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Can someone ELI5 the facts & dynamics at play - without taking a side in this topic? Seems like POTUS feels used / manipulated, but how & why? Zelensky seems

Can someone ELI5 the facts & dynamics at play - without taking a side in this topic? Seems like POTUS feels used / manipulated, but how & why? Zelensky seems to disagree with some apparent proposed plan, but what is the plan & why does he disagree?

nikodotio 2y ago
Not make it political… you’re joking right?
surfpel 2y ago
[flagged]
- alberth 2y ago
  An 85-min video wasn't exactly what I was looking for :) But appreciate you sharing.
  - surfpel 2y ago
    It's WELL worth it in my opinion :) Cheers!
    - celsoazevedo 2y ago
      It's good to be exposed to different views, but that guy takes the point he's trying to make too far. He blames everyone but Russia for the war Russia decided to start in 2014 and expand in 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine. Not the US, not NATO, not the EU. It was Russia. It was their decision. It's very important to remember who did what.
      - surfpel 2y ago
        I didn't believe it for a while and frankly the situation our leaders put us in is gut wrenching. Here's a leaked call of Victoria Nuland, secretary of state, picking the next leader of Ukraine. I also added a link to Kissinger discussing this issue 30 years ago. These demonstrate that this expansionism is real, Ukraine is not truly sovereign, and Russia was forced into a horrendous position where they have to decide between a humanitarian crisis now, or potentially a much bigger humanitarian crisis down the line if all NATO member states engage in war with Russia, a large Nuclear power. Many blame NATO/USAID/CIA for creating this situation over many decades, even though they knew it would come to this. Nuland call: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoW75J5bnnE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoW75J5bnnE Kissinger: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHm_7T7QNl8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHm_7T7QNl8 P.S. I should say that I also hate Putin for being a murderous oligarch, so take that however you will. But let's be real, he's been warning against this for decades.
        celsoazevedo 2y ago
        But that's what countries do. They try to support people/sides that are better for them. I'm not saying this is a nice thing, it's just how the world works. Russia was doing the same in Ukraine by supporting some people/parties and even poisoning politicians. Look at what happens in Belarus, their financial support to far right parties in Europe, etc. Heck, they invaded Ukraine ffs. By your standards, almost no country is sovereign. NATO states engaging in a war with Russia? As you said, Russia is a nuclear power, no one is going to start a war with them... Do you know what even a single EMP can do to a country? Also, NATO isn't talking about fluid borders, making weekly threats about invading smaller neighboring countries or invading anyone... no one really knew what NATO was for anymore... until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and escalated in 2022. This started when the president at the time - a Putin friend - decided to cancel a trade agreement with the EU and sign one with Russia instead. I don't know how do you go from protests to the police killing people, but the rest is history. That's when Russia invaded and it went well for them, but it didn't go so well in 2022. Putin warning for years doesn't remove any responsibility from him or Russia. It also doesn't grant him any power over a country. Russia is responsible for their own actions and while I don't see a problem with pointing out the meddling of other powers, I do think it's wrong to blame everyone but the country that actually started the war.
        B1FF_PSUVM 2y ago
        You might want to look at this 3-year old piece: https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-man-who-sold-ukraine/ https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-man-who-sold-ukraine/ And after that there was another peace agreement scuppered, allegedly by Boris Johnson. Easy to search for.
        celsoazevedo 2y ago
        And the Minsk Protocol was a thing because... wait for it... Russia invaded Ukraine. This is why it's ridiculous to blame everyone but Russia for Russia's own actions (that's what I tried to point out in my reply above). The same way a country like the US is responsible for their invasion of Iraq, their actions in Vietnam, etc, Russia is responsible for their invasion of Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine, no "buts" or "ifs". On a side note, I was trying to read that article with an open mind, but there are some red flags that I couldn't ignore. "[...] Russian officials had worked for 8 years on Minsk hammering out terms that would be agreeable to all parties [...]". Russia, as the aggressor - they invaded, occupied, armed, and even fought directly against Ukrainian forces - could never come up with terms that were agreeable to all parties. This and other things should tell you that that's not a very unbiased source.
liveoneggs 2y ago
When Russia annexed crimea in 2014 (phase 1 of the current war) the response was sanctions because no one wants WW3. Russia realized it can keep taking territory if it does so slowly because everyone is afraid of a bigger war and sanctions don't bother the Russian elite that much, so in 2022 they start phase 2 and absorb the additional sanctions. Trump has a new capitulation deal for Ukraine in hand, possibly pre-approved with Russia, but Zelensky either backed out of accepting the terms or was otherwise surprised about the details and didn't play ball with Trump; possibly because it included him losing a lot of face.
- logicalmind 2y ago
  My read on the situation is that Zelensky is willing to make any deal for lasting peace. Meaning, if a deal is made and Russia ignores the ceasefire or continues its invasion in a month or year, what will happen to them? This is literally what he asked because Russia has violated all of the previous agreements in the same way. What Trump was offering was to take a chunk of their resources for another temporary peace offer. Which as noted above, will almost certainly be violated in the near term by Russia again. So Ukraine is not only back where they started, but also lost a chunk of their resources. Why would Zelensky agree to that?
  - liveoneggs 2y ago
    Yes I agree with you. There is no way to get lasting peace, really, because the US isn't currently willing to start a direct war with Russia but Russia is willing to test the waters. US and Russia thought Ukraine was running out of steam, I suppose. Zelensky refusing this offer is an interesting move. It could, of course, just be for show until next week when he does sign a modified deal.
  - matwood 2y ago
    > My read on the situation is that Zelensky is willing to make any deal for lasting peace. Yep, but Zelensky/Ukraine needs guarantees that the US will enforce the deal. It's also bs that Trump and crew are putting the lack of peace on Ukraine - literally Russian propaganda talking points.
rich_sasha 2y ago
One possibility is that foreign policy is in fact often driven by domestic policy. It sounds like this is the sort of reaction that Trump voters might like - both the form and substance. So Trump obliges. The foreign consequences might be of secondary importance to him. Another possibility is that, we have seen over the past decade or so, illiberal autocrats seem to support and like each other - Orban, Putin, Le Pen in France, now also AfD and Musk. They seem to like the idea of strong leaders such as themselves, carving up the world. This might motivate Trump to side with Putin. As to the plan: there doesn't really seem to be one, as far as I can tell. Trump implied there's some mineral extraction deal he wanted from Ukraine but unclear how it works. It doesn't promise the one thing Ukraine needs, which is security. Depending on your viewpoint, you might say Trump is extorting mineral rights from Ukraine, or that they want to put some structure on how the mineral wealth will be used to rebuild Ukraine - that's what is discussed at face value. But either way, for any mineral extraction, you need peace, so it's unclear why you would even discuss this while the war is going on.
bashback 2y ago
[dead]

