5 ms·

I’m seriously concerned that the market is going you crater in the next year, do what is the rational investment strategy? Trust Buffett and buy BRKB? Try to

I’m seriously concerned that the market is going you crater in the next year, do what is the rational investment strategy? Trust Buffett and buy BRKB? Try to weather the storm with VOO? Buy treasury bonds?

Terr_ 2y ago
I'm just a humble index-fund-liker who tries to avoid checking things more than once a month, but I'd like to add an observation: Employed people should consider their own job-sector as something to diversify against. In other words, don't be like those poor Enron employees who had all of their company 401k tied up in Enron stock. If your nest-egg craters but you have a job, you can sustain yourself and wait for market recovery. If your job vanishes, strong investments won't get hurt too much if you sell to cover the gap. However, if both happen simultaneously...
- orwin 2y ago
  Weirdly, if you work in tech, that would be energy companies I guess?
  - Jtsummers 2y ago
    Diversify for a potential tech sector decline would not mean investing in energy companies. The investment in energy companies is largely driven by the tech sector. If you think the tech sector (particularly the AI portions and possibly cloud hosting depending on what foreign companies and other nations do) are at risk, then so are their investments in the energy sector.
DamnYuppie 2y ago
The fear indexes for Stocks and Crypto are near highs, which historically signals buying opportunities rather than reasons to panic. The old adage "be greedy when others are fearful" holds true, backed by market history. More money has been lost trying to time the market than simply staying invested. If this is long-term savings/investing, staying in the market is almost always the best move. If it’s short-term money, it shouldn’t be in stocks anyway. For short-term capital, treasuries and cash-equivalents are safer plays.
daveguy 2y ago
Tell your representatives to get their head out of their asses? Democrats: why aren't you more engaged with this? Republicans: How did lowering grocery prices turn into dismantling the services of our government, kissing Putin's rear, and daydreaming about Trump Hotel Gaza? Also, let your friends, family, and loved ones know how you feel.
- Terr_ 2y ago
  > Democrats: why aren't you more engaged with this? They have minorities in both houses, and the Republican majority is currently refusing to impeach the president for seizing unconstitutional powers to do things that they want to see done. This has shattered any sane legislative process: Even if legislators reach a compromise and pass a new law, Republicans will just ignore the parts they strongly dislike. Again.
  - daveguy 2y ago
    Yeah, I know. It's a shit show. I was just throwing the only frustration I have -- that every one of the Democrats aren't going on Fox "News" (or other distribution outlets) every night to argue. But I was talking more about the Democrats and everyone else who recognizes the problem. I'm just surprised I can still contact my representatives by phone. Maybe more are calling than I realize and they just fixed the "full voicemail" problem. My R house rep hasn't held a town hall in his district since 2017.
- Paradigma11 2y ago
  The problem for the Democrats is on the one hand they just have to wait for Trump to crater everything and then take over or they could work against it and be blamed for preventing the Trumpish golden age.
  - daveguy 2y ago
    That's a good point. It's amazing what a $44 billion propaganda platform and a quarter billion in cash can buy you. Fortunately there are still a lot of alternatives. Don't think they can keep papering over it for 4 or even 2 years.
chairmansteve 2y ago
Cash or treasury bonds, if you believe the thesis.
- Terr_ 2y ago
  https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bond-traders-waver-trump-questions-us-government-debt-figures-2025-02-10/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bond-traders-wav...
MilnerRoute 2y ago
If you seriously believe the market is going to crater, save up some money to snatch up bargains in the aftermath.
- etrautmann 2y ago
  That’s an easy way to sit on the sidelines for a decade as the market doubles. I thankfully stayed invested while my tax accountant suggested selling all my stock in 2019…
slashdev 2y ago
The market might still end up for the year, it will just be a more volatile year. It would be very unlikely to see another double digit gains year in a row. That being said, it could also crash hard and not recover to these levels for a decade. There is lots of historical precedence for that - especially at these valuations. I’m chiefly concerned about tariffs, housing market weakness, labor market weakness, and reversing global liquidity flows (maybe by the end of the year). Just chilling in mostly gold and treasuries is looking very attractive on a risk adjusted basis.
- thfuran 2y ago
  Or it could be down for many decades. The Nikkei 225 is only just this year reaching where it was in 1989.
  - slashdev 2y ago
    Exactly. The stock market only got back to the highs of 1929, in inflation adjusted terms by 1960. So worst case, it can take 30 years or more to recover. Japan took even longer.
    - thfuran 2y ago
      Worst case, the current stupidity fully cements US's fall from hegemony, moves the world away from USD as a reserve currency, reverses global brain drain to US, and the economy never recovers.
bdangubic 2y ago
tsla ftw :)
tim333 2y ago
In the dot com bubble buying BRK worked well. It bottomed on the same day the NASDAQ peaked.

