5 ms·

Here's an interesting thought about how preferential surveillance can lead to repression even when it's public and not itself acted on: 1. Every demographic co

Here's an interesting thought about how preferential surveillance can lead to repression even when it's public and not itself acted on: 1. Every demographic commits petty crimes and code violations at about the same rate (things like parking violations and music piracy). 2. However, people who are being watched will be caught more often. 3. The end result is that people in the "wrong" crowd on average are punished more than people in the "right" one at an equal level of misbehavior.

amarcheschi 2y ago
Just today I was preparing some slides for a course that makes the student participate and show some topics we're interested in regarding social and ethical issues in compsci I googled a bit and I found a hn comment that talked about an article which explains what you say Basically, they estimate drug use in the population, and they draw a map, and black and white people more or less have the same habits in drugs use. They draw a map of the past arrests by the police for drug crimes and they're skewed towards the black neighborhood. There's a bit more about it since the article dealt with predictive policing and Ai but the gist is what you're saying, and this causes a self reinforcing feedback for the police (which in turn arrests more black people and the loop goes on) https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2016.00960.x https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1740-...
- jimbob45 2y ago
  Sounds like that estimate is doing all of the heavy lifting and cannot, by definition, ever be verified.
  - amarcheschi 2y ago
    Yeah, that's quite a strong assumption. Basically, they're assuming that the local drug use is similar to the national one. While not perfect, they provide some other cases in which these data were deemed more trustworthy than police reports. at least to me it is quite crystalline that a system relying on past police data to predict future crime will be inherently biased by the fact that the police data itself is biased towards certain demographics
- Wumpnot 2y ago
  Also arrests are going to be targeted at people selling more so than using, so it isn't the correct metric to begin with.
eastbound 2y ago
[flagged]
- pesus 2y ago
  What exactly is a "good demographic"? This sounds an awful lot like judging people based on their inherent characteristics.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > What exactly is a "good demographic"? Let's be realistic, given two towns, one whose median age is 70 and the other filled with teenage boys sporting new licenses, one of them is going to need to invest more into policing resources than the other, ceteris paribus. I wouldn't extend that to calling teenage boys "bad." But we did come with higher negative externalities to our communities, particularly when behind a car, than other demos.
- blorkusmelorkus 2y ago
  [flagged]
coolspot 2y ago
> Every demographic commits petty crimes and code violations at about the same rate Do you have data backing this claim? For example, homicides (that are not a subject for reporting bias) don’t follow a uniform distribution, so I would expect other crimes to also be non-uniform.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- Centigonal 2y ago
  I remember, back when cannabis was illegal in most states, a common argument was that white and black people reported using cannabis at the same rate when surveyed. However, many, many more black people ended up in prison for it. Here is a survey of US youths that supports this premise: https://monitoringthefuture.org/data/panel/demographic-subgroups/#drug=%22Alcohol%22 https://monitoringthefuture.org/data/panel/demographic-subgr...
  - Aloisius 2y ago
    I'm confused. That doesn't appear to show the same rates between demographics. It appears to show generally more frequent use in men than women, younger than older and until somewhat recently, white than black or hispanic.
    - jackyinger 2y ago
      The data backs up the grandparent’s post that blacks and Hispanics were disproportionately punished for their use compared to whites.
      - nickff 2y ago
        Not parent or grandparent, but ‘disproportionate’ is different from ‘about the same’; you’re shifting the goalposts.
        2y ago
deepsun 2y ago
1. Bogus claim. I'm pretty sure Swiss drivers run red light way less than Lebanese, for example.
Aloisius 2y ago
> 1. Every demographic commits petty crimes and code violations at about the same rate (things like parking violations and music piracy). What? The rates of parking violations and music piracy vary dramatically with age and gender.
- bryanrasmussen 2y ago
  I suppose the implication could be that the set petty crimes and code violations, which includes many things, among which are parking violations and music piracy (two things that vary dramatically between demographics), has an equal distribution between all demographics. If parking violations are an old demographic problem, and music piracy are a young demographic problem for example (even though it is assumed that more things are in the set than just these two) then it could be that they roughly cancel each other out. I guess one would really need to know what the full set petty crimes and code violations consists of to be sure.
  - wahnfrieden 2y ago
    See NYC's recent law changes to legalize jaywalking. I won't pull up the exact citations but there were evenly distributed tendencies to jaywalk yet something like 80-90% of police engagements were with PoC
    - bryanrasmussen 2y ago
      I am not disputing that, the comment I replied to assumed that offenses were not evenly distributed because two of the examples in the set of petty crimes was not evenly distributed offenses by demographic. Note that this is commission of offense as opposed to say police activity around offense, which is a different thing, as you note with your jaywalking example.
kristjansson 2y ago
If there are lost keys everywhere you will actually find some looking under the streetlight. Honest statistical reports may even be written highlighting the frequency of lost-key-findings under streetlights. Credulous readers might begin to suggest that some innate factor of the pooling of their light causes keys to fall exactly within boundaries of their illumination. They might even prefer elected representatives that propose streetlight removal policies, to reduce the scourge of lost keys.
- monkeyfun 2y ago
  Beautifully written. I especially adore: > Honest statistical reports may even be written highlighting the frequency of lost-key-findings under streetlights. The fact you note them as honest is so rhetorically powerful that I'm dead certain to reference this concept/phrasing again in the future.
  - tempodox 2y ago
    “Never trust a statistic you haven't faked yourself”. Of course “faked” is deliberately overblown, but just the way you collect your data could already amount to a “fake”, even if it wasn't deliberate. So those statistics mentioned by GP could be honest as far as intentions are concerned. It would merely be incompetence.
RVuRnvbM2e 2y ago
In which HN deduces the existence of Institutional Racism from first principles.
catlikesshrimp 2y ago
My post is maybe a huge straw man that supports your post (parent) Incoming Leo Sharp. He transported thousands of kilos of drugs in his car for the Sinaloa Cartel during his career. In the United States. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Sharp https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Sharp Of course, He was white, he was old, he was a United States Veteran. This is just a funny single case.
dotancohen 2y ago
> Here's an interesting thought about how preferential surveillance can lead to repression even when it's public and not itself acted on: > 1. Every demographic commits petty crimes and code violations at about the same rate (things like parking violations and music piracy). > 2. However, people who are being watched will be caught more often. > 3. The end result is that people in the "wrong" crowd on average are punished more than people in the "right" one at an equal level of misbehavior. For what it's worth, the Israeli side sees the situation as every nation has pitfalls and misgivings at about the same rate. However, nations who are under threat from well-funded media campaigns (AlJazeera, BCC) will be discussed more often. The end result is that nations in the "wrong" crowd on average are punished more than nations in the "right" one at an equal level of misbehavior.
- octopoc 2y ago
  Dude. Israel is committing genocide. Your persecution complex is making you blind. Put yourself in your neighbor’s shoes, please. Do this not just to be a descent human being—do this for the sake of your own survival. What will happen when Israel has made every nation hate it more than ever, and the US finally cuts the purse strings?
  - dotancohen 2y ago
    Israel is not committing genocide. Not by any reputable definition of genocide. Israel is waging war against an enemy who in fact clearly states their intention to genocide the Jews. You are correct to be angry about the amount of people dying in this war. But you should direct your anger to those responsible for both starting the war and for directly endangering those people.
    - octopoc 2y ago
      “Look what you made me do” is what you’re saying, but Israel could stop attacking Gaza today and not suffer a single material attack from Gaza for a long time. Way, way more Palestinians have died since October than Jews. Israel has no need to keep on its current course. It has made its point and is now making a completely different point—that it is a cruel nation incapable of self restraint. Nobody can force you to self reflect. Nobody can spare you the consequences if you refuse.

