3 ms·

When Russia annexed crimea in 2014 (phase 1 of the current war) the response was sanctions because no one wants WW3. Russia realized it can keep taking territo

When Russia annexed crimea in 2014 (phase 1 of the current war) the response was sanctions because no one wants WW3. Russia realized it can keep taking territory if it does so slowly because everyone is afraid of a bigger war and sanctions don't bother the Russian elite that much, so in 2022 they start phase 2 and absorb the additional sanctions. Trump has a new capitulation deal for Ukraine in hand, possibly pre-approved with Russia, but Zelensky either backed out of accepting the terms or was otherwise surprised about the details and didn't play ball with Trump; possibly because it included him losing a lot of face.

logicalmind 2y ago
My read on the situation is that Zelensky is willing to make any deal for lasting peace. Meaning, if a deal is made and Russia ignores the ceasefire or continues its invasion in a month or year, what will happen to them? This is literally what he asked because Russia has violated all of the previous agreements in the same way. What Trump was offering was to take a chunk of their resources for another temporary peace offer. Which as noted above, will almost certainly be violated in the near term by Russia again. So Ukraine is not only back where they started, but also lost a chunk of their resources. Why would Zelensky agree to that?
- liveoneggs 2y ago
  Yes I agree with you. There is no way to get lasting peace, really, because the US isn't currently willing to start a direct war with Russia but Russia is willing to test the waters. US and Russia thought Ukraine was running out of steam, I suppose. Zelensky refusing this offer is an interesting move. It could, of course, just be for show until next week when he does sign a modified deal.
- matwood 2y ago
  > My read on the situation is that Zelensky is willing to make any deal for lasting peace. Yep, but Zelensky/Ukraine needs guarantees that the US will enforce the deal. It's also bs that Trump and crew are putting the lack of peace on Ukraine - literally Russian propaganda talking points.

logicalmind 2y ago

My read on the situation is that Zelensky is willing to make any deal for lasting peace. Meaning, if a deal is made and Russia ignores the ceasefire or continues its invasion in a month or year, what will happen to them? This is literally what he asked because Russia has violated all of the previous agreements in the same way. What Trump was offering was to take a chunk of their resources for another temporary peace offer. Which as noted above, will almost certainly be violated in the near term by Russia again. So Ukraine is not only back where they started, but also lost a chunk of their resources. Why would Zelensky agree to that?

liveoneggs 2y ago
Yes I agree with you. There is no way to get lasting peace, really, because the US isn't currently willing to start a direct war with Russia but Russia is willing to test the waters. US and Russia thought Ukraine was running out of steam, I suppose. Zelensky refusing this offer is an interesting move. It could, of course, just be for show until next week when he does sign a modified deal.
matwood 2y ago
> My read on the situation is that Zelensky is willing to make any deal for lasting peace. Yep, but Zelensky/Ukraine needs guarantees that the US will enforce the deal. It's also bs that Trump and crew are putting the lack of peace on Ukraine - literally Russian propaganda talking points.