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They only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate. I'd guess they looked at their options and decided this was the best hed

by ethbr1 2y ago

They only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate. I'd guess they looked at their options and decided this was the best hedge.

yo_yo_yo-yo 2y ago
Now that I’ve calmed down a bit, I agree with your assessment. The optics game is so important, but Taiwan is in an impossible situation. If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they limit advanced process silicon to other countries and let Huawei and others monopolize the advanced nodes. The US at present does not appear to be a dependable partner.
- re-thc 2y ago
  > If I were China I wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan (despite what they say out loud). It's currently: - the best place to show military might (the "drills") - the best place to continue a proxy war with the US / EU - replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business
  - roenxi 2y ago
    China is huge, huge things don't do subtlety well over any long timeframe. It is hard enough to get people to do move in sync with clear communications, let alone when there are confusing signals. If China says they want control of Taiwan, the base scenario is they are serious. The only thing holding them back is how expensive it is to execute on that want. Although since the action is off the Chinese coast and China appears to be stronger than the US right now I don't see how this ends well for Taiwan.
    - justahuman74 2y ago
      It's not just expense, it's generalized threat aversion. Even if China can control the waters around them, they may find them selves boxed in. It doesn't take a lot of sunken cargo ships for operators to refuse to run the boats
  - throwaway290 2y ago
    > replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business explain?
    - re-thc 2y ago
      > explain? Taiwan has most of its trade with China (like it or not). There are numerous things that are e.g. illegal in China but "legal" in Taiwan and so Chinese business is conducted there e.g. online gambling sites. Then there are plenty of Taiwanese companies that end up being a disguise for China 1 way or another e.g. to bypass sanctions (well so is Singapore as per recent news on nvidia gpu smuggling). 1 of the best examples is VIA technologies, that helped China create x86 CPUs back in the days. A lot of Chinese gangs in Asia used to operate out of Hong Kong. When 1997 happened (i.e. return to China), most of them gave up or moved to other places like Taiwan since China has the death penalty.
      - throwaway290 2y ago
        > Taiwan has most of its trade with China (like it or not). Does that make it a place for shady deals? > There are numerous things that are e.g. illegal in China but "legal" in Taiwan and so Chinese business is conducted there e.g. online gambling sites Gambling is illegal in Taiwan > Then there are plenty of Taiwanese companies that end up being a disguise for China 1 way or another e.g. to bypass sanctions (well so is Singapore as per recent news on nvidia gpu smuggling). 1 of the best examples is VIA technologies, that helped China create x86 CPUs back in the days. Citation needed
        re-thc 2y ago
        > Does that make it a place for shady deals? Where do you expect them to go then? It's the most logical place. > Gambling is illegal in Taiwan They aren't offering gambling services in Taiwan to Taiwanese people. Hence it's definitely a gray area. > Citation needed VIA technologies? Too old, link likely wiped, but you can look the history. VIA technologies went into a JV with China in 2013 called Zhaoxin. Before that they literally never touched the x86 for years. There was no way for China to otherwise acquire an x86 license (this was before ARM would be a thing). For reference you can compare it to how AMD handled a similar JV [0] and see stark differences. AMD went to long lengths to protect their IP and then stopped once they no longer needed to. If we have to keep going, HTC also eventually suffered a similar but different fate. Funny that both companies have something to do with a certain someone... [0]: https://wccftech.com/no-amd-did-not-sell-keys-kingdom-how-thatic-jv-works/ https://wccftech.com/no-amd-did-not-sell-keys-kingdom-how-th...
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan China does. Xi does not. Trump has been the bailout to Xi that China’s wolf warriors and Putin were to America after the Iraq & Afghanistan wars.
    - re-thc 2y ago
      > China does. Xi does not. At the end of the day the leadership is who makes the decisions. The notion of a "country" does not.
      - luthus001 2y ago
        That's too simplistic. Even a dictator has to balance many things - the loyalty and competency of his generals, prevailing sentiments of his troops and of society in general, and much more. Large scale dissent is problematic even to authoritarians. An extended strike by key workers, like truck drivers, could cause outright collapse and regime change, so can a military coup by disgruntled troops. What Xi has said so far may have been misrepresented by the media, and exaggerated to rally public support for the new Cold War and for more military spending. What Xi actually said is he would not allow formal independence of Taiwan, and that he prefers closer relations/integration with Taiwan for an eventual "reunited" outcome, saying nothing of the status quo or that he would change it by force. For as long as the economic deterrence exists, I highly doubt that a war would happen over Taiwan barring one of 2 scenarios: 1)Taiwan declears formal independence by amending its Constitution, or 2) western troops, bases, or "security guarantees" are established over Taiwan
- dev1ycan 2y ago
  They've said so as much that they plan to give it a similar to hong kong style government if they wilingly join, and from the latest trump Q&A it almost confirms that once America has TSMC fabs running in their country they won't care to protect Taiwan. Being a realist Taiwan joining China willingly under those conditions before they basically technology transfer to America and make themselves worth much less (In China's eye), is their best bet, or I would say if ASML wasn't a thing. Sadly for Taiwan they are between a sword and a wall, ASML is required for them to continue innovating, if they were to annex themselves to China they would lose access to EUV and High NA EUV and basically lose their ability to produce sub 5nm semiconductors no matter how talented they are, and I don't think that SMEE in China is close to EUV let alone High NA EUV. I understand this comment will upset some people but I tried to be a realist about what would happen if things were to hit the fan
