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The people of Belarus put this to test not that long ago. Massive numbers of people came out, factories went on strike, even people from the military and police

The people of Belarus put this to test not that long ago. Massive numbers of people came out, factories went on strike, even people from the military and police spoke out against the regime. Turned out that in this day and age when the governments have unprecedented powers of surveillance and the ability to cut anyone from the respective financial system, a revolution is a really hard thing to pull off. If the British had the kind of power that even half-competent governments have today, the American revolution would never have succeeded.

DecoySalamander 2y ago
You have to both outnumber the loyalists to certain degree and show significant determination. Euromaidan did that with 800,000 protesters at its peak. As a percentage of the population that's less than what Belarus saw, but at the same time Yanukovych had significantly fewer people willing to do his bidding than Lukashenko.
- FirmwareBurner 2y ago
  >Euromaidan did that with 800,000 protesters at its peak. Euromaidan succeeded because it also had massive support and influence from the western powers and from the western(mostly US) itelligence agencies to make the pro-Russian regime change happen. Similar to the fall of the Berlin wall and the fall of communism in Eastern Europe, it was a decades long effort from the US itelligence agencies, they didn't just sit around and wait for the local population to revolt. People ignore how much external interference these revolutions get in order to make regime changes happen.
  - jgilias 2y ago
    I was following the events very closely. The most obvious foreign interference I saw was Russian spetznaz being brought in as reinforcements to try and suppress tbe protests for longer.
    - FirmwareBurner 2y ago
      Yeah obviously, but I never claimed there wasn't interference from both sides since Russia would be stupid not to have interfered, but it's not like CIA, who also would have been stupid not to have interfered, wears high visibility vests with their org's logo while on duty abroad or posts their ops on Wikipedia for everyone to see. If the public knew everything the CIA was doing, they would be not very good at their job. Stuff like this is usually declassified only 50+ years later or sometimes never. So please, let's not use the "I've only seen Russian agents in the streets but not CIA" as some sort of argument since that insults everyone's intelligence.
      - jgilias 2y ago
        Agree! I’m not saying CIA (or whichever other three letter agency) were not involved in any way. But the way I see this, if I was out in the streets trying to get rid of a pro-Russian stooge making my country an autocratic puppet regime, I would be thankful to whomever is paying for the tea, or helping in any other way.
chii 2y ago
> the ability to cut anyone from the respective financial system not only that, but to sniff out those with whom they transacted. This causes a chilling effect, because secondary sanctions cause just as much harm. It's also why i am against removal of cash based, anonymous transactions. It is needed, so that the state cannot cut off citizens at their whim.
tonyhart7 2y ago
" half-competent governments have today, the American revolution would never have succeeded." tbh British empire at that time still has Canada,India,Australia and not counting 'small size' territory they has, Yes they can supress American Revolt absolutely but it would be a burden and not cost effective at the same time. colonies is bussiness after all if they can't produce wealth then why fought so hard to defend this land???
- jgilias 2y ago
  What I meant was that they wouldn’t need to suppress much. They’d just AML the leaders of the independence movement to poverty.
IsTom 2y ago
Belarusian protests were doing well until putin brought his own riot police to help.
dumbledoren 2y ago
> The people of Belarus put this to test not that long ago. Massive numbers of people came out, factories went on strike, even people from the military and police spoke out against the regime. Did they, though... The Western media depicts all color revolutions as such movements, complete with 'the military speaking out'. They did the same in Venezuela and other places. The 'military guys speaking out' turned out to be Colombian mercenaries who put on the wrong Venezuelan army uniform and whatnot.
- jgilias 2y ago
  They did yeah. There was this whole hashtag-like thing on Telegram where people who had a regime uniform in their wardrobe would stuff it in the trash. It was mostly demobilised conscripts, policemen, and such. There was also one high ranking retired officer who openly spoke out against the regime, who’s in exile now. Having written that, so yes and no. As in, I don’t think there were many (any?) active service members. That likely would’ve been very dangerous. But people who had close and recent ties with the military, so could be expected to be regime loyalists, yes, plenty. EDIT: I never follow Ukraine, Russia, or Belarus on “Western media”. I read Russian, so I follow a bunch of Telegram channels from those countries. The protests in Belarus were basically covered live.
  - dumbledoren 2y ago
    > There was this whole hashtag-like thing on Telegram where people who had a regime uniform in their wardrobe would stuff it in the trash. That's SO very different than every other color revolution, including the ones the US attempted in Cuba by creating a fake twitter.
mmooss 2y ago
One thing the 'reactionaries' (anti-revolutionaries) do is spread propaganda of powerlessness. I'm not saying you are doing it intentionally, but they do it for a reason.
- jgilias 2y ago
  I’m not doing it intentionally, and I do see your point! Thanks for calling it out, gives me some food for thought.

