5 ms·
It's commonly said Presidents get 100 days in office to enact the bulk of their platform. It's an approximation, of course, but it's about then that the new-to-
by mattmaroon 2y ago
It's commonly said Presidents get 100 days in office to enact the bulk of their platform. It's an approximation, of course, but it's about then that the new-to-office approval rating bump starts to wane and Congress starts gearing up for midterms. We're about half way there.
If the economy is in bad shape in May, I would not be surprised if Congress intervenes on tariffs. The fear of being primaried by MAGA loyalists will become smaller than the fear of losing to the other party very rapidly if a tariff-induced bad economy is the result.
The constitution gives Congress the power, but they've delegated it to the President, which means they can take it back. They will if losing elections seems likely.
- jrs235 2y agoI wish I had your optimism. Too many Republicans lack a spine and likely think their best chance of survival is actually to do nothing.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> If the economy is in bad shape in May Would note that we’re still only seeing leading indicators and forecasts crash. Even real GDP can be dismissed as a calculation. Job losses, on the other hand, will be obvious corpses. Unfortunately, those might take until the fall to pile up.
- SlightlyLeftPad 2y agoIt should be clear now that the GOP has nearly total and absolute control over the MAGA base, meaning they will take whatever spin they’ve been given by the party. In other words, the GOP can do whatever it wants or nothing at all and it will get little pushback from their voters. That’s a pretty powerful position to be in as a party.
- bryanlarsen 2y agoThey get little pushback from ~95% of their voters. However, the last 5% of their voters are center/center-right voters, and it's those voters that flipped the election from Biden/Harris to Trump and are presumably willing to flip back.
- sanktanglia 2y agoYou think sebete republicans are going to have a spine? Boy do you have wayyy more faith in them than they deserve.
- insane_dreamer 2y ago> Congress intervenes on tariffs the tariffs on Canada/Mexico haven't gone into effect yet and Trump may yet again change his mind or end up keeping it restricted to a few select industries (i.e. steel) who are clamoring for it (my guess is the latter) As for China, I think many in Congress from both parties are supportive of them, so I would expect those to stay
- bryanlarsen 2y agoThey certainly have gone into effect. They've been paused on USMCA covered goods, but that's only 1/3rd of the goods from Canada and 1/2 from Mexico.
- insane_dreamer 2y ago> 1/2 from Mexico. That's what the WH said. But the Mexican president said that nearly all Mexican exports to US were covered under the USMCA.
- seanmcdirmid 2y agoTrump crossed the threshold from being more unpopular than popular this week. If history is any guide, he won't recover from that during his term https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker
- johnnyanmac 2y agoCongress already made their bed with the cuts to medaid in order to fund capital tax cuts. I wouldn't be surprised if Florida completely flips next month unless the senators wake up.
- ModernMech 2y agoYou're framing this as an incentive for them to moderate their positions, but I'm reading it as a motive for them to rig elections.
- mattmaroon 2y agoI don't think either party ever didn't have that incentive. If elections could feasibly be rigged then they already are I'm sure.