  - abrookewood 2y ago
    A Hong-Kong style government doesn't mean as much as it used to.
  - justahuman74 2y ago
    TSMC is 100% ruined if they join China, it is the end of it process competitiveness.
- adastra22 2y ago
  > If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they... What authority do you think China has over Taiwan?
  - tehjoker 2y ago
    Both countries claim to be one China lol
    - adastra22 2y ago
      This take is ignorant of the last 20 years of Taiwanese politics.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > what authority do you think China has over Taiwan? Authority, none. Power, plenty.
    - adastra22 2y ago
      They can try and find out.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - rurp 2y ago
        Well, I hope they don't. Unless you know something the rest of the world doesn't China has Taiwan seriously outmatched both economically and militarily. The main question is if China takes minimal or significant losses in the event of an attack.
        adastra22 2y ago
        I could say the same to you. Never in the history of humanity has there ever been an amphibious assault as large as would be required and over as far a distance as the Taiwan straight. And Taiwan is a veritable fortress. A warrens’ nest of hidden antiship missiles and ammunition sites.
- gman83 2y ago
  China broke promises about "One country, two systems" in Hong Kong, so I don't think Taiwan can count on any promises made there either.
  - SV_BubbleTime 2y ago
    I old enough remember morons celebrating Taiwan’s “independence” from England. Yea… about that though. Thing everyone logical knew would happen, happened.
bongodongobob 2y ago
Bingo, see Foxconn in Wisconsin.
- Sabinus 2y ago
  Plus Trump's administration (and his personal direction of the government) is likely weaker in policy and governance skills and experience so it'll be easier for TSMC to get away with stringing them along.
- bruce511 2y ago
  For Foxconn see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconn_Valley_Science_and_Technology_Park https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconn_Valley_Science_and_T... But it's very worth pointing this out. The Taiwanese announcement is just an announcement. When a chip, any chip, rolls off the line (from this investment) let me know. The reality is that in 4 years Trump will be gone. Building a plant will take longer than that. This is nothing more than good PR.
lurk2 2y ago
Why would subsequent presidents allow Taiwan to maintain leverage over supply chains crucial to American national security?
- jopsen 2y ago
  Subsequent president might realize that America might want allies, and if so they'll attempt to appear reliable. Current administration is fast tracking nuclear prolifiacian. A future president might want to stop such trends.
  - cheema33 2y ago
    > Current administration is fast tracking nuclear prolifiacian. This is correct. Gone are the days when countries could count on the US to provide some protection against illegal invasions. All nations without nukes have to be considering them seriously now. Sure, they signed the NPT. But agreements no longer mean what they used to. Russia violates most of the agreements it signs. US already trashed the Budapest memorandum that it signed in 1996. We were supposed to provide security to Ukraine in exchange for them giving up nukes.
    - 0xDEAFBEAD 2y ago
      >US already trashed the Budapest memorandum that it signed in 1996. We were supposed to provide security to Ukraine in exchange for them giving up nukes. This is a common misconception. If you read the memorandum (it's rather short) you'll see it isn't true. We only promised to seek UN Security Council action. We went far beyond that. https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/P...
      - _t9ow 2y ago
        > We only promised to seek UN Security Council action And ended up voting with Russia anyway.
agumonkey 2y ago
Fair point. I only worry that trump might decide to play them both ways.. extort investments for protection, then reneg the help unilaterally on a whim.
- _t9ow 2y ago
  > extort investments for protection, then reneg the help unilaterally on a whim I would be surprised if he doesn't do this, judging by his long track record of not paying his contractors and business partners after receiving their goods and services.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> they only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate Taipei needs nukes. There simply isn’t another guarantor of sovereign security anymore.
- rjzzleep 2y ago
  Guess which country shut down Taiwans nuclear program.
- _t9ow 2y ago
  > Taipei needs nukes This essay explains very lucidly why it's not as straightforward as you think: https://taipology.substack.com/p/no-nukes-are-not-going-to-save-taiwan https://taipology.substack.com/p/no-nukes-are-not-going-to-s...
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > As soon as China catches a whiff of the program, it’s an instant invasion This is correct and why any such project would need to be intensely covert and/or externally facilitated. > doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) rests on both parties being left in guaranteed ruins You don’t need MAD. Tehran isn’t aiming for MAD with America, and neither is Pyongyang. The threat of even a tactical retaliation has, to date, been sufficient to keep great powers at bay. Oung is speaking the language of deterrence and non-proliferation; we are past that, unfortunately [1]. [1] https://mondediplo.com/2022/04/03nuclear https://mondediplo.com/2022/04/03nuclear
    - tokioyoyo 2y ago
      The risks don’t outweigh the potential benefits. Building a functional nuke isn’t an operation with a couple of laptops and internet connection. Also, Taiwanese economy is extremely tied to China. Things aren’t really black and white here. It’s not like all Taiwanese hate all mainlanders, nobody flies between countries and etc. Supermajority of people actually support status quo, rather than aiming for complete independence. It’s not an easy thing to balance.
jgilias 2y ago
1,5 months feels like 2 years these days. Besides, that rests on the assumption that the US is going to have a “free and fair” election in 2 and 4 years. Trump said loud and clear on the campaign trail that you need to come out and vote for him just this one last time. Won’t need to vote afterwards at all, they’ll fix it. This seems like one of the promises he’d be really inclined to hold, if he can.
rurp 2y ago
You're being awfully generous thinking this needs to look real for years. If similar big announcements are any guide then the administration will have moved onto some other shiny object in a matter of days or weeks and will never return for any followup.

