4 ms·

But this is not a card game, they can just build and ship these machines. IP and licenses are made up stuff to facilitate certain business transactions. You can

by mrtksn 2y ago

But this is not a card game, they can just build and ship these machines. IP and licenses are made up stuff to facilitate certain business transactions. You can just disregard those if you no longer care about those business ties. What USA will do? Send China DMCA complaint to tear down their ASML machines?

alephnerd 2y ago
> What USA will do In this unrealistic worst case, shut down the ability for ASML to raise any sort of capital by litigating in just about every market, threaten $60B in Dutch exports to the US, and threaten felony status for much of ASML, Philips, and NXP's leadership. Oh and nationalize Cymer LLC, as the manufacturing and IP for ASML's EUV work is in ASML's US Subsidary (Cymer llc [0]), not the Dutch parent that's a spinoff of NXP and Philips [0] - https://www.cymer.com/ https://www.cymer.com/
- mrtksn 2y ago
  I'm not convinced that legal structures can do anything between hostile countries. If that was possible they could have just sue Russia and get the war sorted out.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    The ASML parent in Netherlands doesn't have access to the IP or manufacturing. It's all part of the US holding in San Diego (Cymer LLC).
    - mrtksn 2y ago
      What do you mean they don't have access? Maybe they kept copy of the technical documents and just keep building the machine and send them to China and not send them to USA?
      - alephnerd 2y ago
        ASML is a HOLDING company. National Labs are part of the US Defense apparatus and have massive compliance and firewalling requirements, and constant audits. Any attempt by ASML Holdings to exfiltrate data and IP from Cymer LLC (a DoE contractor) opens ASML leadership to criminal charges, and makes them toxic in any deal. It might not matter to you, but it absolutely puts the Dutch economy at risk. And anyhow, all the manufacturing is done in San Diego and Livermore anyhow.
        mrtksn 2y ago
        These things are important only at peacetime. Also, some parts being made in USA only means that they need to find a new supplier and if that doesn't exist then can help someone to figure it out. USA is an important partner but nothing is more important than the wellbeing of the immediate neighboring countries because USA is actually a distant 5th trading partner for the Dutch with less than %5 of the trade, it is as about as important as Italy. You can't have prosperous Netherlands with struggling Europe.
        alephnerd 2y ago
        The manufacturing for the EUV portions of EUV Lithography machines built and sold by ASML is done entirely in America (SoCal area) by an autonomous subsidiary (Cymer) that is a partnership with a National Lab. As a result, the Dutch portion has limited access to the intricacies. I don't know why this isn't getting into your head.
        gtirloni 2y ago
        > And anyhow, all the manufacturing is done in San Diego and Livermore anyhow Could you define "all"? From your comment it seems all stories about ASML having a quasi-monopoly in lithography machines are nonsense. So it's the US holding the chip cards? That makes the China vs Taiwan debacle even less important to the US, since there's nothing to worry about.
        alephnerd 2y ago
    - surgical_fire 2y ago
      IPs only matter when both countries agree that they matter. In the eventuality that the US is seen as a foreign hostile country by EU members, which seems increasingly likely, those IPs do not need to be respected anymore. Unless your argument is that "EU chimps cannot figure out how to do lithography thenselves". Then I'll have a very hard time to take your argument seriously.
      - alephnerd 2y ago
        > In the eventuality that the US is seen as a foreign hostile country by EU members, which seems increasingly likely First, I absolutely think Trump and Vance's conduct was horrid. That said, even after the past 2 weeks, European states are hesitant to provide boots on the ground to Ukraine [0][1]. Online (especially on English speaking Reddit and HN) there is strong support to help Ukraine, yet it seems individual members of European states do not wish to truly commit to Ukraine, due to political implications. If even Poland [1] does not want to provide boots on the ground, and Germany and France still want US boots on the ground in order for them to commit to Ukraine [1], then there is a fundamental problem with Ukraine's current posture. Even if Harris was president today, a similar outcome would have happened. As I have stated multiple times before, I don't think Europeans on Reddit/HN realize that China is the bigger issue for the US, not Russia (European leadership does recognize this and is trying to accommodate the US as such - look at the UK and Türkiye's commitment to Ukraine over the past decade). We have no actual defense in depth in the Pacific and have