Terr_ 2y ago

I'm just a humble index-fund-liker who tries to avoid checking things more than once a month, but I'd like to add an observation: Employed people should consider their own job-sector as something to diversify against. In other words, don't be like those poor Enron employees who had all of their company 401k tied up in Enron stock. If your nest-egg craters but you have a job, you can sustain yourself and wait for market recovery. If your job vanishes, strong investments won't get hurt too much if you sell to cover the gap. However, if both happen simultaneously...

orwin 2y ago
Weirdly, if you work in tech, that would be energy companies I guess?
- Jtsummers 2y ago
  Diversify for a potential tech sector decline would not mean investing in energy companies. The investment in energy companies is largely driven by the tech sector. If you think the tech sector (particularly the AI portions and possibly cloud hosting depending on what foreign companies and other nations do) are at risk, then so are their investments in the energy sector.

DamnYuppie 2y ago

The fear indexes for Stocks and Crypto are near highs, which historically signals buying opportunities rather than reasons to panic. The old adage "be greedy when others are fearful" holds true, backed by market history. More money has been lost trying to time the market than simply staying invested. If this is long-term savings/investing, staying in the market is almost always the best move. If it’s short-term money, it shouldn’t be in stocks anyway. For short-term capital, treasuries and cash-equivalents are safer plays.

daveguy 2y ago

Tell your representatives to get their head out of their asses? Democrats: why aren't you more engaged with this? Republicans: How did lowering grocery prices turn into dismantling the services of our government, kissing Putin's rear, and daydreaming about Trump Hotel Gaza? Also, let your friends, family, and loved ones know how you feel.

Terr_ 2y ago
> Democrats: why aren't you more engaged with this? They have minorities in both houses, and the Republican majority is currently refusing to impeach the president for seizing unconstitutional powers to do things that they want to see done. This has shattered any sane legislative process: Even if legislators reach a compromise and pass a new law, Republicans will just ignore the parts they strongly dislike. Again.
- daveguy 2y ago
  Yeah, I know. It's a shit show. I was just throwing the only frustration I have -- that every one of the Democrats aren't going on Fox "News" (or other distribution outlets) every night to argue. But I was talking more about the Democrats and everyone else who recognizes the problem. I'm just surprised I can still contact my representatives by phone. Maybe more are calling than I realize and they just fixed the "full voicemail" problem. My R house rep hasn't held a town hall in his district since 2017.
Paradigma11 2y ago
The problem for the Democrats is on the one hand they just have to wait for Trump to crater everything and then take over or they could work against it and be blamed for preventing the Trumpish golden age.
- daveguy 2y ago
  That's a good point. It's amazing what a $44 billion propaganda platform and a quarter billion in cash can buy you. Fortunately there are still a lot of alternatives. Don't think they can keep papering over it for 4 or even 2 years.

chairmansteve 2y ago

Cash or treasury bonds, if you believe the thesis.

Terr_ 2y ago
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bond-traders-waver-trump-questions-us-government-debt-figures-2025-02-10/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bond-traders-wav...

MilnerRoute 2y ago

If you seriously believe the market is going to crater, save up some money to snatch up bargains in the aftermath.

etrautmann 2y ago
That’s an easy way to sit on the sidelines for a decade as the market doubles. I thankfully stayed invested while my tax accountant suggested selling all my stock in 2019…

slashdev 2y ago

The market might still end up for the year, it will just be a more volatile year. It would be very unlikely to see another double digit gains year in a row. That being said, it could also crash hard and not recover to these levels for a decade. There is lots of historical precedence for that - especially at these valuations. I’m chiefly concerned about tariffs, housing market weakness, labor market weakness, and reversing global liquidity flows (maybe by the end of the year). Just chilling in mostly gold and treasuries is looking very attractive on a risk adjusted basis.

thfuran 2y ago
Or it could be down for many decades. The Nikkei 225 is only just this year reaching where it was in 1989.
- slashdev 2y ago
  Exactly. The stock market only got back to the highs of 1929, in inflation adjusted terms by 1960. So worst case, it can take 30 years or more to recover. Japan took even longer.
  - thfuran 2y ago
    Worst case, the current stupidity fully cements US's fall from hegemony, moves the world away from USD as a reserve currency, reverses global brain drain to US, and the economy never recovers.

bdangubic 2y ago

tsla ftw :)

tim333 2y ago

In the dot com bubble buying BRK worked well. It bottomed on the same day the NASDAQ peaked.