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Some of these mega-evaluations make me nervous. Maybe I'm overly bearish but I don't think Anthropic is that likely to generate enough revenue for this, particu

Some of these mega-evaluations make me nervous. Maybe I'm overly bearish but I don't think Anthropic is that likely to generate enough revenue for this, particularly in a world with so many, often free, competitors. Assuming I'm right, I'm not really looking forward to a point in 5 years when shareholders all suddenly decide they agree.

throwaway743950 2y ago
> when shareholders all suddenly decide they agree Sorry, what are you saying happens at that point?
- benrutter 2y ago
  I'm thinking a market correction, like when the dotcom bubble burst and a lot of value disapeared from the stock market overnight. This is really not a good thing, and almost definitely would affect the IT industry as a whole.
nradov 2y ago
Why would you be nervous? If valuations collapse then what practical impact would that have? Are you a shareholder?
- paxys 2y ago
  At this point the AI bubble is very tightly linked with the tech industry and the overall US economy. If/when it bursts we are all going to be affected, whether we are directly invested into it or not.
- ncallaway 2y ago
  When the dotcom bubble burst, it affected far more people than just the shareholders and employees of those specific companies. The economy is interlinked, and a bubble bursting hurts many people. Part of it is realizing the pains of inefficient allocation of capital. A bubble "bursting" is often an indicator that the capital in within that bubble had been previously misallocated. So the broader pain when the bubble bursts, is partly society and the markets suddenly discovering that the $3.5B probably could've been put to better, more productive uses.
- benrutter 2y ago
  A few other comments have already said this, but I was thinking that a "bubble burst" or "market correction" would really not be a good thing for the IT sector. It'd directly cause a bunch of unemployment, and additional spook investment out of other areas.
  - nradov 2y ago
    The investments just move on to the next hot area. It would be a temporary disruption at most.
bhelkey 2y ago
> Assuming I'm right, I'm not really looking forward to a point in 5 years when shareholders all suddenly decide they agree. Assuming everyone agrees Anthropic is worth very little, they still get to keep the 3.5 Billion investment. I imagine the consequence would be: 1) Anthropic investors lose a lot of money. 2) Anthropic probably struggles to raise more money 3) Anthropic raises their prices to become profitable.

throwaway743950 2y ago

> when shareholders all suddenly decide they agree Sorry, what are you saying happens at that point?

benrutter 2y ago
I'm thinking a market correction, like when the dotcom bubble burst and a lot of value disapeared from the stock market overnight. This is really not a good thing, and almost definitely would affect the IT industry as a whole.

nradov 2y ago

Why would you be nervous? If valuations collapse then what practical impact would that have? Are you a shareholder?

paxys 2y ago
At this point the AI bubble is very tightly linked with the tech industry and the overall US economy. If/when it bursts we are all going to be affected, whether we are directly invested into it or not.
ncallaway 2y ago
When the dotcom bubble burst, it affected far more people than just the shareholders and employees of those specific companies. The economy is interlinked, and a bubble bursting hurts many people. Part of it is realizing the pains of inefficient allocation of capital. A bubble "bursting" is often an indicator that the capital in within that bubble had been previously misallocated. So the broader pain when the bubble bursts, is partly society and the markets suddenly discovering that the $3.5B probably could've been put to better, more productive uses.
benrutter 2y ago
A few other comments have already said this, but I was thinking that a "bubble burst" or "market correction" would really not be a good thing for the IT sector. It'd directly cause a bunch of unemployment, and additional spook investment out of other areas.
- nradov 2y ago
  The investments just move on to the next hot area. It would be a temporary disruption at most.

bhelkey 2y ago

> Assuming I'm right, I'm not really looking forward to a point in 5 years when shareholders all suddenly decide they agree. Assuming everyone agrees Anthropic is worth very little, they still get to keep the 3.5 Billion investment. I imagine the consequence would be: 1) Anthropic investors lose a lot of money. 2) Anthropic probably struggles to raise more money 3) Anthropic raises their prices to become profitable.