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I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing f

by bArray 2y ago

I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange. If you see the breakdown graph [1], the likes of Norway is about to peak at 100%. The UK, US and EU are already becoming saturated, and China have saturated their internal markets and now face export tariffs to other significant markets to prevent dumping. The largest driving forces for this trend are essentially saturated. Just in the EU for example we see that energy prices continue to increase per kWh [2], further reducing the "low cost benefit" of electricity that EVs previously enjoyed. We also see governments beginning to realise that they miss out on vehicle tax for EVs due to incentives, and such benefits begin to be withheld [3]. As the global economy continues to slow, I expect to see EVs and any green agenda items decrease in popularity, and a return to combustion engines and other policies with higher economic growth. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share [2] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php... [3] https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vehicle-tax-for-electric-and-low-emissions-vehicles https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vehicle-tax-for-electric-and-low...

hristov 2y ago
It is very strange to see a grayed out comment on top of a thread that has about 160 non-grayed out comments. I thought that highest rated comments go to the top and grayed out comments are rated below zero. Regarding your points. First the thing about used evs not selling has more to do with the rapid pace of innovation of evs rather than lack of demand. In the 90s it was very difficult to sell a used PC because PCs improved so quickly. That did not mean that PCs were not doing well, in fact PC sales were growing exponentially. And evs do improve fast. Your second point is silly. Basically you are saying that EVs are doomed because EVs are already selling too much. Thats like the old joke that nobody goes to this restaurant anymore because it is too crowded. Your third point is about rising electricity costs. That sucks for sure, but electricity costs tend to rise together with gasoline costs. It will be very difficult for those two to diverge so that a gas car all of a sudden becomes more economical. The fact that one can make electricity out of oil and oil products tends to mean that electricity costs will not rise very much in comparison to gasoline costs in a short period of time.
- psychlops 2y ago
  > Your second point is silly. Basically you are saying that EVs are doomed because EVs are already selling too much. Thats like the old joke that nobody goes to this restaurant anymore because it is too crowded. I found it thought provoking rather than silly. Anecdotally, I've noticed EVs have gone from a type of car frequently seen on road trips to more of a city vehicle. This confines their location and purchasers.
- nuancebydefault 2y ago
  Agree except maybe... > The fact that one can make electricity out of oil. If you do that, there's little benefit from car electrification. Also electricity is cheap usually when the car is not charging and vice versa. People arrive home, start cooking, washing clothes and plug in their car. The sun is already set and the local grid's unprepared cable sections cause voltage drops. The energy dilivered by the pv panels at noon is worth less than 10 percent of the nominal price. That is what holding EV usage back right now.
  - DanielHB 2y ago
    > If you do that, there's little benefit from car electrification Untrue, if you generate power from oil at a big power plant, transmit it down to a house and charge a battery then use the battery to power an electric motor it will still be considerably more efficient than using a car-sized combustion engine (not even counting the energy required to transport the gasoline/diesel to the gas station). > The sun is already set and the local grid's unprepared cable sections cause voltage drops It seems inevitable that car-makers and utilities will need to agree on some kind of smart metering for charging cars at non-peak points. Energy costs at 12am->6am are actually cheaper than during the day even in areas with a lot of PVs (baseline power load can't be easily shut on/off). I heard there are some standards about this.
- bArray 2y ago
  > It is very strange to see a grayed out comment on top of a thread that has about 160 non-grayed out comments. I thought that highest rated comments go to the top and grayed out comments are rated below zero. I don't mind, I have internet points to spare. I think it's more important we have a proper discussion in this place. > Regarding your points. First the thing about used evs not selling has more to do with the rapid pace of innovation of evs rather than lack of demand. In the 90s it was very difficult to sell a used PC because PCs improved so quickly. That did not mean that PCs were not doing well, in fact PC sales were growing exponentially. And evs do improve fast. I disagree. I spoke to several dealerships and they simply cannot sell even a few year old EVs, despite them being able to sell 'new' EVs of that manufacturing date. From what I can tell it's that if you've got the money to spend £30k on an EV, why would you take a risk and buy a used one for £20k? There will be limited warranty and no 'classic' mechanic will touch it. If it's out of manufacturer warranty and you develop a battery fault, the battery and fitment can be comparable to the cost you paid for the entire vehicle. This is extremely unlikely to change soon. > Your second point is silly. Basically you are saying that EVs are doomed because EVs are already selling too much. Thats like the old joke that nobody goes to this restaurant anymore because it is too crowded. I'm not making that point at all. Whatever the market force is, there appears to be a saturation on the near horizon for percentage of sales. It's not an opinion, it's what the numbers suggest. > Your third point is about rising electricity costs. That sucks for sure, but electricity costs tend to rise together with gasoline costs. It will be very difficult for those two to diverge so that a gas car all of a sudden becomes more economical. The fact that one can make electricity out of oil and oil products tends to mean that electricity costs will not rise very much in comparison to gasoline costs in a short period of time. Without taxes, combustion engines are more economical (we're not discussing efficiency). Fuel duty and VAT in the UK represents over 50% of the overall cost of fuel [1]. Some portion of that tax is then used to subsidise green energy projects such as wind turbines and solar panels, further reducing the cost of electricity. [1] https://www.racfoundation.org/data/percentage-uk-pump-price-which-is-tax-page https://www.racfoundation.org/data/percentage-uk-pump-price-...
hnaccount_rng 2y ago
