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> VC has been investing in AI as-if it were a winner takes all market, but it has been obvious that isn’t the case. I really don't see how this was supposed to
by nyarlathotep_ 2y ago
> VC has been investing in AI as-if it were a winner takes all market, but it has been obvious that isn’t the case.
I really don't see how this was supposed to go, and I've never heard an explanation.
I don't see any kind of coherent vision from any of these types.
Most normal folks (i.e not SV/HN types that seem to desire to replace their marketable programming skills with LLM output) really don't "want" LLMs in any real sense.
Sure, people use them like a search engine, kids cheat on homework with them etc, but there's not this overwhelming universal desire for them like there was for, say iPhones.
I never once have heard any sort of proposed roadmap for how LLMs were supposed to work as a product.
They were just going to get, uh "really good" and take everyone's office job or something?*
Normal F500 organizations that are obviously a target for LLM use (via hyperscaler sales) are still yet to see a clear path to "revolutionizing" their workforce or whatever via LLMs-it's just not there. Costs are too high, there's no obvious use case, "hallucinations" are a real impediment etc.
I'll add many of the public usecases for this (i.e those a hyperscaler would blog about as a sales promo) are seriously weak ("we reduced onboarding time by 20% with $MODEL")
I would really like to hear a proposal for how this is all supposed to come together. Does anyone have a concrete plan for the future for all this stuff?
*I'll note, this is NOT the way to sell a product to the masses, either.
Addendum: I'm not an "LLM hater" by any means. I pay for GH Copilot, and have been running local LLMs since it's been a thing (granted with limited hardware, and limited quality)--I intend to wait a bit and buy better hardware with one motivating factor being running local LLMs in a year or so when the open-source offerings stabilize"
- nasmorn 2y agoI have changed from Copilot to Cline with Claude 3.7 and it is a total gamechanger. For some one like me being able to describe a multi file edit is really empowering. I hate that kind of busy work
- SpicyLemonZest 2y agoYou're looking for a proposal for how it's supposed to come together in the future, but VCs are living in the world where it already has come together. Normal F500 organizations have widely adopted LLMs, with OpenAI reporting that 92% of them are customers. (https://www.axios.com/2024/08/29/openai-chatgpt-200-million-weekly-active-users https://www.axios.com/2024/08/29/openai-chatgpt-200-million-...) Determining individual business usage is always a bit sketchy, but at least one survey run by a major staffing firm indicates that a majority of workers and almost all executives use generative AI for their jobs. (https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/01/ai-training-workforce/ https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/01/ai-training-workforc...)