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The speed at which EU defense integration precedes is dizzying. In only: - one month after the US openly said it won't be the primary security guarantor of Eur
by LAC-Tech 2y ago
The speed at which EU defense integration precedes is dizzying. In only:
- one month after the US openly said it won't be the primary security guarantor of Europe
- a month and a half after the second inauguration of a NATO sceptical president
- three years after the start of a major european land war bordering the EU
- 14 years after another US administration formally announced it's "Pivot to Asia"
... a European country has announced it's "open to discussion" about extending its nuclear umbrella. Not that it's offering the umbrella. Not that it has discussed offering the umbrella. But that it's open to start those discussions.
- Ancalagon 2y agoTbf, nuclear proliferation really sucks for a number of reasons, and shifting priorities in democratically elected non-authoritarian regimes with checks and balances typically means pushing such an unpopular policy forward is going to take a while.
- erentz 2y agoI really think too many people inside America do not properly understand how much the world now thinks it’s at risk from the US. The world sees what has happened as us turning into an autocracy that is now adversarial to democratic countries. Words are actions in politics. They aren’t jokes or memes. We are threatening our neighbors. And for actions we have flipped on Ukraine and now withdrawn all aid, including intelligence, and just reported turned off their ability to target with GMLRS. We have even turned off our cybersecurity activities as it relates to Russia. Writing is very clear to people outside the US.
- LAC-Tech 2y agoI think you might have meant to respond to another comment.
- palata 2y agoTo say it bluntly, everybody hates the US right now. I think that too many people inside the US do not really understand that.
- iteratethis 2y agoA few days ago the press secretary of the White House closed the session by commenting on a hockey game to be played that night between the US and "our soon-to-be 51st state", whilst grinning. A declaration of war packaged as a prank.
- robwwilliams 2y agoYep, ridiculously slow to reach the melting temperature on decision making. But the transition could now be quick.
- LAC-Tech 2y agoYou know the more I think about it, the more I consider that even without US support, their primary adversary has already demonstrated their impotence as an offensive military power. Maybe they simply don't need to do much more than they're already doing.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> their primary adversary has already demonstrated their impotence …the call is coming from inside the house. Europe’s existential risk has shifted from Russia to a Russo-American alliance.
- LAC-Tech 2y agoA slight thawing of relations is a long way away from an alliance. Even then, would Russia take it? They might see more value in their current arrangement with China. Still, long term maybe you're right. It does make geopolitical sense for the US to be more closely aligned with Russia. In a pivot to Asia it's much more useful to sow-discord in the Sino-Russian relationship, than it is to prop up the EU.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> It does make geopolitical sense for the US to be more closely aligned with Russia. In a pivot to Asia it's much more useful to sow-discord in the Sino-Russian relationship, than it is to prop up the EU The EU have been loyal allies. Their defence production is also nothing to be sneezed at. If we found ourselves in a war of attrition with China and either Japan or Korea stood neutral, an America with Europe has a much higher chance of succeeding than an America alone. And if we surrender to Xi the way Trump has to Putin, that puts the American homeland at direct risk in the next conflict from both sides. This entire enterprise comes down to some Silicon Valley types not liking the EU. It's personal and irrational and unfortunately, with Trump an ersatz monarch for two years, an example of why extreme power concentration sacrifices the immortal goals of a nation for the personal whims of a mortal leader.
- SpicyLemonZest 2y agoMacron has been advocating for tighter European collaboration for years, insisting that there should be an integrated European army in 2018 and calling NATO "brain-dead" in 2019. The question is whether other European countries want to be integrated, and thus far the answer has been that they do not.
- p2detar 2y agoThis is what people outside of Europe do not understand. We are not one country. We are 27 sovereign countries with their own parliament and their own final decisions that must coin a common European policy. This is an immense effort.
- palata 2y agoIt makes it slow, but it also means that the EU cannot turn authoritarian with one election, like the US did.
- surgical_fire 2y agoI think this is rapidly changing, now that the US is essentially a hostile foreign nation.
- SpicyLemonZest 2y agoEven if you grant that perception of the US (which UK at least has explicitly stated it doesn't agree with), it doesn't resolve the practical obstacles where different member states don't necessarily agree on military action. One good example came up just today; France and the UK want to deploy peacekeeping troops to Ukraine to enforce a ceasefire, but Italy does not. In a unified European military, does Italy get a veto, or does the command structure somehow require Italian divisions to deploy somewhere the Italian government doesn't want them to go?
- surgical_fire 2y agoWell, the UK does not belong to the EU. So it really doesn't matter in this conversation all that much. As for the EU, I imagine it will eventually create more integration tiers above the ones that currently exist. If I am not terribly mistaken Macron advocates for such a thing. Not a bad idea to be frank.
- aaronbrethorst 2y agoI suspect EU leaders started drawing up plans in 2017, and dusted them off in November.