seen this first hand in WW2 with the Japanese invasion of American Philippines and Alaska and much more recently during both the SCS Standoff and Senkaku Diaoyu, but our allies in Europe can provide that for us in Russia. Nor do we expect our European allies except France (because of French Polynesia and Mayotte) to help us in a Indo-Pacific War If WW3 does happen, there will be no American soldiers in Kirkenes, we will be in the Kinmen Islands > Unless your argument is that "EU chimps cannot figure out how to do lithography thenselves". Then I'll have a very hard time to take your argument seriously. Europe (and China, South Korea, Japan, India, etc) absolutely can. Question is over what time period (2 years, 5 years, 10 years?). There needs to be a united "Europe" but there really isn't. When push comes to shove, European states devolve into bickering with each other because diametrically opposed interests. If an Obama 2 era Dem staffer like me is ticked off, then you should realize your leadership has burned any goodwill that remains in the American NatSec space. The Koreans and Taiwanese tick us off, but at least we know they will fight if push comes to shove. The only European states with a similar resolve are France, UK, Turkiye, Poland, Netherlands, and maybe Romania. We warned your leadership that an American president like Trump would eventually come, yet your leaders did not listen. At least your leadership recognizes this now, but has to work overtime because the Trump admin are incompetent at messaging. It will be better for both the US and our European allies if Germany, Netherlands, etc adopt a France+UK style policy of strategic autonomy. Maybe include Turkiye while you're at it otherwise they will make Balkan and Caucasus Integration impossible ---------- Also, none of the above sidesteps the fact that 20% of ASML's personnel is in the US, and ASML's light source technology (the primary part used for EUV and DUV) is manufactured and innovated by an JV in San Diego between ASML and Livermore Labs. [0] - https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/aid-ukraine-us-trump-zelensky-bbm899rln https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/ai... [1] - https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-leader-donald-trump-ukraine-peace-deal-emmanuel-macron-presidential-palace-donald-tusk/ https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-leader-donald-trump-...
- gtirloni 2y ago
  China would be salivating at the prospect of getting these machines that EU can't/won't sell to the US. I don't understand why Trump is so anxious to be buddies with Putin when Russia is aligned with China. It's feeling like an oligarch's world where under the table deals are what matters and the nationalist rhetoric is just a smoke screen.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    > China would be salivating at the prospect of getting these machines that EU can't/won't sell to the US The EUV portion of the machines are made in the US - it's manufactured by ASML's subsidiary Cymer, down in SoCal.
marcosdumay 2y ago
At some point, we start to talk about military action. It's not clear where the current US government will draw the line, and they would be crazy to draw the line at IP licensing... but well, I have some bad news. I have absolutely no idea what is the Trump's (or Musk's, or whoever is calling the shots) endgame is. There is the chance that military action is inevitable. It's really bad either way.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  Also, the entire EUV portion of ASML is owned and manufactured by Cymer in San Diego. They are part of ASML, but firewalled from the rest due to DoE and Federal Contractor requirements.
  - iszomer 2y ago
    It' really interesting to see how interconnected supply chains work. Query: who are ASML's subsidiaries? // 1. Cymer (Acquired in 2013) A U.S.-based company specializing in EUV and DUV light sources. Cymer provides the laser-produced plasma (LPP) EUV sources used in ASML's EUV scanners. 2. Berliner Glas (Acquired in 2020) A German company specializing in high-precision optical components. Helps ASML develop optical lenses and mirrors for lithography machines. 3. HMI (Hermes Microvision, Acquired in 2016) A Taiwanese company focusing on e-beam inspection and metrology. Enables ASML to enhance defect detection in semiconductor manufacturing. 4. Carl Zeiss SMT (Strategic Partner, Not Owned) ASML has a strategic partnership with Carl Zeiss SMT, which supplies high-precision optics and mirrors used in EUV systems. While ASML doesn’t own Carl Zeiss, it invested heavily in their R&D for EUV optics. //
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      Yep! And ASML Holdings itself is a spinoff of NXP Semiconductors (primarily legacy nodes used in aerospace and automotive - VERY mission critical), which itself is a merger of the older Motorola Semiconductor division which landed us on the moon as well as Philips N.V.
MangoCoffee 2y ago
>What USA will do? FAFO.