by ethbr1 2y ago

They only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate. I'd guess they looked at their options and decided this was the best hedge.

yo_yo_yo-yo 2y ago

Now that I’ve calmed down a bit, I agree with your assessment. The optics game is so important, but Taiwan is in an impossible situation. If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they limit advanced process silicon to other countries and let Huawei and others monopolize the advanced nodes. The US at present does not appear to be a dependable partner.

re-thc 2y ago
> If I were China I wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan (despite what they say out loud). It's currently: - the best place to show military might (the "drills") - the best place to continue a proxy war with the US / EU - replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business
- roenxi 2y ago
  China is huge, huge things don't do subtlety well over any long timeframe. It is hard enough to get people to do move in sync with clear communications, let alone when there are confusing signals. If China says they want control of Taiwan, the base scenario is they are serious. The only thing holding them back is how expensive it is to execute on that want. Although since the action is off the Chinese coast and China appears to be stronger than the US right now I don't see how this ends well for Taiwan.
  - justahuman74 2y ago
    It's not just expense, it's generalized threat aversion. Even if China can control the waters around them, they may find them selves boxed in. It doesn't take a lot of sunken cargo ships for operators to refuse to run the boats
- throwaway290 2y ago
  > replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business explain?
  - re-thc 2y ago
    > explain? Taiwan has most of its trade with China (like it or not). There are numerous things that are e.g. illegal in China but "legal" in Taiwan and so Chinese business is conducted there e.g. online gambling sites. Then there are plenty of Taiwanese companies that end up being a disguise for China 1 way or another e.g. to bypass sanctions (well so is Singapore as per recent news on nvidia gpu smuggling). 1 of the best examples is VIA technologies, that helped China create x86 CPUs back in the days. A lot of Chinese gangs in Asia used to operate out of Hong Kong. When 1997 happened (i.e. return to China), most of them gave up or moved to other places like Taiwan since China has the death penalty.
    - throwaway290 2y ago
      > Taiwan has most of its trade with China (like it or not). Does that make it a place for shady deals? > There are numerous things that are e.g. illegal in China but "legal" in Taiwan and so Chinese business is conducted there e.g. online gambling sites Gambling is illegal in Taiwan > Then there are plenty of Taiwanese companies that end up being a disguise for China 1 way or another e.g. to bypass sanctions (well so is Singapore as per recent news on nvidia gpu smuggling). 1 of the best examples is VIA technologies, that helped China create x86 CPUs back in the days. Citation needed
      - re-thc 2y ago
        > Does that make it a place for shady deals? Where do you expect them to go then? It's the most logical place. > Gambling is illegal in Taiwan They aren't offering gambling services in Taiwan to Taiwanese people. Hence it's definitely a gray area. > Citation needed VIA technologies? Too old, link likely wiped, but you can look the history. VIA technologies went into a JV with China in 2013 called Zhaoxin. Before that they literally never touched the x86 for years. There was no way for China to otherwise acquire an x86 license (this was before ARM would be a thing). For reference you can compare it to how AMD handled a similar JV [0] and see stark differences. AMD went to long lengths to protect their IP and then stopped once they no longer needed to. If we have to keep going, HTC also eventually suffered a similar but different fate. Funny that both companies have something to do with a certain someone... [0]: https://wccftech.com/no-amd-did-not-sell-keys-kingdom-how-thatic-jv-works/ https://wccftech.com/no-amd-did-not-sell-keys-kingdom-how-th...
