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There's certainly an AI valuation bubble. It's starting to look like AI isn't going to be expensive, and that everybody can do it. So the startups with a P/E ra

There's certainly an AI valuation bubble. It's starting to look like AI isn't going to be expensive, and that everybody can do it. So the startups with a P/E ratio over 10-20 are going to get a haircut. That includes OpenAI and Tesla. Even if Tesla can get self-driving to work, that's still just part of the low-margin auto industry. There's Trump's "Stargate" consortium.[1] Don't want to go there. We will see more routine use of AI. But it's still not good enough to use where you can't offload the externality costs of errors onto someone else. Customer service being the classic example of where you can. There are probably two decades of wrenching change ahead as the world adjusts to a weaker US, a stronger Russia, and a much more dominant China. That may slow down civilian tech adoption. The next big growth area is probably low-cost killbots in high volume. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/22/kelly-evans-what-on-earth-is-stargate.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/22/kelly-evans-what-on-earth-is...

theyknowitsxmas 2y ago
Don't forget heated mannequins... with killbots come decoys!
xg15 2y ago
I guess, my bet would be VR then (third time's the charm!), of the matrix/neuromancer/etc "get a brain implant, plug in and forget the outside world" kind, with a focus on people living in VR for sustained periods of time. Technology-wise, we seem to be making steps of getting there, a large part of the population seem to be "living" in virtual worlds anyway (through their phones) - and my hunch is that if the world will become progressively nasty due to wars, pandemics, climate change and massive social inequality with no hope of change, there will be growing demand to just to be able to escape all of it and try a better life "somewhere else". The companion technology might be neuromancer-style "surrogate bodies", where instead of "plugging into" a virtual world, you remote-control a robot in the real world. Want to stay in the real world, but retain the ability to choose whatever body you like? Want to have an insurance against a sudden case of rocket attacks? Want to keep it cool even with 50°C/80% humidity outside? No problem, just transfer your mind to a robot body of your choosing!
42772827 2y ago
>a stronger Russia Russia is in its death throes. The invasion of Ukraine was inevitable since it needs to expand outward to remain demographically solvent, which it cannot in the long run even with Ukraine. [0] [0]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/Russia_Population_Pyramid.svg/1920px-Russia_Population_Pyramid.svg.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/Ru...
- Animats 2y ago
  The entire developed world is in population decline. It's not just Russia. South Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong are far worse off.
  - 42772827 2y ago
    South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong didn’t recently throw what little proportion of their 20 something men who didn’t flee the country into a meat grinder operated by middle aged alcoholics.
  - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
    Asia is ahead in automation investments, Russia is stuck with a persistent natural resources curse. It is hard to see them breaking out of that curse anytime soon, especially with the leadership they have. Demographic decline isn’t going to be much of a problem if AI and robotics keep advancing at their current rates, as long as those investments are made (like as China is doing now).

theyknowitsxmas 2y ago

Don't forget heated mannequins... with killbots come decoys!

xg15 2y ago

I guess, my bet would be VR then (third time's the charm!), of the matrix/neuromancer/etc "get a brain implant, plug in and forget the outside world" kind, with a focus on people living in VR for sustained periods of time. Technology-wise, we seem to be making steps of getting there, a large part of the population seem to be "living" in virtual worlds anyway (through their phones) - and my hunch is that if the world will become progressively nasty due to wars, pandemics, climate change and massive social inequality with no hope of change, there will be growing demand to just to be able to escape all of it and try a better life "somewhere else". The companion technology might be neuromancer-style "surrogate bodies", where instead of "plugging into" a virtual world, you remote-control a robot in the real world. Want to stay in the real world, but retain the ability to choose whatever body you like? Want to have an insurance against a sudden case of rocket attacks? Want to keep it cool even with 50°C/80% humidity outside? No problem, just transfer your mind to a robot body of your choosing!

42772827 2y ago

>a stronger Russia Russia is in its death throes. The invasion of Ukraine was inevitable since it needs to expand outward to remain demographically solvent, which it cannot in the long run even with Ukraine. [0] [0]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/Russia_Population_Pyramid.svg/1920px-Russia_Population_Pyramid.svg.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/Ru...

Animats 2y ago
The entire developed world is in population decline. It's not just Russia. South Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong are far worse off.
- 42772827 2y ago
  South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong didn’t recently throw what little proportion of their 20 something men who didn’t flee the country into a meat grinder operated by middle aged alcoholics.
- seanmcdirmid 2y ago
  Asia is ahead in automation investments, Russia is stuck with a persistent natural resources curse. It is hard to see them breaking out of that curse anytime soon, especially with the leadership they have. Demographic decline isn’t going to be much of a problem if AI and robotics keep advancing at their current rates, as long as those investments are made (like as China is doing now).