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If this graph is the evidence for "Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked" isn't it also the evidence proving "global car sales have peaked"?
by skeeter2020 2y ago
If this graph is the evidence for "Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked" isn't it also the evidence proving "global car sales have peaked"?
- recursive 2y agoMaybe, but not as strong. Combustion is down or flat every year since '16. Aggregate numbers haven't regained their peak, but are up and down.
- mlyle 2y agoMaybe. Less clear evidence of that. Total cars down by 5-6%, and lower than 6 of the previous 13 years. Combustion cars down by 24%, and lower than 12 of the previous 13 years.
- jmclnx 2y agoIt does not get into the "why", but I realize that is hard to determine. My question is, are these sales for brand new cars or does it include used cars also ? I know my days of buying brand new ended years ago due to how expensive new cars are. My current car (bought used) is from 2007 and if I have to buy another, it will be used. So I have to wonder, are people avoiding buying new due to the expense. That could point to a reason. Would be interesting to see charts based upon Country or group of countries.
- chgs 2y agoEvery used car was a new car at one point Every scrapped car is a used car
- km144 2y agoI think the point about used cars would have to imply that newer used cars are more reliable than older used cars, which would cause the supply of cars in the market to saturate more quickly, thus causing less demand for new cars. Not sure if that's true but it seems reasonable.
- b112 2y agoThis graph shows 2023 only. Even in 2024 there were still some production issues coming out of the covid years. 2023 had lots of issues. So it's unclear what's actually going to happen, if normal markets resume. (At least in North America, the car manufacturing market will go bananas soon with new tariffs)
- rconti 2y agoPresumably 2024 will also be bad due to interest rates. But, of course, that doesn't say anything about "real" demand.
- _ea1k 2y agoI doubt total sales have peaked. Economic growth and population growth will likely keep that going up. But EVs are eating enough market share that combustion cars are likely never climbing past their peak again.
- killerpopiller 2y agonot necessarily, people in dense urban areas rely on other transportations at least in EU
- chgs 2y agoEU is a tiny portion of the global population (as is America) But you’re right, increasing urbanisation globally leads to more public transport which offsets countries getting richer.
- mpreda 2y ago> Economic growth and population growth will likely keep that going up. What population growth?
- rsynnott 2y agoAbout 70 million per year at the moment. Current estimates have world population peaking in 2080.
- psychoslave 2y agoCertainly not all estimates, right? We can certainly suppose different scenarios, with a large specter from humanity total disappearance to discovery of star gates technology opening plenty of inhabitable world without any actual alien threat existing in the outerspace. Also there can be wide gap in evolution from one government influence zone to an other, even at very small region scale — think Haiti and The Dominican Republic. https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/07/1151971 https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/07/1151971
- 2y ago