As the sibling comment says: Ability to resell EVs is a problem. But that's mostly because you can get a new car today (i.e. deliverable and everything) for the same price as an older EV and likely the new car is even better (larger battery, faster charging). That's unfortunate for first adopters and is a significant problem for adaption in lower-income circles (those typically buying second hand), but not a reason for going back to gasoline cars. At least here in Germany we are rapidly approaching the point where we will require power sinks in order to absorb solar around noon. And EVs are extremely well-positioned for that. Typically the charging time can be shifted around a bit and charging stations will come with their own buffer stage. That means that most people won't pay anywhere near the normal sticker price for electricity for their cars. All that being said: I agree that "green agenda items" will decrease in popularity (or really: they weren't that popular to begin with). But EVs in particular are just straight up cheaper. If not by construction, then definitely by the air pollution reduction interest of the Chinese government. I'd be highly surprised if incentive reduction has more than a delaying effect, if even that
- bArray 2y ago
  > That's unfortunate for first adopters and is a significant problem for adaption in lower-income circles (those typically buying second hand), but not a reason for going back to gasoline cars. I'm not advocating (here at least) for a move back to combustion vehicles, I'm just noting what I have seen. I would say that unless there is a serious used EV market and that the poorer people are able to afford an EV, there will forever be a resistance. You can push poor people out of the urban areas to rural locations with poor shared transport options, but they still need to commute to work. > All that being said: I agree that "green agenda items" will decrease in popularity (or really: they weren't that popular to begin with). But EVs in particular are just straight up cheaper. If not by construction, then definitely by the air pollution reduction interest of the Chinese government. I'd be highly surprised if incentive reduction has more than a delaying effect, if even that I think the reversal of most green policies is on the cards as governments struggle to balance the books with an incoming global recession. EVs are cheaper to run once you tax fuel to a higher price, otherwise they are not. EVs cost about half as much to run, and in the UK the fuel duty is approximately 50%, some of which is put into subsidising green electricity production. EVs are definitely not cheaper to construct, maintain or recycle end-of-life. The only thing I can think is that they have reduced emissions during the operating life-time of the vehicle, but I haven't seen the numbers to suggest if this includes the entire lifetime. Some quick numbers: Apparently petrol/diesel vehicles require ~5.6 tonnes CO2 to build, whereas EVs ~8.8 tonnes. I see numbers assuming that combustion vehicles produce ~4.6 tonnes CO2 annually, but it assumes 22.2 miles per gallon (very low fuel economy) and 11,500 miles driven a year (a heavy commuter). I think the assumptions are bad. That considered, then there is the recycling/upcycling of the vehicles. I know that for combustion vehicles this process is extremely efficient, as literally every part is recycled, much reused in the used car market.
snowwrestler 2y ago
In the long run, society goes to 100% electric transportation due to global warming. Any analysis that treats this as a simple matter of consumer choice is going to miss the biggest driver of adoption. Maybe some alternate carbon-neutral fuel for combustion is possible, but all the ones we’ve tried so far have lost out to electric.
- api 2y ago
  Not just global warming but eventually oil depletion. Fracking has given the oil industry a stay of execution but it will work until it doesn’t and the cheapest stuff is exhausted, just like conventional drilling. We know how to build good EVs now, which means the result of this will be a lot less catastrophic than twenty or thirty years ago. We are lucky the peak oilers back then underestimated.
  - panstromek 2y ago
    Yes, I don't think many people realize this but we have like ~46 years of oil left in total. That's not very much. It will just keep getting more expensive. Even if we keep burning coal for electricity, we still have 140 years of that left, so it's just a matter of relatively short time until the optimum flips in favor of electric.
    - api 2y ago
      I wouldn't be surprised if we stretch it further than 46 years. All previous estimates have been under-estimates. Still, it's a bit like stock market bubbles. During a bubble bears are wrong many times and right once. Your estimate for coal is probably low, unfortunately. There are vast amounts of it in places like Alaska and Siberia and elsewhere in the Arctic, maybe Antarctica too if that melts enough. We probably have enough carbon to destroy the world if we really don't give a damn and decide we don't want Florida. We have quite a lot of gas, too, which is not nearly as bad as coal for climate change but isn't great if we keep using it forever and at huge scale. The bottom line is that transition to electrified everything powered by solar, wind, hydro, nuclear (maybe fusion too eventually), and geothermal, is inevitable. The question is the timetable. Oil will be the first fossil fuel to go. It's already many times more expensive per kWh as a source of energy due to the difficult of substituting it for internal combustion engines and aviation.
itishappy 2y ago
Largely agree with your analysis, but wanted to comment on this point: > Just in the EU for example we see that energy prices continue to increase per kWh I think we'll see energy prices in the EU continue to rise until geopolitics cool off a bit. I'd be a bit disappointed if the EU looked at the current trends and decided to become even more dependent on oil and gas given how antagonistic the main producers currently are.
- bArray 2y ago
  I won't comment on geopolitics, but I believe (unfortunately) that the scales have tipped on global order. Irrespective of geopolitics, I suspect we will see electricity prices come down and then go back up, for several reasons: 1. As more EVs charge on the grid, it will become further under strain. Assuming on average every house owns an EV, and that EV power usage is approximately the equivalent of one house, it would be like the population doubles in terms of pressure on the electrical grid. No country has that kind of spare capacity. They will have to cost infrastructure improvements to the electricity bill. 2. As less combustion vehicles are used, combustion-based taxes will reduce, and the green energy initiatives will lose this subsidisation. This loss will be put onto the electricity customers directly. 3. EVs are significantly heavier (cars: ~25%, sedans: ~30%, trucks/SUVs: ~150%) and cause more wear on infrastructure. That wear will directly correlate with the amount of electricity used, and will be the easiest way to introduce a tax to cover these costs. Costs associated to EVs will likely come from unexpected places, like the additional damage caused in a collision [1], and these will also directly correlate with electricity usage. If anything the UK and EU appear to be near the peak of the EU sales percentage [2], if any Countries will see a decline in sales of EVs as a percentage of overall vehicles it would be those. [1] https://globalnews.ca/news/9587791/electric-vehicle-weight-safety-risk/#:~:text=A%202011%20study%20from%20the%20National%20Bureau,47%20per%20cent%20increase%20in%20fatality%20risk. https://globalnews.ca/news/9587791/electric-vehicle-weight-s... [2] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share

