4 ms·

Belarus had 500.000 people show up. But they got beat down. Hong Kong had millions of people show up. But it just led to massive crackdowns. Numbers mean nothin

Belarus had 500.000 people show up. But they got beat down. Hong Kong had millions of people show up. But it just led to massive crackdowns. Numbers mean nothing when the guys who own the guns are not on your side.

matwood 2y ago
> Numbers mean nothing when the guys who own the guns are not on your side. Not saying it will turn out differently, but there are more guns circulating in the US than there are people. Nearly everyone has or can easily get access to a gun. US culture is also quite a bit different, celebrating violence, don't tread on me, etc... Again, it might not make a difference, but I'm not sure those other situations are comparable. Something else to note is that military officers swear an oath the constitution, not POTUS (like enlisted do). Asking someone to order or to shoot fellow Americans, particularly if unarmed, would definitely be a test. If something like that did happen, we would be entering a second civil war.
- sigmoid10 2y ago
  If it actually does come to a new civil war, my money is still on whoever owns most of the military. Small arms are nice and well, but they don't help you a lot when the other guy has got APCs and tanks.
  - matwood 2y ago
    I think it would be an open question as to which side ends up owning most of the military. Bases are all over the US along with national guard. The people in the military are also a pretty diverse group. In a civil war situation I don’t think it would be an automatic siding with DC.
    - sigmoid10 2y ago
      One of the reasons the military has so many independent branches is that it would take all of them to rebel and join the opposing side in order to win. It's impossible to tell how they would side in a real internal conflict and the whole apparatus probably has to break down first before they will ever officially take sides of a force that opposes the federal government. At that point there will be total chaos and the wealthiest people can once again swoop in, amass the most powerful force and take over.
  - esseph 2y ago
    It's always the people who have never fought in a war that say things like this. APCs take fuel, require men to run, and need tires or tracks. For $10 worth of chemicals or a little bit of camouflage and some earth work you can make the APC irrelevant very quickly. Happened in Iraq all the time. The US military and its members have spent almost 25 years fighting through insurgencies. There are millions of combat vets.
    - esseph 2y ago
      (If you spend a lot of time learning to fight against an insurgency, you also spend a lot of time learning how to wage one against a technologically superior force.)
  - mmooss 2y ago
    In the US's two most recent wars, the people with small arms outlasted the US military. It happened in 3 of the 5 U.S. wars since WWII, and in the other two there was nobody with small arms.
- esseph 2y ago
  Enlisted swear to defend the constitution first, in order of precedence. This is the way it is commonly understood.
6510 2y ago
But when they are it is easy and simple. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Traor%C3%A9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Traor%C3%A9 https://youtu.be/wq14Vrz7ax0?t=73 https://youtu.be/wq14Vrz7ax0?t=73 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brice_Oligui_Nguema https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brice_Oligui_Nguema https://youtu.be/4JU1W6dep_8?t=400 https://youtu.be/4JU1W6dep_8?t=400

matwood 2y ago

> Numbers mean nothing when the guys who own the guns are not on your side. Not saying it will turn out differently, but there are more guns circulating in the US than there are people. Nearly everyone has or can easily get access to a gun. US culture is also quite a bit different, celebrating violence, don't tread on me, etc... Again, it might not make a difference, but I'm not sure those other situations are comparable. Something else to note is that military officers swear an oath the constitution, not POTUS (like enlisted do). Asking someone to order or to shoot fellow Americans, particularly if unarmed, would definitely be a test. If something like that did happen, we would be entering a second civil war.

sigmoid10 2y ago
If it actually does come to a new civil war, my money is still on whoever owns most of the military. Small arms are nice and well, but they don't help you a lot when the other guy has got APCs and tanks.
- matwood 2y ago
  I think it would be an open question as to which side ends up owning most of the military. Bases are all over the US along with national guard. The people in the military are also a pretty diverse group. In a civil war situation I don’t think it would be an automatic siding with DC.
  - sigmoid10 2y ago
    One of the reasons the military has so many independent branches is that it would take all of them to rebel and join the opposing side in order to win. It's impossible to tell how they would side in a real internal conflict and the whole apparatus probably has to break down first before they will ever officially take sides of a force that opposes the federal government. At that point there will be total chaos and the wealthiest people can once again swoop in, amass the most powerful force and take over.
- esseph 2y ago
  It's always the people who have never fought in a war that say things like this. APCs take fuel, require men to run, and need tires or tracks. For $10 worth of chemicals or a little bit of camouflage and some earth work you can make the APC irrelevant very quickly. Happened in Iraq all the time. The US military and its members have spent almost 25 years fighting through insurgencies. There are millions of combat vets.
  - esseph 2y ago
    (If you spend a lot of time learning to fight against an insurgency, you also spend a lot of time learning how to wage one against a technologically superior force.)
- mmooss 2y ago
  In the US's two most recent wars, the people with small arms outlasted the US military. It happened in 3 of the 5 U.S. wars since WWII, and in the other two there was nobody with small arms.
esseph 2y ago
Enlisted swear to defend the constitution first, in order of precedence. This is the way it is commonly understood.

6510 2y ago

But when they are it is easy and simple. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Traor%C3%A9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Traor%C3%A9 https://youtu.be/wq14Vrz7ax0?t=73 https://youtu.be/wq14Vrz7ax0?t=73 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brice_Oligui_Nguema https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brice_Oligui_Nguema https://youtu.be/4JU1W6dep_8?t=400 https://youtu.be/4JU1W6dep_8?t=400