3 ms·

Note: ADP numbers, not official data. Edit: Not sure what’s up with the downvotes. ADP is a private payroll management and hiring company. So they do have a go

Note: ADP numbers, not official data. Edit: Not sure what’s up with the downvotes. ADP is a private payroll management and hiring company. So they do have a good view into that sector of the labor market. But not all employers use them, and they don’t include government and other types of employment. The Non-Farm Payrolls number due on Friday from the BLS is what actually matters. ADP is intentionally fronting the BLS to position themselves as some sort of reliable data source.

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago
FWIW, ADP numbers are based on actual payrolls, while official data is a survey..
Someone1234 2y ago
ADP is only private jobs, whereas BLS is also government, which has had job losses. If anything this MAY paint a misleadingly positive overall picture. I guess we'll know here soon.
- angry_moose 2y ago
  Most of the federal losses likely won't show up in the report this week as they were after the reporting window (Feb 15th or something like that?). The April one is likely where it's really going to show up.
  - avidphantasm 2y ago
    Assuming we have anything close to reliable data coming out of BLS going forward.
    - readthenotes1 2y ago
      That's a hilarious comment given the complaints about the BLS reports the last 4 years. look up BLS versus household survey and maybe you can see some of the hand wringing...
kasey_junk 2y ago
When I was trading both numbers were important indicators. And ADP is definitely a reliable source. For the foreseeable future ADP will be very important because it isolates on private jobs which will help to compare to the federal government firings and the fallout from that.
oinkbutton 2y ago
[dead]
- alistairSH 2y ago
  I don't believe he was implying anything about either set of data, only pointing out that this is the ADP data and the BLS data should be released shortly. But, I'm with you, there is little reason to trust any official government numbers right now. I don't know how much DOGE has infiltrated BLS, but I'm not giving them the benefit of the doubt given what's happened across other agencies.
financetechbro 2y ago
ADP has been a data source relied on by the street for years

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago

FWIW, ADP numbers are based on actual payrolls, while official data is a survey..

Someone1234 2y ago

ADP is only private jobs, whereas BLS is also government, which has had job losses. If anything this MAY paint a misleadingly positive overall picture. I guess we'll know here soon.

angry_moose 2y ago
Most of the federal losses likely won't show up in the report this week as they were after the reporting window (Feb 15th or something like that?). The April one is likely where it's really going to show up.
- avidphantasm 2y ago
  Assuming we have anything close to reliable data coming out of BLS going forward.
  - readthenotes1 2y ago
    That's a hilarious comment given the complaints about the BLS reports the last 4 years. look up BLS versus household survey and maybe you can see some of the hand wringing...

kasey_junk 2y ago

When I was trading both numbers were important indicators. And ADP is definitely a reliable source. For the foreseeable future ADP will be very important because it isolates on private jobs which will help to compare to the federal government firings and the fallout from that.

oinkbutton 2y ago

[dead]

alistairSH 2y ago
I don't believe he was implying anything about either set of data, only pointing out that this is the ADP data and the BLS data should be released shortly. But, I'm with you, there is little reason to trust any official government numbers right now. I don't know how much DOGE has infiltrated BLS, but I'm not giving them the benefit of the doubt given what's happened across other agencies.

financetechbro 2y ago

ADP has been a data source relied on by the street for years