conditionally be a crime, if that usage does not fall within "Fair Use" such as for education, journalism or commentary. Let's stop ceding more power and control to the copyright cartel, and be careful not to repeat their propaganda that misleads people into thinking sharing books or other media needs to always involve a payment to some publishing corporation.

sitkack 2y ago

[flagged]

tbrownaw 2y ago

> Do you have data backing this claim? I read it as a scenario / "even if" for the presented thought experiment, not a load-bearing assertion about reality. As in the argument being made works equally well whether either way, and trying to challenge it misses the point.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

bhouston 2y ago

> Do you have data backing this claim? For example, homicides (that are not a subject for reporting bias) don’t follow a uniform distribution, so I would expect other crimes to also be non-uniform. Crime rates are likely different for different socioeconomic classes for many reasons, but also the socioeconomic class likely determines in part the types of crimes. For example, poor people are more likely to do petty crime and physical crimes, while rich people tend to do complex frauds involving large sums. So you cannot compare rates for one particular crime across socioeconomic groups because they will gravitate towards the opportunities that are present to their class.

alasdair_ 2y ago

homicide is not a "petty crime" or a "code violation" - that should be all the data you need.

maest 2y ago
This conversation is basically: "All zebras are red" "Actually, if you look at studies, you can see that horses come in all types of colours. So I would expect zebras to be the same" "Horses are not zebras, that should be all the proof you need to accept that all zebras are red."

dragonwriter 2y ago

> homicides (that are not a subject for reporting bias) There is very serious bias in which deaths are labelled homicides, and in who is held responsible for them. The idea that homicide stats are bias-free is weirdly pervasive, but absolutely without basis, on either the victimization or (even moreso, since the prior bias also impacts this on top of the direct bias applicable to it) perpetration side.

Wumpnot 2y ago
You will need to provide evidence if you want anyone to believe that