amarcheschi 2y ago

Just today I was preparing some slides for a course that makes the student participate and show some topics we're interested in regarding social and ethical issues in compsci I googled a bit and I found a hn comment that talked about an article which explains what you say Basically, they estimate drug use in the population, and they draw a map, and black and white people more or less have the same habits in drugs use. They draw a map of the past arrests by the police for drug crimes and they're skewed towards the black neighborhood. There's a bit more about it since the article dealt with predictive policing and Ai but the gist is what you're saying, and this causes a self reinforcing feedback for the police (which in turn arrests more black people and the loop goes on) https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2016.00960.x https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1740-...

jimbob45 2y ago
Sounds like that estimate is doing all of the heavy lifting and cannot, by definition, ever be verified.
- amarcheschi 2y ago
  Yeah, that's quite a strong assumption. Basically, they're assuming that the local drug use is similar to the national one. While not perfect, they provide some other cases in which these data were deemed more trustworthy than police reports. at least to me it is quite crystalline that a system relying on past police data to predict future crime will be inherently biased by the fact that the police data itself is biased towards certain demographics
Wumpnot 2y ago
Also arrests are going to be targeted at people selling more so than using, so it isn't the correct metric to begin with.

eastbound 2y ago

[flagged]

pesus 2y ago
What exactly is a "good demographic"? This sounds an awful lot like judging people based on their inherent characteristics.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > What exactly is a "good demographic"? Let's be realistic, given two towns, one whose median age is 70 and the other filled with teenage boys sporting new licenses, one of them is going to need to invest more into policing resources than the other, ceteris paribus. I wouldn't extend that to calling teenage boys "bad." But we did come with higher negative externalities to our communities, particularly when behind a car, than other demos.
blorkusmelorkus 2y ago
[flagged]