nikodotio 2y ago

Not make it political… you’re joking right?

surfpel 2y ago

[flagged]

alberth 2y ago
An 85-min video wasn't exactly what I was looking for :) But appreciate you sharing.
- surfpel 2y ago
  It's WELL worth it in my opinion :) Cheers!
  - celsoazevedo 2y ago
    It's good to be exposed to different views, but that guy takes the point he's trying to make too far. He blames everyone but Russia for the war Russia decided to start in 2014 and expand in 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine. Not the US, not NATO, not the EU. It was Russia. It was their decision. It's very important to remember who did what.
    - surfpel 2y ago
      I didn't believe it for a while and frankly the situation our leaders put us in is gut wrenching. Here's a leaked call of Victoria Nuland, secretary of state, picking the next leader of Ukraine. I also added a link to Kissinger discussing this issue 30 years ago. These demonstrate that this expansionism is real, Ukraine is not truly sovereign, and Russia was forced into a horrendous position where they have to decide between a humanitarian crisis now, or potentially a much bigger humanitarian crisis down the line if all NATO member states engage in war with Russia, a large Nuclear power. Many blame NATO/USAID/CIA for creating this situation over many decades, even though they knew it would come to this. Nuland call: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoW75J5bnnE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoW75J5bnnE Kissinger: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHm_7T7QNl8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHm_7T7QNl8 P.S. I should say that I also hate Putin for being a murderous oligarch, so take that however you will. But let's be real, he's been warning against this for decades.
      - celsoazevedo 2y ago
        But that's what countries do. They try to support people/sides that are better for them. I'm not saying this is a nice thing, it's just how the world works. Russia was doing the same in Ukraine by supporting some people/parties and even poisoning politicians. Look at what happens in Belarus, their financial support to far right parties in Europe, etc. Heck, they invaded Ukraine ffs. By your standards, almost no country is sovereign. NATO states engaging in a war with Russia? As you said, Russia is a nuclear power, no one is going to start a war with them... Do you know what even a single EMP can do to a country? Also, NATO isn't talking about fluid borders, making weekly threats about invading smaller neighboring countries or invading anyone... no one really knew what NATO was for anymore... until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and escalated in 2022. This started when the president at the time - a Putin friend - decided to cancel a trade agreement with the EU and sign one with Russia instead. I don't know how do you go from protests to the police killing people, but the rest is history. That's when Russia invaded and it went well for them, but it didn't go so well in 2022. Putin warning for years doesn't remove any responsibility from him or Russia. It also doesn't grant him any power over a country. Russia is responsible for their own actions and while I don't see a problem with pointing out the meddling of other powers, I do think it's wrong to blame everyone but the country that actually started the war.
        B1FF_PSUVM 2y ago
        You might want to look at this 3-year old piece: https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-man-who-sold-ukraine/ https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-man-who-sold-ukraine/ And after that there was another peace agreement scuppered, allegedly by Boris Johnson. Easy to search for.
        celsoazevedo 2y ago
        And the Minsk Protocol was a thing because... wait for it... Russia invaded Ukraine. This is why it's ridiculous to blame everyone but Russia for Russia's own actions (that's what I tried to point out in my reply above). The same way a country like the US is responsible for their invasion of Iraq, their actions in Vietnam, etc, Russia is responsible for their invasion of Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine, no "buts" or "ifs". On a side note, I was trying to read that article with an open mind, but there are some red flags that I couldn't ignore. "[...] Russian officials had worked for 8 years on Minsk hammering out terms that would be agreeable to all parties [...]". Russia, as the aggressor - they invaded, occupied, armed, and even fought directly against Ukrainian forces - could never come up with terms that were agreeable to all parties. This and other things should tell you that that's not a very unbiased source.

