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I suspect it is going to be done to them. It seems to me Donald is beheld in some way to Vladimir; what's being done now to my eye is too specifically about se

I suspect it is going to be done to them. It seems to me Donald is beheld in some way to Vladimir; what's being done now to my eye is too specifically about setting up UA for second RU invasion. Donald then I think, step by step, is going to ally with Vladimir. 1. US aid to UA stops (done). 2. USA leaves NATO (on the way). 3. US troops in Europe leave or move to Hungary (floated). 4. Hungary is ejected from EU due to Orban obstructing everything he can. 5. Hungary becomes RU satellite state (maybe with many tens of thousand of US troops). 6. USA lifts its sanctions, placing it directly in conflict with Europe. 7. Donald invokes Insurrection Act, military units can now be used for civil policing (this is why top military brass and specifically top military lawyers removed). 8. Europe puts boots on ground and air cover over UA. 9. To "encourage peace", Donald now disables support for US weapon systems being used by Europe in UA. At this point, F-35 is history whether or not EU has dropped them or not. 10. Protests in USA, military used, people die, Donald suspends Constitution "to restore order and combat subversive elements". 11. No more elections. All court cases underway made irrelevant.

geetee 2y ago
Or it doesn't happen like that
- scrollaway 2y ago
  Anyone with a working memory of a couple of years remembers people like you who said a variety of excuses to the tune of "it won't be that bad", "you're exaggerating" and "it won't happen like that". Of course, all of them were wrong. Short of WW3 between Europe and the US, many awful things that were predicted have come true. DT has severely weakened the USA, weakened the stock market, damaged US reputation and trust in the US army, dismantled many departments, put useless shills in most important positions, pulled out of Ukraine, stopped aid to Ukraine, sucked up to Putin, and turned it all into a country that most people in Europe consider a hostile enemy (myself included). So. For the sake of your fellow citizens, quit the excuses.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - whatshisface 2y ago
    The result, and perhaps the definition, of the polarization problem is that every time something terrible happens, the responsible side would rather say "I love suffering, this feels great" than lose face in an imagined argument with the other side.
- casenmgreen 2y ago
  How do you think it will play out?
pmontra 2y ago
> 8. Europe puts boots on ground and air cover over UA. Given the size and battle experience of their armies I think that it's more probable that it's Ukraine that will cover Europe and not viceversa. And if they'll have to flee their country add a 12th point the UA army takes sanctuary in the EU that goes the way of Lebanon in the 70s when another army had to flee there.
- casenmgreen 2y ago
  Yes. Right now it's the EU which needs UA, and EU knows it; EU military is weak and has no idea how to fight with drones. UA military is strong and knows how to fight with drones. If UA goes down, then EU goes down, because RU will attack before EU is ready. This is why I think we see EU direct involvement in UA fighting; needed to keep UA up, and needed to get up to speed with drones.
  - mft_ 2y ago
    > If UA goes down, then EU goes down, because RU will attack before EU is ready. Do you have any numbers or analysis to back this up, please? A few counterpoints: - Russia failed to 'take' a relatively unprepared Ukraine, and arguably has only managed the gains it has made because the support (from Biden US and EU) was drip-fed according to the Biden team's strategy. - Russia is haemorraging fighters and modern fighting machinery in the current war in Ukraine. It's unknown how much longer the loss of life can be sustained without internal unrest. The absence of modern machinery would obviously make an invasion of Europe less likely to succeed. - While Russia might now be a "war economy" I've seen reports that they can't economically sustain the war for too much longer. - While the EU certainty needs to invest in defence, some countries are already strong, and would likely fight to protect the collective. Overall, this suggests that Russia would fail against a united Europe, were they to extend beyond a defeated Ukraine.
    - rurp 2y ago
      While Russia certainly botched the invasion they probably would have taken all of Ukraine by now without so much western support. Ukraine would of course be in a much better position now if that support had been stronger and not been dribbled in. Russia's economy is teetering and looks very weak now, but much of that is due to sanctions. Sanctions that trump will probably remove soon, for zero concessions. I'm not sure how effective EU sanctions will be on their own. Soon we will be seeing a much stronger Russia, already on a heavy war footing, start swallowing up a much weaker Ukraine. I don't like what might happen after that plays out.
throawayonthe 2y ago
[dead]
Gregaros 2y ago
Read something of a similar bent here https://theradicalfederalist.substack.com/p/the-regimes-next-phase-the-fiscal https://theradicalfederalist.substack.com/p/the-regimes-next... Any suggestions on where in the world will remain relatively stable?
- casenmgreen 2y ago
  South America. Was peaceful in WW1 and WW2. In US sphere, but far enough away not to be messed about with much. I will be going to UA, to fight with them.
Juliate 2y ago
Not American, but provided US military has an oath towards the Constitution (and not to whatever the government claims), I doubt _all_ of US army would follow (either internally, either externally) such a brutal reversal of duty as well as alliances.
- casenmgreen 2y ago
  I am reminded of North Africa in I think it was 1942. France over-run by Germany. Gestapo at work, with all its horrors. UK+US land in French North Africa, part of taking Africa from Germany, part in the long run of liberating France from horrors of occupation. French soldiers fighting, killing and being killed by UK+US troops.
  - Juliate 2y ago
    You mean the _Vichy_ French soldiers? that's quite a different situation than the allied French army :) And, I was more thinking of the situation on American ground, within the USA and between the USA and Canada. I don't mean it wouldn't happen. I mean that I don't think that would happen with 100% engagement from all US army. The disconnect and reversal of strategy of the US, against its own allies, is too sudden.
    - casenmgreen 2y ago
      They were French army, just as any other, only the part which was in North Africa when France fell. My thought here was that armies can fight with the most brutal oppressors of their very own country, against those who would liberate it.
- ExoticPearTree 2y ago
  Duty is to the Constitution and the Commander in Chief. And alliances are at the discretion of the President. The military will do whatever they are told in terms of who the have to be friends with.
  - 2y ago
impossiblefork 2y ago
The solution should probably be to go in and fight Russia immediately. I think it's foolish to restrict operations to Ukraine though, and feel that the size of Russia is one of its main weaknesses. If there's to be a war, it should involve incursions into the US proper.