coolspot 2y ago

> Every demographic commits petty crimes and code violations at about the same rate Do you have data backing this claim? For example, homicides (that are not a subject for reporting bias) don’t follow a uniform distribution, so I would expect other crimes to also be non-uniform.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
Centigonal 2y ago
I remember, back when cannabis was illegal in most states, a common argument was that white and black people reported using cannabis at the same rate when surveyed. However, many, many more black people ended up in prison for it. Here is a survey of US youths that supports this premise: https://monitoringthefuture.org/data/panel/demographic-subgroups/#drug=%22Alcohol%22 https://monitoringthefuture.org/data/panel/demographic-subgr...
- Aloisius 2y ago
  I'm confused. That doesn't appear to show the same rates between demographics. It appears to show generally more frequent use in men than women, younger than older and until somewhat recently, white than black or hispanic.
  - jackyinger 2y ago
    The data backs up the grandparent’s post that blacks and Hispanics were disproportionately punished for their use compared to whites.
    - nickff 2y ago
      Not parent or grandparent, but ‘disproportionate’ is different from ‘about the same’; you’re shifting the goalposts.
      - 2y ago

deepsun 2y ago

1. Bogus claim. I'm pretty sure Swiss drivers run red light way less than Lebanese, for example.

Aloisius 2y ago

> 1. Every demographic commits petty crimes and code violations at about the same rate (things like parking violations and music piracy). What? The rates of parking violations and music piracy vary dramatically with age and gender.

bryanrasmussen 2y ago
I suppose the implication could be that the set petty crimes and code violations, which includes many things, among which are parking violations and music piracy (two things that vary dramatically between demographics), has an equal distribution between all demographics. If parking violations are an old demographic problem, and music piracy are a young demographic problem for example (even though it is assumed that more things are in the set than just these two) then it could be that they roughly cancel each other out. I guess one would really need to know what the full set petty crimes and code violations consists of to be sure.
- wahnfrieden 2y ago
  See NYC's recent law changes to legalize jaywalking. I won't pull up the exact citations but there were evenly distributed tendencies to jaywalk yet something like 80-90% of police engagements were with PoC
  - bryanrasmussen 2y ago
    I am not disputing that, the comment I replied to assumed that offenses were not evenly distributed because two of the examples in the set of petty crimes was not evenly distributed offenses by demographic. Note that this is commission of offense as opposed to say police activity around offense, which is a different thing, as you note with your jaywalking example.

kristjansson 2y ago

If there are lost keys everywhere you will actually find some looking under the streetlight. Honest statistical reports may even be written highlighting the frequency of lost-key-findings under streetlights. Credulous readers might begin to suggest that some innate factor of the pooling of their light causes keys to fall exactly within boundaries of their illumination. They might even prefer elected representatives that propose streetlight removal policies, to reduce the scourge of lost keys.

monkeyfun 2y ago
Beautifully written. I especially adore: > Honest statistical reports may even be written highlighting the frequency of lost-key-findings under streetlights. The fact you note them as honest is so rhetorically powerful that I'm dead certain to reference this concept/phrasing again in the future.
- tempodox 2y ago
  “Never trust a statistic you haven't faked yourself”. Of course “faked” is deliberately overblown, but just the way you collect your data could already amount to a “fake”, even if it wasn't deliberate. So those statistics mentioned by GP could be honest as far as intentions are concerned. It would merely be incompetence.

RVuRnvbM2e 2y ago

In which HN deduces the existence of Institutional Racism from first principles.

catlikesshrimp 2y ago

My post is maybe a huge straw man that supports your post (parent) Incoming Leo Sharp. He transported thousands of kilos of drugs in his car for the Sinaloa Cartel during his career. In the United States. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Sharp https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Sharp Of course, He was white, he was old, he was a United States Veteran. This is just a funny single case.

dotancohen 2y ago

> Here's an interesting thought about how preferential surveillance can lead to repression even when it's public and not itself acted on: > 1. Every demographic commits petty crimes and code violations at about the same rate (things like parking violations and music piracy). > 2. However, people who are being watched will be caught more often. > 3. The end result is that people in the "wrong" crowd on average are punished more than people in the "right" one at an equal level of misbehavior. For what it's worth, the Israeli side sees the situation as every nation has pitfalls and misgivings at about the same rate. However, nations who are under threat from well-funded media campaigns (AlJazeera, BCC) will be discussed more often. The end result is that nations in the "wrong" crowd on average are punished more than nations in the "right" one at an equal level of misbehavior.

octopoc 2y ago
Dude. Israel is committing genocide. Your persecution complex is making you blind. Put yourself in your neighbor’s shoes, please. Do this not just to be a descent human being—do this for the sake of your own survival. What will happen when Israel has made every nation hate it more than ever, and the US finally cuts the purse strings?
- dotancohen 2y ago
  Israel is not committing genocide. Not by any reputable definition of genocide. Israel is waging war against an enemy who in fact clearly states their intention to genocide the Jews. You are correct to be angry about the amount of people dying in this war. But you should direct your anger to those responsible for both starting the war and for directly endangering those people.
  - octopoc 2y ago
    “Look what you made me do” is what you’re saying, but Israel could stop attacking Gaza today and not suffer a single material attack from Gaza for a long time. Way, way more Palestinians have died since October than Jews. Israel has no need to keep on its current course. It has made its point and is now making a completely different point—that it is a cruel nation incapable of self restraint. Nobody can force you to self reflect. Nobody can spare you the consequences if you refuse.