by bArray 2y ago

hristov 2y ago

It is very strange to see a grayed out comment on top of a thread that has about 160 non-grayed out comments. I thought that highest rated comments go to the top and grayed out comments are rated below zero. Regarding your points. First the thing about used evs not selling has more to do with the rapid pace of innovation of evs rather than lack of demand. In the 90s it was very difficult to sell a used PC because PCs improved so quickly. That did not mean that PCs were not doing well, in fact PC sales were growing exponentially. And evs do improve fast. Your second point is silly. Basically you are saying that EVs are doomed because EVs are already selling too much. Thats like the old joke that nobody goes to this restaurant anymore because it is too crowded. Your third point is about rising electricity costs. That sucks for sure, but electricity costs tend to rise together with gasoline costs. It will be very difficult for those two to diverge so that a gas car all of a sudden becomes more economical. The fact that one can make electricity out of oil and oil products tends to mean that electricity costs will not rise very much in comparison to gasoline costs in a short period of time.

psychlops 2y ago
> Your second point is silly. Basically you are saying that EVs are doomed because EVs are already selling too much. Thats like the old joke that nobody goes to this restaurant anymore because it is too crowded. I found it thought provoking rather than silly. Anecdotally, I've noticed EVs have gone from a type of car frequently seen on road trips to more of a city vehicle. This confines their location and purchasers.
nuancebydefault 2y ago
Agree except maybe... > The fact that one can make electricity out of oil. If you do that, there's little benefit from car electrification. Also electricity is cheap usually when the car is not charging and vice versa. People arrive home, start cooking, washing clothes and plug in their car. The sun is already set and the local grid's unprepared cable sections cause voltage drops. The energy dilivered by the pv panels at noon is worth less than 10 percent of the nominal price. That is what holding EV usage back right now.
- DanielHB 2y ago
  > If you do that, there's little benefit from car electrification Untrue, if you generate power from oil at a big power plant, transmit it down to a house and charge a battery then use the battery to power an electric motor it will still be considerably more efficient than using a car-sized combustion engine (not even counting the energy required to transport the gasoline/diesel to the gas station). > The sun is already set and the local grid's unprepared cable sections cause voltage drops It seems inevitable that car-makers and utilities will need to agree on some kind of smart metering for charging cars at non-peak points. Energy costs at 12am->6am are actually cheaper than during the day even in areas with a lot of PVs (baseline power load can't be easily shut on/off). I heard there are some standards about this.
bArray 2y ago
> It is very strange to see a grayed out comment on top of a thread that has about 160 non-grayed out comments. I thought that highest rated comments go to the top and grayed out comments are rated below zero. I don't mind, I have internet points to spare. I think it's more important we have a proper discussion in this place. > Regarding your points. First the thing about used evs not selling has more to do with the rapid pace of innovation of evs rather than lack of demand. In the 90s it was very difficult to sell a used PC because PCs improved so quickly. That did not mean that PCs were not doing well, in fact PC sales were growing exponentially. And evs do improve fast. I disagree. I spoke to several dealerships and they simply cannot sell even a few year old EVs, despite them being able to sell 'new' EVs of that manufacturing date. From what I can tell it's that if you've got the money to spend £30k on an EV, why would you take a risk and buy a used one for £20k? There will be limited warranty and no 'classic' mechanic will touch it. If it's out of manufacturer warranty and you develop a battery fault, the battery and fitment can be comparable to the cost you paid for the entire vehicle. This is extremely unlikely to change soon. > Your second point is silly. Basically you are saying that EVs are doomed because EVs are already selling too much. Thats like the old joke that nobody goes to this restaurant anymore because it is too crowded. I'm not