by mrtksn 2y ago

alephnerd 2y ago

> What USA will do In this unrealistic worst case, shut down the ability for ASML to raise any sort of capital by litigating in just about every market, threaten $60B in Dutch exports to the US, and threaten felony status for much of ASML, Philips, and NXP's leadership. Oh and nationalize Cymer LLC, as the manufacturing and IP for ASML's EUV work is in ASML's US Subsidary (Cymer llc [0]), not the Dutch parent that's a spinoff of NXP and Philips [0] - https://www.cymer.com/ https://www.cymer.com/

mrtksn 2y ago
I'm not convinced that legal structures can do anything between hostile countries. If that was possible they could have just sue Russia and get the war sorted out.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  The ASML parent in Netherlands doesn't have access to the IP or manufacturing. It's all part of the US holding in San Diego (Cymer LLC).
  - mrtksn 2y ago
    What do you mean they don't have access? Maybe they kept copy of the technical documents and just keep building the machine and send them to China and not send them to USA?
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      ASML is a HOLDING company. National Labs are part of the US Defense apparatus and have massive compliance and firewalling requirements, and constant audits. Any attempt by ASML Holdings to exfiltrate data and IP from Cymer LLC (a DoE contractor) opens ASML leadership to criminal charges, and makes them toxic in any deal. It might not matter to you, but it absolutely puts the Dutch economy at risk. And anyhow, all the manufacturing is done in San Diego and Livermore anyhow.
      - mrtksn 2y ago
        These things are important only at peacetime. Also, some parts being made in USA only means that they need to find a new supplier and if that doesn't exist then can help someone to figure it out. USA is an important partner but nothing is more important than the wellbeing of the immediate neighboring countries because USA is actually a distant 5th trading partner for the Dutch with less than %5 of the trade, it is as about as important as Italy. You can't have prosperous Netherlands with struggling Europe.
        alephnerd 2y ago
        The manufacturing for the EUV portions of EUV Lithography machines built and sold by ASML is done entirely in America (SoCal area) by an autonomous subsidiary (Cymer) that is a partnership with a National Lab. As a result, the Dutch portion has limited access to the intricacies. I don't know why this isn't getting into your head.
      - gtirloni 2y ago
        > And anyhow, all the manufacturing is done in San Diego and Livermore anyhow Could you define "all"? From your comment it seems all stories about ASML having a quasi-monopoly in lithography machines are nonsense. So it's the US holding the chip cards? That makes the China vs Taiwan debacle even less important to the US, since there's nothing to worry about.
        alephnerd 2y ago
  - surgical_fire 2y ago
    IPs only matter when both countries agree that they matter. In the eventuality that the US is seen as a foreign hostile country by EU members, which seems increasingly likely, those IPs do not need to be respected anymore. Unless your argument is that "EU chimps cannot figure out how to do lithography thenselves". Then I'll have a very hard time to take your argument seriously.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      > In the eventuality that the US is seen as a foreign hostile country by EU members, which seems increasingly likely First, I absolutely think Trump and Vance's conduct was horrid. That said, even after the past 2 weeks, European states are hesitant to provide boots on the ground to Ukraine [0][1]. Online (especially on English speaking Reddit and HN) there is strong support to help Ukraine, yet it seems individual members of European states do not wish to truly commit to Ukraine, due to political implications. If even Poland [1] does not want to provide boots on the ground, and Germany and France still want US boots on the ground in order for them to commit to Ukraine [1], then there is a fundamental problem with Ukraine's current posture. Even if Harris was president today, a similar outcome would have happened. As I have stated multiple times before, I don't think Europeans on Reddit/HN realize that China is the bigger issue for the US, not Russia (European leadership does recognize this and is trying to accommodate the US as such - look at the UK and Türkiye's commitment to Ukraine over the past decade). We have no actual defense in depth in the Pacific and have seen this first hand in WW2 with the Japanese invasion of American Philippines and Alaska and much more recently during both the SCS Standoff and Senkaku Diaoyu, but our allies in Europe can provide that for us in Russia. Nor do we expect our European allies except France (because of French Polynesia and Mayotte) to help us in a Indo-Pacific War If WW3 does happen, there will be no American soldiers in Kirkenes, we will be in the Kinmen Islands > Unless your argument is that "EU chimps cannot figure out how to do lithography thenselves". Then I'll have a very hard time to take your argument seriously. Europe (and China, South Korea, Japan, India, etc) absolutely can. Question is over what time period (2 years, 5 years, 10 years?). There needs to be a united "Europe" but there really isn't. When push comes to shove, European states devolve into bickering with each other because diametrically opposed interests. If an Obama 2 era Dem staffer like me is ticked off, then you should realize your leadership has burned any goodwill that remains in the American NatSec space. The Koreans and Taiwanese tick us off, but at least we know they will fight if push comes to shove. The only European states with a similar resolve are France, UK, Turkiye, Poland, Netherlands, and maybe Romania. We warned your leadership that an American president like Trump would eventually come, yet your leaders did not listen. At least your leadership recognizes this now, but has to work overtime because the Trump admin are incompetent at messaging. It will be better for both the US and our European allies if Germany, Netherlands, etc adopt a France+UK style policy of strategic autonomy. Maybe include Turkiye while you're at it otherwise they will make Balkan and Caucasus Integration impossible ---------- Also, none of the above sidesteps the fact that 20% of ASML's personnel is in the US, and ASML's light source technology (the primary part used for EUV and DUV) is manufactured and innovated by an JV in San Diego between ASML and Livermore Labs. [0] - https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/aid-ukraine-us-trump-zelensky-bbm899rln https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/ai... [1] - https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-leader-donald-trump-ukraine-peace-deal-emmanuel-macron-presidential-palace-donald-tusk/ https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-leader-donald-trump-...
gtirloni 2y ago
China would be salivating at the prospect of getting these machines that EU can't/won't sell to the US. I don't understand why Trump is so anxious to be buddies with Putin when Russia is aligned with China. It's feeling like an oligarch's world where under the table deals are what matters and the nationalist rhetoric is just a smoke screen.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  > China would be salivating at the prospect of getting these machines that EU can't/won't sell to the US The EUV portion of the machines are made in the US - it's manufactured by ASML's subsidiary Cymer, down in SoCal.