DecoySalamander 2y ago

You have to both outnumber the loyalists to certain degree and show significant determination. Euromaidan did that with 800,000 protesters at its peak. As a percentage of the population that's less than what Belarus saw, but at the same time Yanukovych had significantly fewer people willing to do his bidding than Lukashenko.

FirmwareBurner 2y ago
>Euromaidan did that with 800,000 protesters at its peak. Euromaidan succeeded because it also had massive support and influence from the western powers and from the western(mostly US) itelligence agencies to make the pro-Russian regime change happen. Similar to the fall of the Berlin wall and the fall of communism in Eastern Europe, it was a decades long effort from the US itelligence agencies, they didn't just sit around and wait for the local population to revolt. People ignore how much external interference these revolutions get in order to make regime changes happen.
- jgilias 2y ago
  I was following the events very closely. The most obvious foreign interference I saw was Russian spetznaz being brought in as reinforcements to try and suppress tbe protests for longer.
  - FirmwareBurner 2y ago
    Yeah obviously, but I never claimed there wasn't interference from both sides since Russia would be stupid not to have interfered, but it's not like CIA, who also would have been stupid not to have interfered, wears high visibility vests with their org's logo while on duty abroad or posts their ops on Wikipedia for everyone to see. If the public knew everything the CIA was doing, they would be not very good at their job. Stuff like this is usually declassified only 50+ years later or sometimes never. So please, let's not use the "I've only seen Russian agents in the streets but not CIA" as some sort of argument since that insults everyone's intelligence.
    - jgilias 2y ago
      Agree! I’m not saying CIA (or whichever other three letter agency) were not involved in any way. But the way I see this, if I was out in the streets trying to get rid of a pro-Russian stooge making my country an autocratic puppet regime, I would be thankful to whomever is paying for the tea, or helping in any other way.

chii 2y ago

> the ability to cut anyone from the respective financial system not only that, but to sniff out those with whom they transacted. This causes a chilling effect, because secondary sanctions cause just as much harm. It's also why i am against removal of cash based, anonymous transactions. It is needed, so that the state cannot cut off citizens at their whim.

tonyhart7 2y ago

" half-competent governments have today, the American revolution would never have succeeded." tbh British empire at that time still has Canada,India,Australia and not counting 'small size' territory they has, Yes they can supress American Revolt absolutely but it would be a burden and not cost effective at the same time. colonies is bussiness after all if they can't produce wealth then why fought so hard to defend this land???

jgilias 2y ago
What I meant was that they wouldn’t need to suppress much. They’d just AML the leaders of the independence movement to poverty.

IsTom 2y ago

Belarusian protests were doing well until putin brought his own riot police to help.

dumbledoren 2y ago

> The people of Belarus put this to test not that long ago. Massive numbers of people came out, factories went on strike, even people from the military and police spoke out against the regime. Did they, though... The Western media depicts all color revolutions as such movements, complete with 'the military speaking out'. They did the same in Venezuela and other places. The 'military guys speaking out' turned out to be Colombian mercenaries who put on the wrong Venezuelan army uniform and whatnot.

jgilias 2y ago
They did yeah. There was this whole hashtag-like thing on Telegram where people who had a regime uniform in their wardrobe would stuff it in the trash. It was mostly demobilised conscripts, policemen, and such. There was also one high ranking retired officer who openly spoke out against the regime, who’s in exile now. Having written that, so yes and no. As in, I don’t think there were many (any?) active service members. That likely would’ve been very dangerous. But people who had close and recent ties with the military, so could be expected to be regime loyalists, yes, plenty. EDIT: I never follow Ukraine, Russia, or Belarus on “Western media”. I read Russian, so I follow a bunch of Telegram channels from those countries. The protests in Belarus were basically covered live.
- dumbledoren 2y ago
  > There was this whole hashtag-like thing on Telegram where people who had a regime uniform in their wardrobe would stuff it in the trash. That's SO very different than every other color revolution, including the ones the US attempted in Cuba by creating a fake twitter.

mmooss 2y ago

One thing the 'reactionaries' (anti-revolutionaries) do is spread propaganda of powerlessness. I'm not saying you are doing it intentionally, but they do it for a reason.

jgilias 2y ago
I’m not doing it intentionally, and I do see your point! Thanks for calling it out, gives me some food for thought.