5 ms·

The Chinese? It sounds flippant but the US hasn't got some unassailable moat around chip production or their application.

ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
It's not a small feat. China would have to: 1: Take over Taiwan to get TSML under their control 2: Find a way to make a deal with ASML for the needed lithography machines 3: Somehow aquire the knowhow that Nvidia has Taiwan would require a conflict with the US. ASML is a dutch company but seems to be somehow under US control. I have not yet figured out the exact setup there. And Nvidia is a US company.
- willvarfar 2y ago
  China has steadily been developing its own processes and the laser tech needed for smaller sizes. It is very clear that both US and China are racing to onshore and establish sovereign control of chip production. Sucks to be Taiwanese right now. The "silicon shield" is evaporating.
  - ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
    Citation needed. I have yet to see anything that hints at China being able to catch up with ASML+TSMC+Nvidia.
    - themagician 2y ago
      They are trying, and will eventually catch up, the same way they have in software and in hardware in many other spaces. Maybe it will take another 10 years. Maybe another 10 months. This idea that EUVL is—and always will be—outside of the reach of China is, frankly, silly. It's a silly strategy to maintain dominance. They will straight up steal the technology if needed. We should stop pretending like we can roadblock the technological development of the largest country. It's just going to make the fall that much harder. Once they do attain the ability to manufactuer EUVL domestically, capital is going to flood out of US tech stocks like no tomorrow. You haven't seen anything that hints at it, because most news about what happens in China doesn't leave China. The propoganda machine is hard at work reminding you that China is terrible and eveyrone in China is poor. You'll learn about China catching up only after it's already happened.
      - ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
        news about what happens in China doesn't leave China Then how do you know?
        deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
        That’s just a dumb red herring strawman take on news about China. You can be perfectly informed about what is happening in China, you can also be misled by their propaganda as well. China will eventually catch up in the two areas it is lacking (performant and economical semiconductors and jet turbines) since they are throwing billions at it, but they won’t pass the west overnight (it will still take a few years, maybe a decade).
- tibbydudeza 2y ago
  UEV patents are held by the DOD so the US get's to decide who get's the machines.

ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago

It's not a small feat. China would have to: 1: Take over Taiwan to get TSML under their control 2: Find a way to make a deal with ASML for the needed lithography machines 3: Somehow aquire the knowhow that Nvidia has Taiwan would require a conflict with the US. ASML is a dutch company but seems to be somehow under US control. I have not yet figured out the exact setup there. And Nvidia is a US company.

willvarfar 2y ago
China has steadily been developing its own processes and the laser tech needed for smaller sizes. It is very clear that both US and China are racing to onshore and establish sovereign control of chip production. Sucks to be Taiwanese right now. The "silicon shield" is evaporating.
- ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
  Citation needed. I have yet to see anything that hints at China being able to catch up with ASML+TSMC+Nvidia.
  - themagician 2y ago
    They are trying, and will eventually catch up, the same way they have in software and in hardware in many other spaces. Maybe it will take another 10 years. Maybe another 10 months. This idea that EUVL is—and always will be—outside of the reach of China is, frankly, silly. It's a silly strategy to maintain dominance. They will straight up steal the technology if needed. We should stop pretending like we can roadblock the technological development of the largest country. It's just going to make the fall that much harder. Once they do attain the ability to manufactuer EUVL domestically, capital is going to flood out of US tech stocks like no tomorrow. You haven't seen anything that hints at it, because most news about what happens in China doesn't leave China. The propoganda machine is hard at work reminding you that China is terrible and eveyrone in China is poor. You'll learn about China catching up only after it's already happened.
    - ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
      news about what happens in China doesn't leave China Then how do you know?
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
    - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
      That’s just a dumb red herring strawman take on news about China. You can be perfectly informed about what is happening in China, you can also be misled by their propaganda as well. China will eventually catch up in the two areas it is lacking (performant and economical semiconductors and jet turbines) since they are throwing billions at it, but they won’t pass the west overnight (it will still take a few years, maybe a decade).
tibbydudeza 2y ago
UEV patents are held by the DOD so the US get's to decide who get's the machines.