marcosdumay 2y ago

At some point, we start to talk about military action. It's not clear where the current US government will draw the line, and they would be crazy to draw the line at IP licensing... but well, I have some bad news. I have absolutely no idea what is the Trump's (or Musk's, or whoever is calling the shots) endgame is. There is the chance that military action is inevitable. It's really bad either way.

alephnerd 2y ago
Also, the entire EUV portion of ASML is owned and manufactured by Cymer in San Diego. They are part of ASML, but firewalled from the rest due to DoE and Federal Contractor requirements.
- iszomer 2y ago
  It' really interesting to see how interconnected supply chains work. Query: who are ASML's subsidiaries? // 1. Cymer (Acquired in 2013) A U.S.-based company specializing in EUV and DUV light sources. Cymer provides the laser-produced plasma (LPP) EUV sources used in ASML's EUV scanners. 2. Berliner Glas (Acquired in 2020) A German company specializing in high-precision optical components. Helps ASML develop optical lenses and mirrors for lithography machines. 3. HMI (Hermes Microvision, Acquired in 2016) A Taiwanese company focusing on e-beam inspection and metrology. Enables ASML to enhance defect detection in semiconductor manufacturing. 4. Carl Zeiss SMT (Strategic Partner, Not Owned) ASML has a strategic partnership with Carl Zeiss SMT, which supplies high-precision optics and mirrors used in EUV systems. While ASML doesn’t own Carl Zeiss, it invested heavily in their R&D for EUV optics. //
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    Yep! And ASML Holdings itself is a spinoff of NXP Semiconductors (primarily legacy nodes used in aerospace and automotive - VERY mission critical), which itself is a merger of the older Motorola Semiconductor division which landed us on the moon as well as Philips N.V.

MangoCoffee 2y ago

>What USA will do? FAFO.