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I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them regardless of the incentives, at this point. In that case, might as well try to avoid the tariffs

I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them regardless of the incentives, at this point. In that case, might as well try to avoid the tariffs. If they send enough engineers over, we won’t actually learn how to make the chips. Then when the next election happens they can re-evaluate. If China invades in the next four years, I guess… I dunno, at least they’ll have gotten some people out. It is a pretty bad situation, I guess they are just doing what they can.

aurareturn 2y ago
I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them regardless of the incentives, at this point. In that case, might as well try to avoid the tariffs. I think the Ukraine situation already signaled that to Taiwan. Ultimately, China won't invade as long as Taiwan plays its cards right. China wants to retake Taiwan without firing a single shot and then quickly re-integrate Taiwan. As long as Taiwan doesn't do anything to provoke China like inviting Nancy Pelosi or voting in more pro-independence politicians. I actually think these events decreases the chance of a Chinese invasion but increases the chance of a peaceful reunification because the Taiwanese government will look to rely less on the US and positive impression of the US is decreasing in Taiwan.
- wordofx 2y ago
  > China wants to retake Taiwan Take. They can’t “retake” something they never had.
  - aurareturn 2y ago
    The island of Taiwan belonged to China at some point. No political statement needed and no need to rewrite history on HN comments. Historically, Taiwan was governed by Chinese administrations for a significant period. In 1683, after defeating the Ming loyalists in Taiwan, the Qing dynasty extended its rule over the island, eventually incorporating it as part of its empire. By 1887, Taiwan was officially designated a province of China under Qing rule. However, following the First Sino-Japanese War, Taiwan was ceded to Japan in 1895. After World War II, Taiwan was placed under the administrative control of the Republic of China. Today, its status remains politically and historically complex, with ongoing debates over sovereignty.
    - zmgsabst 2y ago
      Taiwan is under the administration of the government which ruled China then — and has continued to rule Taiwan since before the revolution led by the CCP. That’s why their official name is the “Republic of China”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%931949) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%... The CCP never controlled Taiwan: it remained independent and under the previous regime. So the CCP would need to take Taiwan as their regime never controlled it. You’re the one rewriting history.
      - antifa 2y ago
        > Taiwan is under the administration of the government which ruled China Both consider themselves the temporarily embarrassed rightful heir to the centuries old concept of China. The distinction between take/retake in this scenario is a shallow attempt to peacock your political opinion for everyone to see.
        alisonatwork 2y ago
        > Both consider themselves the temporarily embarrassed rightful heir to the centuries old concept of China. This is an outdated take that does not reflect the contemporary feelings of the Taiwanese people and at best only describes a facet of KMT party policy. Bear in mind the KMT does not hold a majority in the legislature - they had to form a coalition with a third party to do so - and the president is from the DPP, which explicitly considers Taiwan a sovereign nation and does not buy into the notion that Taiwan is secretly the real China.
        zmgsabst 2y ago
        So is the insistence on “retake”. With the exception that “take” is technically correct, as the area in question is a remnant of the already existing government which has maintained independence in a cease fire. Both claim the other, but facts still matter. You don’t “retake” an area that was never under your control. The RoC lost mainland China to the CCP, but the CCP was never the owner of Taiwan.
- zmgsabst 2y ago
  I believe allowing China to seize Philippine islands without response was actually the appeasement which escalated the situation. (Along with raiding oil fields, etc of their other neighbors.)
phs318u 2y ago
> I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them I think every sensible ally of the US would now be developing (if they haven't already) contingency plans for any scenario in which they might get embroiled in that would (under previously agreed terms) require an ally to support them. Who can believe in an unconditional military alliance, when the US government is so nakedly prioritising economic transactionalism, even at the expense of their own long-term security (there's a reason countries get into alliances). This US government's handling of the Ukraine situation will undoubtedly turn out to have been the biggest geopolitical footgun for many a decade.
xuki 2y ago
The US will NOT engage in a hot war against China for Taiwan, that's for certain, regardless of who is president at that time. Why would they risk nuclear war for a bunch of people who are really far away from the US continent?
- Stephen_0xFF 2y ago
  It’s not so much the people or the land, but rather what they can build. It’s the whole essence of the article. Not sure how far behind the West would fall if TSMC was controlled by the CCP. 5 years? 10?
  - zmgsabst 2y ago
    We’d blow up the fabs ourselves. But it’s in Taiwans interest for us to continue to provide them arms, training, and build regional alliances to pressure China. I’m also not as convinced the US wouldn’t respond, but it would depend on South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and ASEAN nations to call for such action — if they felt threatened enough by China’s actions in taking Taiwan and Philippine islands to declare war themselves. Edit: Including article discussing blowing up fabs and Taiwanese response that cutting off ASML and similar would be just as effective. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-would-destroy-taiwan-semiconductor-factories-avoid-china-trump-adviser-2023-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/us-would-destroy-taiwan-semi...
    - aurareturn 2y ago
      We’d blow up the fabs ourselves. Nah. You're not thinking this through. That'd start WW3. China considers Taiwan as a province of theirs. Bombing anything in Taiwan by the US would be the same as bombing China itself to the Chinese government. If the US bombs China, expect China to declare war on the US. Have fun getting drafted in the military. Not to mention it's the quickest way for Taiwanese people to completely turn on the US.
  - bavell 2y ago
    Unless a series of unfortunate accidents occur at the TSMC fabs long before China can put them to use...