geetee 2y ago

Or it doesn't happen like that

scrollaway 2y ago
Anyone with a working memory of a couple of years remembers people like you who said a variety of excuses to the tune of "it won't be that bad", "you're exaggerating" and "it won't happen like that". Of course, all of them were wrong. Short of WW3 between Europe and the US, many awful things that were predicted have come true. DT has severely weakened the USA, weakened the stock market, damaged US reputation and trust in the US army, dismantled many departments, put useless shills in most important positions, pulled out of Ukraine, stopped aid to Ukraine, sucked up to Putin, and turned it all into a country that most people in Europe consider a hostile enemy (myself included). So. For the sake of your fellow citizens, quit the excuses.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- whatshisface 2y ago
  The result, and perhaps the definition, of the polarization problem is that every time something terrible happens, the responsible side would rather say "I love suffering, this feels great" than lose face in an imagined argument with the other side.
casenmgreen 2y ago
How do you think it will play out?

pmontra 2y ago

> 8. Europe puts boots on ground and air cover over UA. Given the size and battle experience of their armies I think that it's more probable that it's Ukraine that will cover Europe and not viceversa. And if they'll have to flee their country add a 12th point the UA army takes sanctuary in the EU that goes the way of Lebanon in the 70s when another army had to flee there.

casenmgreen 2y ago
Yes. Right now it's the EU which needs UA, and EU knows it; EU military is weak and has no idea how to fight with drones. UA military is strong and knows how to fight with drones. If UA goes down, then EU goes down, because RU will attack before EU is ready. This is why I think we see EU direct involvement in UA fighting; needed to keep UA up, and needed to get up to speed with drones.
- mft_ 2y ago
  > If UA goes down, then EU goes down, because RU will attack before EU is ready. Do you have any numbers or analysis to back this up, please? A few counterpoints: - Russia failed to 'take' a relatively unprepared Ukraine, and arguably has only managed the gains it has made because the support (from Biden US and EU) was drip-fed according to the Biden team's strategy. - Russia is haemorraging fighters and modern fighting machinery in the current war in Ukraine. It's unknown how much longer the loss of life can be sustained without internal unrest. The absence of modern machinery would obviously make an invasion of Europe less likely to succeed. - While Russia might now be a "war economy" I've seen reports that they can't economically sustain the war for too much longer. - While the EU certainty needs to invest in defence, some countries are already strong, and would likely fight to protect the collective. Overall, this suggests that Russia would fail against a united Europe, were they to extend beyond a defeated Ukraine.
  - rurp 2y ago
    While Russia certainly botched the invasion they probably would have taken all of Ukraine by now without so much western support. Ukraine would of course be in a much better position now if that support had been stronger and not been dribbled in. Russia's economy is teetering and looks very weak now, but much of that is due to sanctions. Sanctions that trump will probably remove soon, for zero concessions. I'm not sure how effective EU sanctions will be on their own. Soon we will be seeing a much stronger Russia, already on a heavy war footing, start swallowing up a much weaker Ukraine. I don't like what might happen after that plays out.

throawayonthe 2y ago

[dead]

Gregaros 2y ago

Read something of a similar bent here https://theradicalfederalist.substack.com/p/the-regimes-next-phase-the-fiscal https://theradicalfederalist.substack.com/p/the-regimes-next... Any suggestions on where in the world will remain relatively stable?

casenmgreen 2y ago
South America. Was peaceful in WW1 and WW2. In US sphere, but far enough away not to be messed about with much. I will be going to UA, to fight with them.

Juliate 2y ago

Not American, but provided US military has an oath towards the Constitution (and not to whatever the government claims), I doubt _all_ of US army would follow (either internally, either externally) such a brutal reversal of duty as well as alliances.

casenmgreen 2y ago
I am reminded of North Africa in I think it was 1942. France over-run by Germany. Gestapo at work, with all its horrors. UK+US land in French North Africa, part of taking Africa from Germany, part in the long run of liberating France from horrors of occupation. French soldiers fighting, killing and being killed by UK+US troops.
- Juliate 2y ago
  You mean the _Vichy_ French soldiers? that's quite a different situation than the allied French army :) And, I was more thinking of the situation on American ground, within the USA and between the USA and Canada. I don't mean it wouldn't happen. I mean that I don't think that would happen with 100% engagement from all US army. The disconnect and reversal of strategy of the US, against its own allies, is too sudden.
  - casenmgreen 2y ago
    They were French army, just as any other, only the part which was in North Africa when France fell. My thought here was that armies can fight with the most brutal oppressors of their very own country, against those who would liberate it.
ExoticPearTree 2y ago
Duty is to the Constitution and the Commander in Chief. And alliances are at the discretion of the President. The military will do whatever they are told in terms of who the have to be friends with.
- 2y ago

impossiblefork 2y ago

The solution should probably be to go in and fight Russia immediately. I think it's foolish to restrict operations to Ukraine though, and feel that the size of Russia is one of its main weaknesses. If there's to be a war, it should involve incursions into the US proper.