"AGI" has always referred to something a lot closer to your "next big trick" than an LLM. An AGI is a program that can slot into anywhere a human fits and do as

"AGI" has always referred to something a lot closer to your "next big trick" than an LLM. An AGI is a program that can slot into anywhere a human fits and do as well as a human would; GPT-4 or Claude can't do that. I do think it's true that anyone a decade ago would have predicted their capabilities are impossible without AGI, which suggests that the entire conceptual framework is less useful than we thought. The eventual debate about whether we've "reached AGI" will probably have a lot more to do with the contract between OpenAI and Microsoft than any real paradigm shift in capabilities.