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Charted: The Decline of U.S. Software Developer Jobs
- michpoch 2y agoWhy would you start the graph from 2020? The only thing it shows is that Covid was such a strange time. Stretch the graph to 1995 and then we can talk.
- TeaBrain 2y agoRegardless of what happened during covid, the chart shows the listings have decreased since five years ago, prior to covid.
- aurareturn 2y agoThe point is that was there an overhire/pull forward during covid that we're still paying for or is this a long term trend?
- TeaBrain 2y agoThat's a fair point. Do you have any thoughts on how long it'll take for a decline to qualify as long term?
- Izkata 2y ago(different person) Just eyeballing the graph, If we can attribute the entire spike to a "pulling forward" effect, then I'm guessing it might end late 2026 or so (as a gradual slope over longer period, not a hard noticeable line). Then give it a few months for stabilization / to ignore random normal fluctuations that just happen to be at that time. So without more information, early 2027 we can call it a long-term trend for certain? Extending it back to 1995 or so like the first comment suggested would give us a few more upsets in the market to see more easily if this effect actually exists in this data. That said, their source is https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE so that data probably doesn't exist.
- dm03514 2y agoInteresting would love to learn more about their methodology. Like are they straight searching “software developer” on indeed? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE —- It’s rough out there, I see former coworkers laid off last year and the year before still struggling to find work
- SomeHacker44 2y agoDecline of job LISTINGS. This seems to have nothing to do with jobs whatsoever.
- butterlettuce 2y agoLots of college students will regret their CS degrees. And it's a shame because it's not an easy degree to get like, say, communications. Imagine all that hard work just to work at McDonalds.
- bagful 2y agoI don’t regret my math minor but that didn’t go on the paper diploma …
- qwerpy 2y agoI somewhat regret my math degree, which was in addition to my CSE degree. I didn't need to learn complex analysis or Galois theory. I've forgotten all of it. CS was rigorous enough for my 20 years working in software engineering. Instead, I should have done a study abroad semester or two. I will tell my kids my mistakes and recommend that they don't "put all their skill points into math/engineering/etc" in college.
- hbogert 2y agowhat should your kids do then? Do you mean it subtly as in, also do the debate team instead of extra classes of math? That's probably good advise I guess. However, if you mean they shouldn't choose engineering as a major: I don't regret my CS degree at all, even though i hated it at the time. The logic and scientific rigor helps me in the most practical things in every day to day things at work by being consciously analytic.
- qwerpy 2y agoThe former. Still get the degree they need for the career they want, but explore other subjects, extracurriculars, sports, exchange programs, etc. I focused almost entirely on "take the hardest CS and math classes" so that I'd have a better chance at a good job. Turns out I didn't need to do that. Could've gotten the same jobs but had a more enriching college experience.
- 2y ago
- rightbyte 2y agoHow about using absolute numbers instead of confusing percentages?
- beezlewax 2y agoYeh that graphic is useless
- Izkata 2y agoTheir source is absolute numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE ...but the graph is the same, isn't it? Did they just change the Y-axis without doing the math to get percent change?
- rvz 2y agoWhen you hear the AI folks screaming about "AGI" (Which is a scam), this is what they are really talking about. The problem is that there will be less jobs and it won't recover and nothing to replace those lost jobs. Not even "UBI", which is unsustainable at a larger scale and really doesn't work at all. Remember when the whole industry also was screaming about Jevon's paradox? Well, as AI gets more efficient, it benefits the LLM providers (not you) and creates more job-destroying AI (not more jobs). It enriches AI use-cases for companies that own LLMs or the systems that run them to keep you out of a job. Even if 1 job is available, a growing list of candidates per job to compete and will just continue to increase. You see, I hope you realized that the bullsh*t in AI, over-valuations and the the rapid race to zero are all factors that have not only caused this decline in SWE jobs, but will also cause a crash like it's the year 2000 + another AI winter. Right now we are in late 1999 and just need a new surprise to reset the industry. Likely to happen before 2030. So I'd prepare for that and you are 5 years early to do so before the "intelligence age" advances far into 2030, which is the dealine. [0] [0] https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2025/digest/ https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-repo...
- quickslowdown 2y agoI can't wait for the next AI winter. I've got my coat ready for when everyone realizes the hype train they've jumped on is headed straight off a cliff. For those looking to pester me with sealioning & strawmen arguments, I'm not interested. This is unsustainable and will come crashing down. If you have a retort locked & loaded, save it for 5-10 years & come back, we can discuss if this was another Silicon Valley snake oil frenzy or the real deal once every company overleveraged on AI has crashed & the rubble pile has stopped smoking.
- horns4lyfe 2y agoThis has nothing to do with AI, this is us letting capital benefit from the infrastructure our taxes pay for while sending the jobs that generate them to India. It’s short sighted bullshit, but hey, stock go up
- sunshine-o 2y agoToday: - I go to the supermarket: the screen calling the next customer at the register and running Windows 11 (sic) crash all the time, so chaos. - I can't make a bank transfer online because the transfer system is unavailable - I walk in my street: the lights are turned on during the day and turned off at night (and I usually don't even notice the government related stuff anymore, it is hopeless) I see computer related things in need of a serious fix everywhere, all the time. Most of those are "local" systems. But those companies won't recruit and empower anybody to fix it, because everybody got used to things not working. In the meanwhile, engineers are told there is no more jobs for them "because of AI". But it seems the AI they were sold can't figure out lights need to be turned on at night and not during the day...
- ehnto 2y agoI actually think this decline will have a positive impact on more local issues. Here is my reasoning: Software Developers (and I am one) are too expensive for most companies. This caused a brain drain into "Big Tech" which while a valuable bubble of technologists, is only a niche in the greater community. If software wages come down, more local, non-tech, smaller scale companies will be able to afford to have in house developers, and the world needs way more bespoke software to truly capitalize on the power of small software. I would rather see software developers be on par with your local machinist or trade specialist rather than a tool to upper-echelon companies in big tech.
- Fire-Dragon-DoL 2y agoSo one of the few profession that allows owning a home (not necessarily house) would be gone. I'm afraid I can't agree with that
- solardev 2y agoOften it's software developers that made homes unaffordable for everyone.
- 2y ago
- joeyagreco 2y agoCharted: The Decline of U.S. Software Developer Jobs after a recession Charted: The Rise of U.S. Software Developer Jobs up to a new peak Charted: The Decline of U.S. Software Developer Jobs from this peak
- 486sx33 2y agoIt’s not AI, the jobs are going to India and/or Vietnam
- spwa4 2y agoIn case anyone wonders why the peak was in 2022, which of course makes no sense if COVID really was the cause of a permanent decline. https://www.onlycfo.io/p/new-tax-rule-is-terrible-for-software https://www.onlycfo.io/p/new-tax-rule-is-terrible-for-softwa... TLDR: software jobs were tax free in the US until 2022, when congress who widely promised and were expected to repeal a Trump tax raise ... didn't. Now software engineers in the US are expensive for US companies and software engineers outside the US are 3x more expensive. This was financial engineering by Trump. Not by him personally of course, but by GOP "strategists" that lowered taxes on the extremely wealthy.
- billy99k 2y agoThis just confirms that companies over hired during the pandemic and are now cutting jobs back to those levels.
- black_13 2y ago[dead]
- bdangubic 2y agothe only way this article would have been better if it charted like 02/28/2021 through 03/11/2021 :)
- navaed01 2y agoAll I see here is the pandemic boom in hiring
- hbogert 2y agoyou have lies, damn lies, statistics, and zoomed in graphs.