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan China does. Xi does not. Trump has been the bailout to Xi that China’s wolf warriors and Putin were to America after the Iraq & Afghanistan wars.
  - re-thc 2y ago
    > China does. Xi does not. At the end of the day the leadership is who makes the decisions. The notion of a "country" does not.
    - luthus001 2y ago
      That's too simplistic. Even a dictator has to balance many things - the loyalty and competency of his generals, prevailing sentiments of his troops and of society in general, and much more. Large scale dissent is problematic even to authoritarians. An extended strike by key workers, like truck drivers, could cause outright collapse and regime change, so can a military coup by disgruntled troops. What Xi has said so far may have been misrepresented by the media, and exaggerated to rally public support for the new Cold War and for more military spending. What Xi actually said is he would not allow formal independence of Taiwan, and that he prefers closer relations/integration with Taiwan for an eventual "reunited" outcome, saying nothing of the status quo or that he would change it by force. For as long as the economic deterrence exists, I highly doubt that a war would happen over Taiwan barring one of 2 scenarios: 1)Taiwan declears formal independence by amending its Constitution, or 2) western troops, bases, or "security guarantees" are established over Taiwan
dev1ycan 2y ago
They've said so as much that they plan to give it a similar to hong kong style government if they wilingly join, and from the latest trump Q&A it almost confirms that once America has TSMC fabs running in their country they won't care to protect Taiwan. Being a realist Taiwan joining China willingly under those conditions before they basically technology transfer to America and make themselves worth much less (In China's eye), is their best bet, or I would say if ASML wasn't a thing. Sadly for Taiwan they are between a sword and a wall, ASML is required for them to continue innovating, if they were to annex themselves to China they would lose access to EUV and High NA EUV and basically lose their ability to produce sub 5nm semiconductors no matter how talented they are, and I don't think that SMEE in China is close to EUV let alone High NA EUV. I understand this comment will upset some people but I tried to be a realist about what would happen if things were to hit the fan
- abrookewood 2y ago
  A Hong-Kong style government doesn't mean as much as it used to.
- justahuman74 2y ago
  TSMC is 100% ruined if they join China, it is the end of it process competitiveness.
adastra22 2y ago
> If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they... What authority do you think China has over Taiwan?
- tehjoker 2y ago
  Both countries claim to be one China lol
  - adastra22 2y ago
    This take is ignorant of the last 20 years of Taiwanese politics.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > what authority do you think China has over Taiwan? Authority, none. Power, plenty.
  - adastra22 2y ago
    They can try and find out.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - rurp 2y ago
      Well, I hope they don't. Unless you know something the rest of the world doesn't China has Taiwan seriously outmatched both economically and militarily. The main question is if China takes minimal or significant losses in the event of an attack.
      - adastra22 2y ago
        I could say the same to you. Never in the history of humanity has there ever been an amphibious assault as large as would be required and over as far a distance as the Taiwan straight. And Taiwan is a veritable fortress. A warrens’ nest of hidden antiship missiles and ammunition sites.
gman83 2y ago
China broke promises about "One country, two systems" in Hong Kong, so I don't think Taiwan can count on any promises made there either.
- SV_BubbleTime 2y ago
  I old enough remember morons celebrating Taiwan’s “independence” from England. Yea… about that though. Thing everyone logical knew would happen, happened.

bongodongobob 2y ago

Bingo, see Foxconn in Wisconsin.

