3 ms·

Not just global warming but eventually oil depletion. Fracking has given the oil industry a stay of execution but it will work until it doesn’t and the cheapest

by api 2y ago

Not just global warming but eventually oil depletion. Fracking has given the oil industry a stay of execution but it will work until it doesn’t and the cheapest stuff is exhausted, just like conventional drilling. We know how to build good EVs now, which means the result of this will be a lot less catastrophic than twenty or thirty years ago. We are lucky the peak oilers back then underestimated.

panstromek 2y ago
Yes, I don't think many people realize this but we have like ~46 years of oil left in total. That's not very much. It will just keep getting more expensive. Even if we keep burning coal for electricity, we still have 140 years of that left, so it's just a matter of relatively short time until the optimum flips in favor of electric.
- api 2y ago
  I wouldn't be surprised if we stretch it further than 46 years. All previous estimates have been under-estimates. Still, it's a bit like stock market bubbles. During a bubble bears are wrong many times and right once. Your estimate for coal is probably low, unfortunately. There are vast amounts of it in places like Alaska and Siberia and elsewhere in the Arctic, maybe Antarctica too if that melts enough. We probably have enough carbon to destroy the world if we really don't give a damn and decide we don't want Florida. We have quite a lot of gas, too, which is not nearly as bad as coal for climate change but isn't great if we keep using it forever and at huge scale. The bottom line is that transition to electrified everything powered by solar, wind, hydro, nuclear (maybe fusion too eventually), and geothermal, is inevitable. The question is the timetable. Oil will be the first fossil fuel to go. It's already many times more expensive per kWh as a source of energy due to the difficult of substituting it for internal combustion engines and aviation.
- Ray20 2y ago
  >I don't think many people realize this but we have like ~46 years of oil left in total. My parents remember reading those in 70's
  - panstromek 2y ago
    I can't tell whether you're trying to make an argument with this comment or what's the reason for pointing that out.
    - xboxnolifes 2y ago
      The point is peak oil as a concept has existed for a long time, and we have extended way past its deadline before. It relies on not having technological advancement for accessing more oil.
      - NoGravitas 2y ago
        Not exactly: it relies on future sources of oil (unconventional oil) having lower EROI (Energy return on investment) than historical oil reserves (conventional oil). Technological advancements could conceivably increase the EROI of some unconventional sources, but they mainly seem to make new lower EROI sources available.
      - panstromek 2y ago
        Sure but that's not really argument for anything, it's just hopium. Oil is a finite resource, it will run out. Just because some breakthrough shift the timelines doesn't mean that the analysis isn't sound. There's no guarantee that another breakthrough is always coming.

by api 2y ago

panstromek 2y ago

Yes, I don't think many people realize this but we have like ~46 years of oil left in total. That's not very much. It will just keep getting more expensive. Even if we keep burning coal for electricity, we still have 140 years of that left, so it's just a matter of relatively short time until the optimum flips in favor of electric.

api 2y ago
I wouldn't be surprised if we stretch it further than 46 years. All previous estimates have been under-estimates. Still, it's a bit like stock market bubbles. During a bubble bears are wrong many times and right once. Your estimate for coal is probably low, unfortunately. There are vast amounts of it in places like Alaska and Siberia and elsewhere in the Arctic, maybe Antarctica too if that melts enough. We probably have enough carbon to destroy the world if we really don't give a damn and decide we don't want Florida. We have quite a lot of gas, too, which is not nearly as bad as coal for climate change but isn't great if we keep using it forever and at huge scale. The bottom line is that transition to electrified everything powered by solar, wind, hydro, nuclear (maybe fusion too eventually), and geothermal, is inevitable. The question is the timetable. Oil will be the first fossil fuel to go. It's already many times more expensive per kWh as a source of energy due to the difficult of substituting it for internal combustion engines and aviation.
Ray20 2y ago
>I don't think many people realize this but we have like ~46 years of oil left in total. My parents remember reading those in 70's
- panstromek 2y ago
  I can't tell whether you're trying to make an argument with this comment or what's the reason for pointing that out.
  - xboxnolifes 2y ago
    The point is peak oil as a concept has existed for a long time, and we have extended way past its deadline before. It relies on not having technological advancement for accessing more oil.
    - NoGravitas 2y ago
      Not exactly: it relies on future sources of oil (unconventional oil) having lower EROI (Energy return on investment) than historical oil reserves (conventional oil). Technological advancements could conceivably increase the EROI of some unconventional sources, but they mainly seem to make new lower EROI sources available.
    - panstromek 2y ago
      Sure but that's not really argument for anything, it's just hopium. Oil is a finite resource, it will run out. Just because some breakthrough shift the timelines doesn't mean that the analysis isn't sound. There's no guarantee that another breakthrough is always coming.