4 ms·

It looks like the US wants a regime change in Ukraine, it's possible that this became a pre condition from russia for talks to go forward. OTOH, a minerals dea

by seydor 2y ago

It looks like the US wants a regime change in Ukraine, it's possible that this became a pre condition from russia for talks to go forward. OTOH, a minerals deal with the US ensures that the US will have a stake in defending the postwar ukraine. Lots of drama and optics involved for sure, but it seems the outcome or the talks was predetermined JdVance will not last for long - is there procedure to replace him?

preisschild 2y ago
> OTOH, a minerals deal with the US ensures that the US will have a stake in defending the postwar ukraine. Most of the minerals are in russian-occupied territory, so if they want that they would also need to further arm Ukraine now.
- techterrier 2y ago
  nope, they can do a deal with the Russians.
- kadoban 2y ago
  It does not seem like Trump actually wants a deal. They are not offering anything. It appears to be simply a pretext to have some reason to berate Ukraine and Zelenskyy. "Oh you won't take our [completely ridiculous] deal? I guess we'll just have to side with Russia then!" Like that's not what they were going to do anyway.
ksaj 2y ago
Putin said he would gladly share with the US. So there is yet another, larger carrot dangling in front of Trump's eyes.
- GuestFAUniverse 2y ago
  Like Gaza for the development of Kushner's hotels on the seaside. And I bet the right-wing-conservative scum helping him from Israel already got their shares.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
Jtsummers 2y ago
If the Vice Presidency is vacant, the President nominates and Congress (both houses) confirm. > Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress. 25th Amendment https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv The VP can be removed by Congress (impeachment), the President cannot direct the VP to vacate the office.
- nikanj 2y ago
  With the current string of SCOTUS decisions, Trump can have the VP shot at dawn, declare it an official act, and elect Musk as the new VP.
  - Jtsummers 2y ago
    That would not be directing him to vacate the office, but yes he could probably do that. But he wouldn't elect Musk, he could nominate Musk. He'd still need Congress (beholden to Musk for their future seats if GOP) to confirm him. But you also have to be qualified to be President to be Vice President, so Musk would be disqualified anyways.
    - plagiarist 2y ago
      Who is going to disqualify him? Republicans would just invent some doublethink for why it is okay for this particular African to have that role. The extremely partisan SCOTUS will allow it, and that will be that.
      - Jtsummers 2y ago
        If SCOTUS says it's ok, then the US Constitution is completely tossed out and SCOTUS has no authority to say anything. That's not to say they wouldn't make a decision like that, but to disregard the literal text of the Constitution would make both Congress and SCOTUS unnecessary, they can be scrapped in seconds with an EO after a decision like that.
mattmaroon 2y ago
Would you like to wager against JD Vance lasting the entire term?
- rco8786 2y ago
  Seriously. He parroted his boss to the best of his ability. I'm sure trump is perfectly pleased with his "performance".
  - mattmaroon 2y ago
    And just generally, every time someone told me Trump wasn’t going to last the first term or run again I tried to bet them. A few took me up. It’s a strange fantasy that guy you don’t like will just go away. How many presidents or VPs don’t last a full term? Anyone who thinks that has let their emotions divorce their logic from reality, and is thus a good person to wager against
- GolfPopper 2y ago
  I suspect Trump lasting the entire term is less likely. If something happens to Trump after January 20th, 2027, Vance can serve out the remainder of this term, then run as the incumbent for two additional terms as a frontman for the Musk/Thiel axis, a role he has played well for some time. If the country's rulers want to bother to keep the pretense of Constitutional government, that is.
GolfPopper 2y ago
>a minerals deal with the US ensures that the US will have a stake in defending the postwar ukraine. It will not. Trump will simply use the deal as an excuse to betray Ukraine (more than he already has). I can practically hear it playing out now. "I had to force Ukraine to completely surrender to Russia. It was the only way to make sure Russia honored the mineral rights granted to my billionaire friends."
daedrdev 2y ago
Vance has even better chances of lasting the entire term after his pro-Russia performance today.
jimmydoe 2y ago
The outcome was predetermined. Z was not fully sold on this, and Trump/Vance just wanted to maximize the optics, hence the fall out. Just a small ripple, the deep states will rebalance this out.
bitshiftfaced 2y ago
Vance is currently trading sideways to slightly up on Kalshi's market for who will be the Republican nominee in the next election.
duped 2y ago
> JdVance will not last for long - is there procedure to replace him? fwiw, the President cannot fire the VP. The Vice Presidency is an independent political office.
tasuki 2y ago
> JdVance will not last for long - is there procedure to replace him? Why won't he last long?
- seydor 2y ago
  Too controversial, tends to overshadow his notoriously insecure boss
  - jimt1234 2y ago
    This is what made Mike Pence the perfect VP for Trump at the time - he was never gonna steal the spotlight from Trump. However, Trump is focused almost entirely on loyalty now - the one thing that Mike Pence lacked in the end.
    - bregma 2y ago
      Mike Pence was loyal to his boss -- the US Constitution -- to the end. He would never have thrived under the new Constitution-free order any way.
insane_dreamer 2y ago
I think Vance will stay; he’s playing Trump’s tune.
cryptonector 2y ago
> JdVance will not last for long - is there procedure to replace him? Why would he "not last long"? Who would remove him? Would they not also remove Trump if they could remove Vance?
sesm 2y ago
> It looks like the US wants a regime change in Ukraine, it's possible that this became a pre condition from russia for talks to go forward. It's not just possible, it was stated openly multiple times by Russian diplomats. The official position is: anything signed by Zelensky has potential to be invalidated later, because according to constitution of Ukraine he is not a legitimate president anymore. So this legal loophole should be removed before signing any agreements.

