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> we now have 3 countries with the ability to erase entire cities or make the world functionally uninhabitable by humans If we're talking the Russia, the US an

by Nursie 2y ago

> we now have 3 countries with the ability to erase entire cities or make the world functionally uninhabitable by humans If we're talking the Russia, the US and China then they certainly have the largest arsenals, but there's an order of magnitude difference between the stockpiles of the first two and the third. China doesn't have that many more nukes than France, and only has about double the number of warheads of the UK (though it is questionable how independent from the US the UK's capability is). And then there's Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea. (https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_arsenals https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_arsenals)

bpodgursky 2y ago
China is growing their arsenal quickly. And frankly, more of their warheads may actually work than Russia's.
- Nursie 2y ago
  Are they? I'm not especially up on this stuff, but I haven't seen much about their nuclear arsenal lately. It's not that I doubt you - it would be entirely consistent with their general move to throwing their weight around, sending their warships provocatively near to other nations etc etc. Even so, when we have a distribution that's roughly - 5k, 5k, 400, 300, 200, 200, 150, 90, 30 - it seems a little odd to draw the line of who could make the planet uninhabitable after the 400!
defrost 2y ago
Chinese nuclear weapons, 2025 from: Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists ~ Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, Mackenzie Knight | March 12, 2025 The modernization of China’s nuclear arsenal has both accelerated and expanded in recent years. In this issue of the Nuclear Notebook, we estimate that China now possesses approximately 600 nuclear warheads, with more in production to arm future delivery systems. China is believed to have the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal among the nine nuclear-armed states; it is the only Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons that is significantly increasing its nuclear arsenal. * https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-03/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2025/ https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-03/chinese-nuclear-weap... Also, the threshold laid out above was "erase an entire city" OR "make planet unihabitable". Any nation or group with a first gen atomic weapon can erase a city .. exercising that ability can potentially lead to a greater nuclear exchange between others, particularly if it's unclear what happened and what might be about to happen.
- Nursie 2y ago
  Fair enough, thanks :) I imagine France is now starting to polish everything up more fervently as well, after Macron's speech about putting the nation onto a wartime economy last week, and there are other nations now talking about wanting to be under the French nuclear umbrella... We certainly live in interesting times, to abuse that old chinese curse.

by Nursie 2y ago

bpodgursky 2y ago

China is growing their arsenal quickly. And frankly, more of their warheads may actually work than Russia's.

Nursie 2y ago
Are they? I'm not especially up on this stuff, but I haven't seen much about their nuclear arsenal lately. It's not that I doubt you - it would be entirely consistent with their general move to throwing their weight around, sending their warships provocatively near to other nations etc etc. Even so, when we have a distribution that's roughly - 5k, 5k, 400, 300, 200, 200, 150, 90, 30 - it seems a little odd to draw the line of who could make the planet uninhabitable after the 400!

defrost 2y ago

Chinese nuclear weapons, 2025 from: Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists ~ Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, Mackenzie Knight | March 12, 2025 The modernization of China’s nuclear arsenal has both accelerated and expanded in recent years. In this issue of the Nuclear Notebook, we estimate that China now possesses approximately 600 nuclear warheads, with more in production to arm future delivery systems. China is believed to have the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal among the nine nuclear-armed states; it is the only Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons that is significantly increasing its nuclear arsenal. * https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-03/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2025/ https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-03/chinese-nuclear-weap... Also, the threshold laid out above was "erase an entire city" OR "make planet unihabitable". Any nation or group with a first gen atomic weapon can erase a city .. exercising that ability can potentially lead to a greater nuclear exchange between others, particularly if it's unclear what happened and what might be about to happen.

Nursie 2y ago
Fair enough, thanks :) I imagine France is now starting to polish everything up more fervently as well, after Macron's speech about putting the nation onto a wartime economy last week, and there are other nations now talking about wanting to be under the French nuclear umbrella... We certainly live in interesting times, to abuse that old chinese curse.