4 ms·

Might be a silly question but considering the tensions between US and EU right now... What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell t

Might be a silly question but considering the tensions between US and EU right now... What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies? I don't know enough to even speculate on these wild scenarios

Detrytus 2y ago
US has many military bases across EU, after such hostile act they might as well take control over the Netherlands
- DeathArrow 2y ago
  LOL. Do you think a few thousand soldiers can beat a country's military? And what makes you think EU countries won't kick out US soldiers until then?
- alienthrowaway 2y ago
  How big do you think those bases are, exactly? They are reliant in the host country.
- qalmakka 2y ago
  It's a bit naive to expect US bases in Europe to still be there in the next 20 years. First, Trump clearly wants to pull out of Europe, because the current Republican party has basically no interest in Europe whatsoever (and it may even be seen as an enemy by them - it's the embodiment of all the "social state" fears they harbour). Second, if the US stop cooperating with the EU on security and forces Europe to rearm, they would probably become redundant and an easy target for populist movements - especially when Trump is out and will be replaced by a less appealing figure. Meloni, ... won't be able to sell Trump as a role model to their voters for long if he really plans on fucking up the European economy; if there's little to be gained it's easier for populists and nationalist in general to just paint him as an enemy. As a European there's been a lingering feeling of anti-Americanism in Europe that's been somewhat dormant for the last 30 years. It's clearly awakening now, and it risks going mainstream too, which would basically make the position of US bases untenable unless there's a direct reward for them (like, having security guarantees)
- Cthulhu_ 2y ago
  Sure, but they'd turn the world against them. Or at least all of Europe. It'd be trivial to disable ASML's production process, too - as others have commented, they rely on tons of suppliers as well as a lot of local employees and knowledge. I do love armchair hypotheticals like that, but a few seconds of thinking will show that a hostile takeover of the country will not mean the US retains access to ASML's machines.
wdb 2y ago
I think that won't happen as ASML relies on a bunch of patents. Now I don't think American patents are valid abroad anyways. So probably shouldn't be a concern.
- SecretDreams 2y ago
  Patents alone aren't protecting ASML or other countries would have knocked it off by now. Trade secrets drive real innovation. You only patent what you think you can profitably protect.
YetAnotherNick 2y ago
I think people give too much importance to being 1-2 generation ahead. Even if TSMC dies(slowly), it won't affect the world too much if Samsung continues to stay one generation behind with Intel likely joining them.
- namaria 2y ago
  TSMC has a massive 65% of the market. There is no way Samsung or any other player can plug that whole in terms of sheer capacity before a quite long investment cycle.
  - YetAnotherNick 2y ago
    I think funding won't be a problem. Every country and investor would want to fund next TSMC. In last 10 years TSMC production capacity increased by 5x. There's no reason why 10 years is not enough for Samsung[1]. [1]: https://www.nextplatform.com/2022/10/13/tsmc-the-leading-indicator-for-an-entire-industry/ https://www.nextplatform.com/2022/10/13/tsmc-the-leading-ind...
marbro 2y ago
[dead]
TiredOfLife 2y ago
This is me halfremembering recent comment on HN. It's structured so that the ip is owned by an American company that licenses to ASML or something like that.
- _DeadFred_ 2y ago
  Dude if Europe is stopping ASML from selling to the US Europe isn't going to be enforcing patent laws for the US.
  - jryle70 2y ago
    ASML make laser sources in San Diego, without them there would be no EUV machines. So it isn't just patents. ASML as we know today wouldn't exist without US R&D and manufacturing. https://www.asml.com/en/company/about-asml/cymer https://www.asml.com/en/company/about-asml/cymer
- perihelions 2y ago
  Was it one of these? https://hn.algolia.com/?query=asml%20llnl&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?query=asml%20llnl&type=comment
jopsen 2y ago
There are parts manufactured around the world (including the US), and the lithography machines are NOT the only step with only one vendor. US/EU economies are too intertwined to be decoupled. Just distancing the US economy from China is hard.
- Cthulhu_ 2y ago
  Sure, but the US wants to put a minimum 25% tax on imports from Europe, that'll affect these machines as well.
  - jopsen 2y ago
    Doubly so if parts imported from the US are also subject to EU tariffs. But I'm not sure how much this will affect the costs of fabs?
DeathArrow 2y ago
>What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies? That is not going to happen since ASML depends itself on some US supplied tech. What should worry EU is US building capability of their own and sabotage ASML.
procgen 2y ago
Then ASML gets Nord Stream'd.
anon291 2y ago
If that realistically happened, America would likely seize ASML assets in the United States and continue manufacture. I'm not entirely sure of the supply chain, but I'm fairly certain that ASML has significant operations and manufacturing in the United States. I'm in Portland and ASML has a large office here for obvious reasons.

