The financial crisis has little to do with probabilities or risk analysis. It's not like blackjack. It was more like seeing that a ball was falling and would

The financial crisis has little to do with probabilities or risk analysis. It's not like blackjack. It was more like seeing that a ball was falling and would eventually hit the ground. Everyone has latched onto discussions of risk analysis and reward structures because it conveniently excuses widespread idiocy and greed. "Why did I just lose a fortune? Oh it's not my fault, it was a Black Swan! And my fund manager's incentives were not properly regulated." No acknowledgment is ever given to the notion that the financial markets have worked exactly as they should: fools have been separated from their money.