liveoneggs 2y ago

When Russia annexed crimea in 2014 (phase 1 of the current war) the response was sanctions because no one wants WW3. Russia realized it can keep taking territory if it does so slowly because everyone is afraid of a bigger war and sanctions don't bother the Russian elite that much, so in 2022 they start phase 2 and absorb the additional sanctions. Trump has a new capitulation deal for Ukraine in hand, possibly pre-approved with Russia, but Zelensky either backed out of accepting the terms or was otherwise surprised about the details and didn't play ball with Trump; possibly because it included him losing a lot of face.

logicalmind 2y ago
My read on the situation is that Zelensky is willing to make any deal for lasting peace. Meaning, if a deal is made and Russia ignores the ceasefire or continues its invasion in a month or year, what will happen to them? This is literally what he asked because Russia has violated all of the previous agreements in the same way. What Trump was offering was to take a chunk of their resources for another temporary peace offer. Which as noted above, will almost certainly be violated in the near term by Russia again. So Ukraine is not only back where they started, but also lost a chunk of their resources. Why would Zelensky agree to that?
- liveoneggs 2y ago
  Yes I agree with you. There is no way to get lasting peace, really, because the US isn't currently willing to start a direct war with Russia but Russia is willing to test the waters. US and Russia thought Ukraine was running out of steam, I suppose. Zelensky refusing this offer is an interesting move. It could, of course, just be for show until next week when he does sign a modified deal.
- matwood 2y ago
  > My read on the situation is that Zelensky is willing to make any deal for lasting peace. Yep, but Zelensky/Ukraine needs guarantees that the US will enforce the deal. It's also bs that Trump and crew are putting the lack of peace on Ukraine - literally Russian propaganda talking points.

rich_sasha 2y ago

One possibility is that foreign policy is in fact often driven by domestic policy. It sounds like this is the sort of reaction that Trump voters might like - both the form and substance. So Trump obliges. The foreign consequences might be of secondary importance to him. Another possibility is that, we have seen over the past decade or so, illiberal autocrats seem to support and like each other - Orban, Putin, Le Pen in France, now also AfD and Musk. They seem to like the idea of strong leaders such as themselves, carving up the world. This might motivate Trump to side with Putin. As to the plan: there doesn't really seem to be one, as far as I can tell. Trump implied there's some mineral extraction deal he wanted from Ukraine but unclear how it works. It doesn't promise the one thing Ukraine needs, which is security. Depending on your viewpoint, you might say Trump is extorting mineral rights from Ukraine, or that they want to put some structure on how the mineral wealth will be used to rebuild Ukraine - that's what is discussed at face value. But either way, for any mineral extraction, you need peace, so it's unclear why you would even discuss this while the war is going on.

bashback 2y ago

[dead]