Detrytus 2y ago

US has many military bases across EU, after such hostile act they might as well take control over the Netherlands

DeathArrow 2y ago
LOL. Do you think a few thousand soldiers can beat a country's military? And what makes you think EU countries won't kick out US soldiers until then?
alienthrowaway 2y ago
How big do you think those bases are, exactly? They are reliant in the host country.
qalmakka 2y ago
It's a bit naive to expect US bases in Europe to still be there in the next 20 years. First, Trump clearly wants to pull out of Europe, because the current Republican party has basically no interest in Europe whatsoever (and it may even be seen as an enemy by them - it's the embodiment of all the "social state" fears they harbour). Second, if the US stop cooperating with the EU on security and forces Europe to rearm, they would probably become redundant and an easy target for populist movements - especially when Trump is out and will be replaced by a less appealing figure. Meloni, ... won't be able to sell Trump as a role model to their voters for long if he really plans on fucking up the European economy; if there's little to be gained it's easier for populists and nationalist in general to just paint him as an enemy. As a European there's been a lingering feeling of anti-Americanism in Europe that's been somewhat dormant for the last 30 years. It's clearly awakening now, and it risks going mainstream too, which would basically make the position of US bases untenable unless there's a direct reward for them (like, having security guarantees)
Cthulhu_ 2y ago
Sure, but they'd turn the world against them. Or at least all of Europe. It'd be trivial to disable ASML's production process, too - as others have commented, they rely on tons of suppliers as well as a lot of local employees and knowledge. I do love armchair hypotheticals like that, but a few seconds of thinking will show that a hostile takeover of the country will not mean the US retains access to ASML's machines.

wdb 2y ago

I think that won't happen as ASML relies on a bunch of patents. Now I don't think American patents are valid abroad anyways. So probably shouldn't be a concern.

SecretDreams 2y ago
Patents alone aren't protecting ASML or other countries would have knocked it off by now. Trade secrets drive real innovation. You only patent what you think you can profitably protect.

YetAnotherNick 2y ago

I think people give too much importance to being 1-2 generation ahead. Even if TSMC dies(slowly), it won't affect the world too much if Samsung continues to stay one generation behind with Intel likely joining them.

namaria 2y ago
TSMC has a massive 65% of the market. There is no way Samsung or any other player can plug that whole in terms of sheer capacity before a quite long investment cycle.
- YetAnotherNick 2y ago
  I think funding won't be a problem. Every country and investor would want to fund next TSMC. In last 10 years TSMC production capacity increased by 5x. There's no reason why 10 years is not enough for Samsung[1]. [1]: https://www.nextplatform.com/2022/10/13/tsmc-the-leading-indicator-for-an-entire-industry/ https://www.nextplatform.com/2022/10/13/tsmc-the-leading-ind...

marbro 2y ago

[dead]

TiredOfLife 2y ago

This is me halfremembering recent comment on HN. It's structured so that the ip is owned by an American company that licenses to ASML or something like that.

_DeadFred_ 2y ago
Dude if Europe is stopping ASML from selling to the US Europe isn't going to be enforcing patent laws for the US.
- jryle70 2y ago
  ASML make laser sources in San Diego, without them there would be no EUV machines. So it isn't just patents. ASML as we know today wouldn't exist without US R&D and manufacturing. https://www.asml.com/en/company/about-asml/cymer https://www.asml.com/en/company/about-asml/cymer
perihelions 2y ago
Was it one of these? https://hn.algolia.com/?query=asml%20llnl&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?query=asml%20llnl&type=comment

jopsen 2y ago

There are parts manufactured around the world (including the US), and the lithography machines are NOT the only step with only one vendor. US/EU economies are too intertwined to be decoupled. Just distancing the US economy from China is hard.

Cthulhu_ 2y ago
Sure, but the US wants to put a minimum 25% tax on imports from Europe, that'll affect these machines as well.
- jopsen 2y ago
  Doubly so if parts imported from the US are also subject to EU tariffs. But I'm not sure how much this will affect the costs of fabs?

DeathArrow 2y ago

>What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies? That is not going to happen since ASML depends itself on some US supplied tech. What should worry EU is US building capability of their own and sabotage ASML.

procgen 2y ago

Then ASML gets Nord Stream'd.

anon291 2y ago

If that realistically happened, America would likely seize ASML assets in the United States and continue manufacture. I'm not entirely sure of the supply chain, but I'm fairly certain that ASML has significant operations and manufacturing in the United States. I'm in Portland and ASML has a large office here for obvious reasons.