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>"If the US is going to maintain a credible deterrent against China then something has to change. Either defense spending has to go up or we have to drastically

by FpUser 2y ago

>"If the US is going to maintain a credible deterrent against China then something has to change. Either defense spending has to go up or we have to drastically scale back activities in other areas. And no, cheap AI drone swarms won't replace the capabilities of something like a B-21." Assuming the US would actually need B21 capability in a war with China. Those will be probably blown up from the sky very fast. Besides I doubt wars with China and / or Russia will be limited to conventional means. Will probably escalate to nuclear very fast and then everybody is royally fucked.

runjake 2y ago
I think any war with China would be predominantly economic and cyber. I don’t think it’s viable for either party to perform a mainland strikes and I don’t think it would become nuclear, but who knows. If things escalate during the current POTUS’s term, I think it will come down to meetings and deal-makings, because that is POTUS’s passion and preferred way. I think any war with Russia would be, well is, economic and cyber and proxy wars.
- spankalee 2y ago
  > I think it will come down to meetings and deal-makings, because that is POTUS’s passion and preferred way Current POTUS is an egomaniacal moron. Things could very easily get out of his control, especially as he dismantles the US government and sources of influence throughout the world.
- FpUser 2y ago
  >"I think it will come down to meetings and deal-makings, because that is POTUS’s passion and preferred way." Don't you think it looks more attractive than going up in flames?
- rbanffy 2y ago
  > because that is POTUS’s passion and preferred way. Just like he surrendered Ukraine to Russia. An amazing deal for everyone involved, except Ukraine.
ge96 2y ago
> Those will be probably blown up from the sky very fast. Why do you say that? I'd think B21 is better (stealthier) than B2. I think there is a story about a B2 dropping a dud on NK undetected granted NK vs. China
nradov 2y ago
Nah. Everything we know about the B-21 indicates that it's probably pretty survivable against the Chinese air defense system. Especially for stand-off strikes near the Taiwan Strait where it wouldn't have to overfly radar stations. The design was literally optimized for exactly that purpose. Ironically the B-21 is probably safest in the air. The greatest kinetic threat is on the ground because forward air bases generally lack hardened aircraft shelters or effective missile defense. This is another reason why maintaining deterrence against China will require a major increase in defense spending or realignment of priorities. The whole point of procuring a platform like the B-21 is to never have to use it. The strategic calculus is that just having it gives the US a range of conventional options short of global thermonuclear war, and thus forces adversaries to be more cautious.
- TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
  The greatest kinetic threat is from drone swarm attacks, which can be delivered to the vicinity of an airbase from a handful of anonymous-looking trucks or vans. One or two grenade-strength shrapnel devices are enough to make a $700m dollar special project useless.
  - nradov 2y ago
    How does a truck drive to Diego Garcia?
    - WillPostForFood 2y ago
      There is a major shipping lane that runs SE of Diego Garcia. https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:72.1/centery:-7.0/zoom:8 https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:72.1/cente... You could try a surprise drone attack from a container ship. Looks like the closest ship is about 125 miles away, that might be pushing the range a bit.
- ben7799 2y ago
  It's hard to believe the B-21 would ever be stored at a forward missile base. They'd likely take off from the US, fly wherever they need to go for their mission without landing, and then fly all the way back to the US. Same as the B-2. Similarly it's unlikely a drone strike is an issue due to distance.

by FpUser 2y ago

runjake 2y ago

I think any war with China would be predominantly economic and cyber. I don’t think it’s viable for either party to perform a mainland strikes and I don’t think it would become nuclear, but who knows. If things escalate during the current POTUS’s term, I think it will come down to meetings and deal-makings, because that is POTUS’s passion and preferred way. I think any war with Russia would be, well is, economic and cyber and proxy wars.

spankalee 2y ago
> I think it will come down to meetings and deal-makings, because that is POTUS’s passion and preferred way Current POTUS is an egomaniacal moron. Things could very easily get out of his control, especially as he dismantles the US government and sources of influence throughout the world.
FpUser 2y ago
>"I think it will come down to meetings and deal-makings, because that is POTUS’s passion and preferred way." Don't you think it looks more attractive than going up in flames?
rbanffy 2y ago
> because that is POTUS’s passion and preferred way. Just like he surrendered Ukraine to Russia. An amazing deal for everyone involved, except Ukraine.

ge96 2y ago

> Those will be probably blown up from the sky very fast. Why do you say that? I'd think B21 is better (stealthier) than B2. I think there is a story about a B2 dropping a dud on NK undetected granted NK vs. China

nradov 2y ago

Nah. Everything we know about the B-21 indicates that it's probably pretty survivable against the Chinese air defense system. Especially for stand-off strikes near the Taiwan Strait where it wouldn't have to overfly radar stations. The design was literally optimized for exactly that purpose. Ironically the B-21 is probably safest in the air. The greatest kinetic threat is on the ground because forward air bases generally lack hardened aircraft shelters or effective missile defense. This is another reason why maintaining deterrence against China will require a major increase in defense spending or realignment of priorities. The whole point of procuring a platform like the B-21 is to never have to use it. The strategic calculus is that just having it gives the US a range of conventional options short of global thermonuclear war, and thus forces adversaries to be more cautious.

TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
The greatest kinetic threat is from drone swarm attacks, which can be delivered to the vicinity of an airbase from a handful of anonymous-looking trucks or vans. One or two grenade-strength shrapnel devices are enough to make a $700m dollar special project useless.
- nradov 2y ago
  How does a truck drive to Diego Garcia?
  - WillPostForFood 2y ago
    There is a major shipping lane that runs SE of Diego Garcia. https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:72.1/centery:-7.0/zoom:8 https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:72.1/cente... You could try a surprise drone attack from a container ship. Looks like the closest ship is about 125 miles away, that might be pushing the range a bit.
ben7799 2y ago
It's hard to believe the B-21 would ever be stored at a forward missile base. They'd likely take off from the US, fly wherever they need to go for their mission without landing, and then fly all the way back to the US. Same as the B-2. Similarly it's unlikely a drone strike is an issue due to distance.