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A good macro economist I follow who called the spy 350 bottom and this entire runup back when everyone was bearish has been saying we are in a have vs have not

by jarsin 2y ago

A good macro economist I follow who called the spy 350 bottom and this entire runup back when everyone was bearish has been saying we are in a have vs have not economy since covid. And that is in part what drives the markets higher and higher. Majority are bearish and skittish but economic numbers keep printing like everyone is flush. He is calling for a blow off top followed by a deflationary bust fwiw.

pinkmuffinere 2y ago
TLDR: your guy is probably overconfident about his prediction. Even if your guy is actually super brilliant, and not over-confident, there’s no way for us to verify that. Therefore there’s no good reason to trust him more than average. Unfortunately these kind of predictions are impossible to trust, even if the predictor is known to make good calls. Michael Bury called the 2008 financial crisis and made a killing off of it. Since then he’s been periodically predicting a water-scarcity-driven recession, deleting and undeleting his twitter every couple of years. It never happens. Even the best economist can’t predict the timing of these things. If somebody believes they _can_, that just makes me suspect that they’re not wise enough to know they can’t predict it, and probably aren’t very skilled. Or maybe they’ll be the first to get it right — but how could I confirm that, without blind faith?
- jarsin 2y ago
  The difference between him and Burry is his macro forecast doesn't change. Actually watching guys like Burry grasp at straws after they got one big one right is in large part why I am an even bigger believer in this forecast. For example Trump and tarrifs have nothing to do with his forecast whatsoever. It's a long term macro forecast that trumps presidents etc.
- immibis 2y ago
  On any given day there are probably a thousand reasons the economy should fall apart tomorrow, and yet somehow it doesn't. Sometimes someone calls out one of the reasons on the exact day it falls apart tomorrow, and they feel like a god, but they just got lucky.
  - pinkmuffinere 2y ago
    Coincidentally this is a very concise summary of the book "Fooled By Randomness". Bet you didn't know you were writing a book summary, but sometimes it just happens by chance :)
logicalfails 2y ago
What is his name? Or are you referring to the author of the article linked?
- jarsin 2y ago
  David Hunter https://x.com/DaveHcontrarian/with_replies https://x.com/DaveHcontrarian/with_replies

by jarsin 2y ago

pinkmuffinere 2y ago

TLDR: your guy is probably overconfident about his prediction. Even if your guy is actually super brilliant, and not over-confident, there’s no way for us to verify that. Therefore there’s no good reason to trust him more than average. Unfortunately these kind of predictions are impossible to trust, even if the predictor is known to make good calls. Michael Bury called the 2008 financial crisis and made a killing off of it. Since then he’s been periodically predicting a water-scarcity-driven recession, deleting and undeleting his twitter every couple of years. It never happens. Even the best economist can’t predict the timing of these things. If somebody believes they _can_, that just makes me suspect that they’re not wise enough to know they can’t predict it, and probably aren’t very skilled. Or maybe they’ll be the first to get it right — but how could I confirm that, without blind faith?

jarsin 2y ago
The difference between him and Burry is his macro forecast doesn't change. Actually watching guys like Burry grasp at straws after they got one big one right is in large part why I am an even bigger believer in this forecast. For example Trump and tarrifs have nothing to do with his forecast whatsoever. It's a long term macro forecast that trumps presidents etc.
immibis 2y ago
On any given day there are probably a thousand reasons the economy should fall apart tomorrow, and yet somehow it doesn't. Sometimes someone calls out one of the reasons on the exact day it falls apart tomorrow, and they feel like a god, but they just got lucky.
- pinkmuffinere 2y ago
  Coincidentally this is a very concise summary of the book "Fooled By Randomness". Bet you didn't know you were writing a book summary, but sometimes it just happens by chance :)

logicalfails 2y ago

What is his name? Or are you referring to the author of the article linked?

jarsin 2y ago
David Hunter https://x.com/DaveHcontrarian/with_replies https://x.com/DaveHcontrarian/with_replies