Sabinus 2y ago
Plus Trump's administration (and his personal direction of the government) is likely weaker in policy and governance skills and experience so it'll be easier for TSMC to get away with stringing them along.
bruce511 2y ago
For Foxconn see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconn_Valley_Science_and_Technology_Park https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconn_Valley_Science_and_T... But it's very worth pointing this out. The Taiwanese announcement is just an announcement. When a chip, any chip, rolls off the line (from this investment) let me know. The reality is that in 4 years Trump will be gone. Building a plant will take longer than that. This is nothing more than good PR.

lurk2 2y ago

Why would subsequent presidents allow Taiwan to maintain leverage over supply chains crucial to American national security?

jopsen 2y ago
Subsequent president might realize that America might want allies, and if so they'll attempt to appear reliable. Current administration is fast tracking nuclear prolifiacian. A future president might want to stop such trends.
- cheema33 2y ago
  > Current administration is fast tracking nuclear prolifiacian. This is correct. Gone are the days when countries could count on the US to provide some protection against illegal invasions. All nations without nukes have to be considering them seriously now. Sure, they signed the NPT. But agreements no longer mean what they used to. Russia violates most of the agreements it signs. US already trashed the Budapest memorandum that it signed in 1996. We were supposed to provide security to Ukraine in exchange for them giving up nukes.
  - 0xDEAFBEAD 2y ago
    >US already trashed the Budapest memorandum that it signed in 1996. We were supposed to provide security to Ukraine in exchange for them giving up nukes. This is a common misconception. If you read the memorandum (it's rather short) you'll see it isn't true. We only promised to seek UN Security Council action. We went far beyond that. https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/P...
    - _t9ow 2y ago
      > We only promised to seek UN Security Council action And ended up voting with Russia anyway.

agumonkey 2y ago

Fair point. I only worry that trump might decide to play them both ways.. extort investments for protection, then reneg the help unilaterally on a whim.

_t9ow 2y ago
> extort investments for protection, then reneg the help unilaterally on a whim I would be surprised if he doesn't do this, judging by his long track record of not paying his contractors and business partners after receiving their goods and services.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> they only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate Taipei needs nukes. There simply isn’t another guarantor of sovereign security anymore.

rjzzleep 2y ago
Guess which country shut down Taiwans nuclear program.
_t9ow 2y ago
> Taipei needs nukes This essay explains very lucidly why it's not as straightforward as you think: https://taipology.substack.com/p/no-nukes-are-not-going-to-save-taiwan https://taipology.substack.com/p/no-nukes-are-not-going-to-s...
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > As soon as China catches a whiff of the program, it’s an instant invasion This is correct and why any such project would need to be intensely covert and/or externally facilitated. > doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) rests on both parties being left in guaranteed ruins You don’t need MAD. Tehran isn’t aiming for MAD with America, and neither is Pyongyang. The threat of even a tactical retaliation has, to date, been sufficient to keep great powers at bay. Oung is speaking the language of deterrence and non-proliferation; we are past that, unfortunately [1]. [1] https://mondediplo.com/2022/04/03nuclear https://mondediplo.com/2022/04/03nuclear
  - tokioyoyo 2y ago
    The risks don’t outweigh the potential benefits. Building a functional nuke isn’t an operation with a couple of laptops and internet connection. Also, Taiwanese economy is extremely tied to China. Things aren’t really black and white here. It’s not like all Taiwanese hate all mainlanders, nobody flies between countries and etc. Supermajority of people actually support status quo, rather than aiming for complete independence. It’s not an easy thing to balance.

jgilias 2y ago

1,5 months feels like 2 years these days. Besides, that rests on the assumption that the US is going to have a “free and fair” election in 2 and 4 years. Trump said loud and clear on the campaign trail that you need to come out and vote for him just this one last time. Won’t need to vote afterwards at all, they’ll fix it. This seems like one of the promises he’d be really inclined to hold, if he can.

rurp 2y ago

You're being awfully generous thinking this needs to look real for years. If similar big announcements are any guide then the administration will have moved onto some other shiny object in a matter of days or weeks and will never return for any followup.