making that point at all. Whatever the market force is, there appears to be a saturation on the near horizon for percentage of sales. It's not an opinion, it's what the numbers suggest. > Your third point is about rising electricity costs. That sucks for sure, but electricity costs tend to rise together with gasoline costs. It will be very difficult for those two to diverge so that a gas car all of a sudden becomes more economical. The fact that one can make electricity out of oil and oil products tends to mean that electricity costs will not rise very much in comparison to gasoline costs in a short period of time. Without taxes, combustion engines are more economical (we're not discussing efficiency). Fuel duty and VAT in the UK represents over 50% of the overall cost of fuel [1]. Some portion of that tax is then used to subsidise green energy projects such as wind turbines and solar panels, further reducing the cost of electricity. [1] https://www.racfoundation.org/data/percentage-uk-pump-price-which-is-tax-page https://www.racfoundation.org/data/percentage-uk-pump-price-...

hnaccount_rng 2y ago

As the sibling comment says: Ability to resell EVs is a problem. But that's mostly because you can get a new car today (i.e. deliverable and everything) for the same price as an older EV and likely the new car is even better (larger battery, faster charging). That's unfortunate for first adopters and is a significant problem for adaption in lower-income circles (those typically buying second hand), but not a reason for going back to gasoline cars. At least here in Germany we are rapidly approaching the point where we will require power sinks in order to absorb solar around noon. And EVs are extremely well-positioned for that. Typically the charging time can be shifted around a bit and charging stations will come with their own buffer stage. That means that most people won't pay anywhere near the normal sticker price for electricity for their cars. All that being said: I agree that "green agenda items" will decrease in popularity (or really: they weren't that popular to begin with). But EVs in particular are just straight up cheaper. If not by construction, then definitely by the air pollution reduction interest of the Chinese government. I'd be highly surprised if incentive reduction has more than a delaying effect, if even that

bArray 2y ago
> That's unfortunate for first adopters and is a significant problem for adaption in lower-income circles (those typically buying second hand), but not a reason for going back to gasoline cars. I'm not advocating (here at least) for a move back to combustion vehicles, I'm just noting what I have seen. I would say that unless there is a serious used EV market and that the poorer people are able to afford an EV, there will forever be a resistance. You can push poor people out of the urban areas to rural locations with poor shared transport options, but they still need to commute to work. > All that being said: I agree that "green agenda items" will decrease in popularity (or really: they weren't that popular to begin with). But EVs in particular are just straight up cheaper. If not by construction, then definitely by the air pollution reduction interest of the Chinese government. I'd be highly surprised if incentive reduction has more than a delaying effect, if even that I think the reversal of most green policies is on the cards as governments struggle to balance the books with an incoming global recession. EVs are cheaper to run once you tax fuel to a higher price, otherwise they are not. EVs cost about half as much to run, and in the UK the fuel duty is approximately 50%, some of which is put into subsidising green electricity production. EVs are definitely not cheaper to construct, maintain or recycle end-of-life. The only thing I can think is that they have reduced emissions during the operating life-time of the vehicle, but I haven't seen the numbers to suggest if this includes the entire lifetime. Some quick numbers: Apparently petrol/diesel vehicles require ~5.6 tonnes CO2 to build, whereas EVs ~8.8 tonnes. I see numbers assuming that combustion vehicles produce ~4.6 tonnes CO2 annually, but it assumes 22.2 miles per gallon (very low fuel economy) and 11,500 miles driven a year (a heavy commuter). I think the assumptions are bad. That considered, then there is the recycling/upcycling of the vehicles. I know that for combustion vehicles this process is extremely efficient, as literally every part is recycled, much reused in the used car market.

