4 ms·

I have one of those time-based number hardware fobs, with the 6-digit 7-segment LCD display, which I'd guess I'd actuated less than 100 times, yet on one such a

by neilv 2y ago

I have one of those time-based number hardware fobs, with the 6-digit 7-segment LCD display, which I'd guess I'd actuated less than 100 times, yet on one such actuation, it displayed 1-2-3-4-5-6. Maybe because the whole mode when using it is infosec, my snap first thought was about how this is highly unlikely and is someone messing with me. My next thought was to run to get a camera from the other room, regardless of whatever is going on. By the time I got back with a camera, and just barely missed photographing the display, I realized that someone compromising my airgapped self-contained hardware fob was even more unlikely than this number sequence coming up randomly within 100 actuations. And, like this article points out, there are many "unlikely" numbers that might come up, so the chance of any of them is not as unlikely as it would first seem until you thought about it.

cdelsolar 2y ago
I was driving my wife's car a few years ago when I managed to look down and see that the temperature was 55 degrees, and the odometer read 55,555. For a split second I couldn't believe my eyes; what are the chances?
- ipaddr 2y ago
  Based on NOAA weather data, a rough estimate for the probability of experiencing exactly 55°F at any given time in temperate U.S. cities is around 2-5% on average
- neilv 2y ago
  That this-can't-be-correct reaction can be useful in emergencies, if it gets your attention, and activates a mode in which you can focus and act decisively in an instant. I once was applying a spray-can anti-slip treatment to a bathroom floor, when I might've heard a whoosh, looked up, and had a thought (that I remembered afterwards as) "fire shouldn't be coming from that direction". From the adjacent room, there was this flash fire shooting across the floor at me. That got my attention, and activated an emergency mode, parts of which I had no recollection. I somehow leapt backwards up onto the tub edge in an instant. Then the floor was on fire and lapping at the walls of the small bathroom I was in. The next thing I knew, I'd leapt over the flame, into the next room, somehow gotten the fire extinguisher from inside a cabinet, and was putting out the fire. Which worked nicely. Then, I guess, as that mode was winding down, without really thinking about it, I put the exhausted fire extinguished back in its spot in the cabinet. As I went to call the fire department to check out that there were no lingering problems. (Turned out that the floor treatment application also emitted a highly flammable gas, which rolled across the floor, into the next room, until it hit the pilot light in an old nat-gas oven.) Now, if we had an adrenaline reaction every time we saw unlikely numbers, that would be a problem. But, however the cognitive scientists deconstruct it, I'm fond of having what I'll call a good emergency mode feature.
  - ezekg 2y ago
    > Now, if we had an adrenaline reaction every time we saw unlikely numbers, that would be a problem. I think there's a relatively new TV show about this, actually.
    - LoganDark 2y ago
      Wasn't this a plot point of the original Call of Duty: Black Ops as well? "The numbers Mason, what do they mean?"
ipaddr 2y ago
If you run the fob 100 times, the probability of seeing "123456" at least once is about 1% (1 in 100 chance). One person in every hundred
- KeplerBoy 2y ago
  It's not? There's a (1**6-1)/1**6 chance of not getting it on any given try, so there's a ~1/10**4 chance of getting it within 100 tries. So quite unlikely, but of course possible and bound to happen among millions of users.
  - sdwr 2y ago
    There are also other sequences arguably as noteworthy as 123456: - 111111 through 999999 - 102030, 112233, 124816, 112358 - 000001, 911911 - 696969, 666999, 600009, 069420 - the user's birth YYMMDD, DDMMYY, MMDDYY etc - the current DDMMYY etc
- neilv 2y ago
  I got 100 actuations has 1 chance in 10,000, which is unlikely, but not maybe not as unlikely as it seemed at first glance. 1 actuation has 1 chance in 1e6 1e2 actuations has 1e2 chances in 1e6 1e2 actuations has 1 chance in 1e4
Matumio 2y ago
The chance to get 123456 in 100 actuations is very unlikely, indeed. Would you have had the same reaction for 654321 or 777777 or 121212? If there are a hundred such patterns, the chance of getting any in 100 actuations is 1%!
- arcastroe 2y ago
  1 - (999899/999999)^100 = 0.00995 The math checks out.
charlieyu1 2y ago
Now I want a steins gate Nixie tube for 2FA

by neilv 2y ago

cdelsolar 2y ago

I was driving my wife's car a few years ago when I managed to look down and see that the temperature was 55 degrees, and the odometer read 55,555. For a split second I couldn't believe my eyes; what are the chances?

ipaddr 2y ago
Based on NOAA weather data, a rough estimate for the probability of experiencing exactly 55°F at any given time in temperate U.S. cities is around 2-5% on average
neilv 2y ago
That this-can't-be-correct reaction can be useful in emergencies, if it gets your attention, and activates a mode in which you can focus and act decisively in an instant. I once was applying a spray-can anti-slip treatment to a bathroom floor, when I might've heard a whoosh, looked up, and had a thought (that I remembered afterwards as) "fire shouldn't be coming from that direction". From the adjacent room, there was this flash fire shooting across the floor at me. That got my attention, and activated an emergency mode, parts of which I had no recollection. I somehow leapt backwards up onto the tub edge in an instant. Then the floor was on fire and lapping at the walls of the small bathroom I was in. The next thing I knew, I'd leapt over the flame, into the next room, somehow gotten the fire extinguisher from inside a cabinet, and was putting out the fire. Which worked nicely. Then, I guess, as that mode was winding down, without really thinking about it, I put the exhausted fire extinguished back in its spot in the cabinet. As I went to call the fire department to check out that there were no lingering problems. (Turned out that the floor treatment application also emitted a highly flammable gas, which rolled across the floor, into the next room, until it hit the pilot light in an old nat-gas oven.) Now, if we had an adrenaline reaction every time we saw unlikely numbers, that would be a problem. But, however the cognitive scientists deconstruct it, I'm fond of having what I'll call a good emergency mode feature.
- ezekg 2y ago
  > Now, if we had an adrenaline reaction every time we saw unlikely numbers, that would be a problem. I think there's a relatively new TV show about this, actually.
  - LoganDark 2y ago
    Wasn't this a plot point of the original Call of Duty: Black Ops as well? "The numbers Mason, what do they mean?"

ipaddr 2y ago

If you run the fob 100 times, the probability of seeing "123456" at least once is about 1% (1 in 100 chance). One person in every hundred

KeplerBoy 2y ago
It's not? There's a (1**6-1)/1**6 chance of not getting it on any given try, so there's a ~1/10**4 chance of getting it within 100 tries. So quite unlikely, but of course possible and bound to happen among millions of users.
- sdwr 2y ago
  There are also other sequences arguably as noteworthy as 123456: - 111111 through 999999 - 102030, 112233, 124816, 112358 - 000001, 911911 - 696969, 666999, 600009, 069420 - the user's birth YYMMDD, DDMMYY, MMDDYY etc - the current DDMMYY etc
neilv 2y ago
I got 100 actuations has 1 chance in 10,000, which is unlikely, but not maybe not as unlikely as it seemed at first glance. 1 actuation has 1 chance in 1e6 1e2 actuations has 1e2 chances in 1e6 1e2 actuations has 1 chance in 1e4

Matumio 2y ago

The chance to get 123456 in 100 actuations is very unlikely, indeed. Would you have had the same reaction for 654321 or 777777 or 121212? If there are a hundred such patterns, the chance of getting any in 100 actuations is 1%!

arcastroe 2y ago
1 - (999899/999999)^100 = 0.00995 The math checks out.

charlieyu1 2y ago

Now I want a steins gate Nixie tube for 2FA