by seydor 2y ago

preisschild 2y ago

> OTOH, a minerals deal with the US ensures that the US will have a stake in defending the postwar ukraine. Most of the minerals are in russian-occupied territory, so if they want that they would also need to further arm Ukraine now.

techterrier 2y ago
nope, they can do a deal with the Russians.
kadoban 2y ago
It does not seem like Trump actually wants a deal. They are not offering anything. It appears to be simply a pretext to have some reason to berate Ukraine and Zelenskyy. "Oh you won't take our [completely ridiculous] deal? I guess we'll just have to side with Russia then!" Like that's not what they were going to do anyway.

ksaj 2y ago

Putin said he would gladly share with the US. So there is yet another, larger carrot dangling in front of Trump's eyes.

GuestFAUniverse 2y ago
Like Gaza for the development of Kushner's hotels on the seaside. And I bet the right-wing-conservative scum helping him from Israel already got their shares.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

Jtsummers 2y ago

If the Vice Presidency is vacant, the President nominates and Congress (both houses) confirm. > Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress. 25th Amendment https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv The VP can be removed by Congress (impeachment), the President cannot direct the VP to vacate the office.

nikanj 2y ago
With the current string of SCOTUS decisions, Trump can have the VP shot at dawn, declare it an official act, and elect Musk as the new VP.
- Jtsummers 2y ago
  That would not be directing him to vacate the office, but yes he could probably do that. But he wouldn't elect Musk, he could nominate Musk. He'd still need Congress (beholden to Musk for their future seats if GOP) to confirm him. But you also have to be qualified to be President to be Vice President, so Musk would be disqualified anyways.
  - plagiarist 2y ago
    Who is going to disqualify him? Republicans would just invent some doublethink for why it is okay for this particular African to have that role. The extremely partisan SCOTUS will allow it, and that will be that.
    - Jtsummers 2y ago
      If SCOTUS says it's ok, then the US Constitution is completely tossed out and SCOTUS has no authority to say anything. That's not to say they wouldn't make a decision like that, but to disregard the literal text of the Constitution would make both Congress and SCOTUS unnecessary, they can be scrapped in seconds with an EO after a decision like that.

mattmaroon 2y ago

Would you like to wager against JD Vance lasting the entire term?

rco8786 2y ago
Seriously. He parroted his boss to the best of his ability. I'm sure trump is perfectly pleased with his "performance".
- mattmaroon 2y ago
  And just generally, every time someone told me Trump wasn’t going to last the first term or run again I tried to bet them. A few took me up. It’s a strange fantasy that guy you don’t like will just go away. How many presidents or VPs don’t last a full term? Anyone who thinks that has let their emotions divorce their logic from reality, and is thus a good person to wager against
GolfPopper 2y ago
I suspect Trump lasting the entire term is less likely. If something happens to Trump after January 20th, 2027, Vance can serve out the remainder of this term, then run as the incumbent for two additional terms as a frontman for the Musk/Thiel axis, a role he has played well for some time. If the country's rulers want to bother to keep the pretense of Constitutional government, that is.

GolfPopper 2y ago

>a minerals deal with the US ensures that the US will have a stake in defending the postwar ukraine. It will not. Trump will simply use the deal as an excuse to betray Ukraine (more than he already has). I can practically hear it playing out now. "I had to force Ukraine to completely surrender to Russia. It was the only way to make sure Russia honored the mineral rights granted to my billionaire friends."

daedrdev 2y ago

Vance has even better chances of lasting the entire term after his pro-Russia performance today.

jimmydoe 2y ago

The outcome was predetermined. Z was not fully sold on this, and Trump/Vance just wanted to maximize the optics, hence the fall out. Just a small ripple, the deep states will rebalance this out.

bitshiftfaced 2y ago

Vance is currently trading sideways to slightly up on Kalshi's market for who will be the Republican nominee in the next election.

duped 2y ago

> JdVance will not last for long - is there procedure to replace him? fwiw, the President cannot fire the VP. The Vice Presidency is an independent political office.

tasuki 2y ago

> JdVance will not last for long - is there procedure to replace him? Why won't he last long?

seydor 2y ago
Too controversial, tends to overshadow his notoriously insecure boss
- jimt1234 2y ago
  This is what made Mike Pence the perfect VP for Trump at the time - he was never gonna steal the spotlight from Trump. However, Trump is focused almost entirely on loyalty now - the one thing that Mike Pence lacked in the end.
  - bregma 2y ago
    Mike Pence was loyal to his boss -- the US Constitution -- to the end. He would never have thrived under the new Constitution-free order any way.

insane_dreamer 2y ago

I think Vance will stay; he’s playing Trump’s tune.

cryptonector 2y ago

> JdVance will not last for long - is there procedure to replace him? Why would he "not last long"? Who would remove him? Would they not also remove Trump if they could remove Vance?

sesm 2y ago

> It looks like the US wants a regime change in Ukraine, it's possible that this became a pre condition from russia for talks to go forward. It's not just possible, it was stated openly multiple times by Russian diplomats. The official position is: anything signed by Zelensky has potential to be invalidated later, because according to constitution of Ukraine he is not a legitimate president anymore. So this legal loophole should be removed before signing any agreements.