snowwrestler 2y ago

In the long run, society goes to 100% electric transportation due to global warming. Any analysis that treats this as a simple matter of consumer choice is going to miss the biggest driver of adoption. Maybe some alternate carbon-neutral fuel for combustion is possible, but all the ones we’ve tried so far have lost out to electric.

api 2y ago
Not just global warming but eventually oil depletion. Fracking has given the oil industry a stay of execution but it will work until it doesn’t and the cheapest stuff is exhausted, just like conventional drilling. We know how to build good EVs now, which means the result of this will be a lot less catastrophic than twenty or thirty years ago. We are lucky the peak oilers back then underestimated.
- panstromek 2y ago
  Yes, I don't think many people realize this but we have like ~46 years of oil left in total. That's not very much. It will just keep getting more expensive. Even if we keep burning coal for electricity, we still have 140 years of that left, so it's just a matter of relatively short time until the optimum flips in favor of electric.
  - api 2y ago
    I wouldn't be surprised if we stretch it further than 46 years. All previous estimates have been under-estimates. Still, it's a bit like stock market bubbles. During a bubble bears are wrong many times and right once. Your estimate for coal is probably low, unfortunately. There are vast amounts of it in places like Alaska and Siberia and elsewhere in the Arctic, maybe Antarctica too if that melts enough. We probably have enough carbon to destroy the world if we really don't give a damn and decide we don't want Florida. We have quite a lot of gas, too, which is not nearly as bad as coal for climate change but isn't great if we keep using it forever and at huge scale. The bottom line is that transition to electrified everything powered by solar, wind, hydro, nuclear (maybe fusion too eventually), and geothermal, is inevitable. The question is the timetable. Oil will be the first fossil fuel to go. It's already many times more expensive per kWh as a source of energy due to the difficult of substituting it for internal combustion engines and aviation.

itishappy 2y ago

Largely agree with your analysis, but wanted to comment on this point: > Just in the EU for example we see that energy prices continue to increase per kWh I think we'll see energy prices in the EU continue to rise until geopolitics cool off a bit. I'd be a bit disappointed if the EU looked at the current trends and decided to become even more dependent on oil and gas given how antagonistic the main producers currently are.

bArray 2y ago
I won't comment on geopolitics, but I believe (unfortunately) that the scales have tipped on global order. Irrespective of geopolitics, I suspect we will see electricity prices come down and then go back up, for several reasons: 1. As more EVs charge on the grid, it will become further under strain. Assuming on average every house owns an EV, and that EV power usage is approximately the equivalent of one house, it would be like the population doubles in terms of pressure on the electrical grid. No country has that kind of spare capacity. They will have to cost infrastructure improvements to the electricity bill. 2. As less combustion vehicles are used, combustion-based taxes will reduce, and the green energy initiatives will lose this subsidisation. This loss will be put onto the electricity customers directly. 3. EVs are significantly heavier (cars: ~25%, sedans: ~30%, trucks/SUVs: ~150%) and cause more wear on infrastructure. That wear will directly correlate with the amount of electricity used, and will be the easiest way to introduce a tax to cover these costs. Costs associated to EVs will likely come from unexpected places, like the additional damage caused in a collision [1], and these will also directly correlate with electricity usage. If anything the UK and EU appear to be near the peak of the EU sales percentage [2], if any Countries will see a decline in sales of EVs as a percentage of overall vehicles it would be those. [1] https://globalnews.ca/news/9587791/electric-vehicle-weight-safety-risk/#:~:text=A%202011%20study%20from%20the%20National%20Bureau,47%20per%20cent%20increase%20in%20fatality%20risk. https://globalnews.ca/news/9587791/electric-vehicle-weight-s... [2] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share