I wouldn't be surprised if we stretch it further than 46 years. All previous estimates have been under-estimates. Still, it's a bit like stock market bubbles. D

I wouldn't be surprised if we stretch it further than 46 years. All previous estimates have been under-estimates. Still, it's a bit like stock market bubbles. During a bubble bears are wrong many times and right once. Your estimate for coal is probably low, unfortunately. There are vast amounts of it in places like Alaska and Siberia and elsewhere in the Arctic, maybe Antarctica too if that melts enough. We probably have enough carbon to destroy the world if we really don't give a damn and decide we don't want Florida. We have quite a lot of gas, too, which is not nearly as bad as coal for climate change but isn't great if we keep using it forever and at huge scale. The bottom line is that transition to electrified everything powered by solar, wind, hydro, nuclear (maybe fusion too eventually), and geothermal, is inevitable. The question is the timetable. Oil will be the first fossil fuel to go. It's already many times more expensive per kWh as a source of energy due to the difficult of substituting it for internal combustion engines and aviation.