aurareturn 2y ago

I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them regardless of the incentives, at this point. In that case, might as well try to avoid the tariffs. I think the Ukraine situation already signaled that to Taiwan. Ultimately, China won't invade as long as Taiwan plays its cards right. China wants to retake Taiwan without firing a single shot and then quickly re-integrate Taiwan. As long as Taiwan doesn't do anything to provoke China like inviting Nancy Pelosi or voting in more pro-independence politicians. I actually think these events decreases the chance of a Chinese invasion but increases the chance of a peaceful reunification because the Taiwanese government will look to rely less on the US and positive impression of the US is decreasing in Taiwan.

wordofx 2y ago
> China wants to retake Taiwan Take. They can’t “retake” something they never had.
- aurareturn 2y ago
  The island of Taiwan belonged to China at some point. No political statement needed and no need to rewrite history on HN comments. Historically, Taiwan was governed by Chinese administrations for a significant period. In 1683, after defeating the Ming loyalists in Taiwan, the Qing dynasty extended its rule over the island, eventually incorporating it as part of its empire. By 1887, Taiwan was officially designated a province of China under Qing rule. However, following the First Sino-Japanese War, Taiwan was ceded to Japan in 1895. After World War II, Taiwan was placed under the administrative control of the Republic of China. Today, its status remains politically and historically complex, with ongoing debates over sovereignty.
  - zmgsabst 2y ago
    Taiwan is under the administration of the government which ruled China then — and has continued to rule Taiwan since before the revolution led by the CCP. That’s why their official name is the “Republic of China”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%931949) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%... The CCP never controlled Taiwan: it remained independent and under the previous regime. So the CCP would need to take Taiwan as their regime never controlled it. You’re the one rewriting history.
    - antifa 2y ago
      > Taiwan is under the administration of the government which ruled China Both consider themselves the temporarily embarrassed rightful heir to the centuries old concept of China. The distinction between take/retake in this scenario is a shallow attempt to peacock your political opinion for everyone to see.
      - alisonatwork 2y ago
        > Both consider themselves the temporarily embarrassed rightful heir to the centuries old concept of China. This is an outdated take that does not reflect the contemporary feelings of the Taiwanese people and at best only describes a facet of KMT party policy. Bear in mind the KMT does not hold a majority in the legislature - they had to form a coalition with a third party to do so - and the president is from the DPP, which explicitly considers Taiwan a sovereign nation and does not buy into the notion that Taiwan is secretly the real China.
      - zmgsabst 2y ago
        So is the insistence on “retake”. With the exception that “take” is technically correct, as the area in question is a remnant of the already existing government which has maintained independence in a cease fire. Both claim the other, but facts still matter. You don’t “retake” an area that was never under your control. The RoC lost mainland China to the CCP, but the CCP was never the owner of Taiwan.
zmgsabst 2y ago
I believe allowing China to seize Philippine islands without response was actually the appeasement which escalated the situation. (Along with raiding oil fields, etc of their other neighbors.)

phs318u 2y ago

> I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them I think every sensible ally of the US would now be developing (if they haven't already) contingency plans for any scenario in which they might get embroiled in that would (under previously agreed terms) require an ally to support them. Who can believe in an unconditional military alliance, when the US government is so nakedly prioritising economic transactionalism, even at the expense of their own long-term security (there's a reason countries get into alliances). This US government's handling of the Ukraine situation will undoubtedly turn out to have been the biggest geopolitical footgun for many a decade.

xuki 2y ago

The US will NOT engage in a hot war against China for Taiwan, that's for certain, regardless of who is president at that time. Why would they risk nuclear war for a bunch of people who are really far away from the US continent?

Stephen_0xFF 2y ago
It’s not so much the people or the land, but rather what they can build. It’s the whole essence of the article. Not sure how far behind the West would fall if TSMC was controlled by the CCP. 5 years? 10?
- zmgsabst 2y ago
  We’d blow up the fabs ourselves. But it’s in Taiwans interest for us to continue to provide them arms, training, and build regional alliances to pressure China. I’m also not as convinced the US wouldn’t respond, but it would depend on South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and ASEAN nations to call for such action — if they felt threatened enough by China’s actions in taking Taiwan and Philippine islands to declare war themselves. Edit: Including article discussing blowing up fabs and Taiwanese response that cutting off ASML and similar would be just as effective. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-would-destroy-taiwan-semiconductor-factories-avoid-china-trump-adviser-2023-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/us-would-destroy-taiwan-semi...
  - aurareturn 2y ago
    We’d blow up the fabs ourselves. Nah. You're not thinking this through. That'd start WW3. China considers Taiwan as a province of theirs. Bombing anything in Taiwan by the US would be the same as bombing China itself to the Chinese government. If the US bombs China, expect China to declare war on the US. Have fun getting drafted in the military. Not to mention it's the quickest way for Taiwanese people to completely turn on the US.
- bavell 2y ago
  Unless a series of unfortunate accidents occur at the TSMC fabs long before China can put them to use...