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Probably an unpopular opinion, but defending Taiwan was always a bluff. Americans aren’t going to die en masse over some random island in the pacific. We will

Probably an unpopular opinion, but defending Taiwan was always a bluff. Americans aren’t going to die en masse over some random island in the pacific. We will heavily sanction China and use economic tools, but we aren’t going to start World War 3 over some small island in the pacific.

palmotea 2y ago
> We will heavily sanction China and use economic tools Which will be pointless and fail, especially against a country like China.
disqard 2y ago
You might be right now in your judgement of what Americans are willing to die for. However, I'm old enough to recall when America was convinced by Rumsfeld et. al. to send US soldiers in harms way -- over 4000 of them died in Iraq -- for some obscenely lucrative oil contracts. That qualifies as "die en masse", and it was over some really flimsy pretext, which was later proved to be completely false.
- voidfunc 2y ago
  You don't understand, those people were brown and the wrong religion and were easily associated with the other brown guys that killed a couple thousand people in 2001. Also 4K is a drop in the bucket compared to what it would take to defend Taiwan.
cantrecallmypwd 2y ago
China is currently building some serious coastal barrier-breaching landing craft for very heavy, large vehicles like tanks. These wouldn't be built unless China intends to: a) Invade Taiwan in the next 1-2 years b) Extort by threat of invasion https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-building-fleet-of-special-barges-suitable-for-taiwan-landings/ https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-... https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/built-extremely-quickly-new-china-pics-making-experts-sweat/news-story/0e475ce00ac3d3f74c3da89e791dc0e4 https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/built...
addicted 2y ago
> Probably an unpopular opinion, but defending Taiwan was always a bluff. Americans aren’t going to die en masse over some random island in the pacific. This is such a funny comment because it’s both right and oh so wrong. Yes, the U.S. was likely never gonna send troops to fight in Taiwan (although it has sent troops to fight in Korea, so it’s not as much of a stretch as you claim). But the bluff worked because the U.S.’s promises held value. To the point that the U.S. didn’t explicitly say they would defend Taiwan against China, but China was avoiding confrontation with Taiwan simply to prevent the U.S. from saying they would do that. Of course, Donald Trump damaged that significantly in his first term and has torn that to shreds in his second term. With Trump’s nakedly transparent and quod pro quo based foreign affairs, it’s hard to remember how much soft power value the U.S. had built up over decades where it could achieve what it wanted without even saying anything, which has basically been destroyed over about a decade.
- api 2y ago
  Before Trump, Bush II burned the moral goodwill America had after WWII and the Cold War. After Iraq in particular the US can no longer claim to stand for the systems of international law it helped create. Now Trump is burning alliances and soft power and threatening to burn the dollar. It seems like imploding the postwar order and the US position therein is a right wing goal.
  - llamaimperative 2y ago
    But the critical question: will sinking our nation, cratering our economy, and destroying our privileged position in the world also own the libs?
    - api 2y ago
      You joke, but I suspect there is a contingent that is fine with a much poorer backwater US if they can put women back in their place and the gays back in the closet. Poverty might even help restore these traditions. Like tankie communists they care more about the ideology than the real outcome. They are in love with a fantasy of how the world ought to look and if it doesn’t look that way it must burn. This is why I have a low opinion of all ideologues, those on the left as well. They will all kill and impoverish us if the square peg does not fit in the round hole. There are also white nationalists for whom white birth rates and ethnic cleansing are the only things that matter. Same deal there.
jwarden 2y ago
Taiwan is not some small random island in the Pacific. It is a country of 23 million people, one of the best-functioning democracies in the world, and the only Mandarin-speaking democracy. It would be a tragic loss for the world if it were swallowed by the PRC. Is it important enough to start WWIII. That’s another question.
- _t9ow 2y ago
  > Americans aren’t going to die en masse over some random island in the pacific OP is saying that Taiwan is "some small random island" from the point of view of most Americans, its merits notwithstanding. And given everything the current Trump administration has done so far (which suggests that they view alliances, promises, and treaties in extremely transactional terms), it doesn't seem unfair or unreasonable to assume that they share this view too.

palmotea 2y ago

> We will heavily sanction China and use economic tools Which will be pointless and fail, especially against a country like China.

disqard 2y ago

You might be right now in your judgement of what Americans are willing to die for. However, I'm old enough to recall when America was convinced by Rumsfeld et. al. to send US soldiers in harms way -- over 4000 of them died in Iraq -- for some obscenely lucrative oil contracts. That qualifies as "die en masse", and it was over some really flimsy pretext, which was later proved to be completely false.

voidfunc 2y ago
You don't understand, those people were brown and the wrong religion and were easily associated with the other brown guys that killed a couple thousand people in 2001. Also 4K is a drop in the bucket compared to what it would take to defend Taiwan.

cantrecallmypwd 2y ago

China is currently building some serious coastal barrier-breaching landing craft for very heavy, large vehicles like tanks. These wouldn't be built unless China intends to: a) Invade Taiwan in the next 1-2 years b) Extort by threat of invasion https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-building-fleet-of-special-barges-suitable-for-taiwan-landings/ https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-... https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/built-extremely-quickly-new-china-pics-making-experts-sweat/news-story/0e475ce00ac3d3f74c3da89e791dc0e4 https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/built...

addicted 2y ago

> Probably an unpopular opinion, but defending Taiwan was always a bluff. Americans aren’t going to die en masse over some random island in the pacific. This is such a funny comment because it’s both right and oh so wrong. Yes, the U.S. was likely never gonna send troops to fight in Taiwan (although it has sent troops to fight in Korea, so it’s not as much of a stretch as you claim). But the bluff worked because the U.S.’s promises held value. To the point that the U.S. didn’t explicitly say they would defend Taiwan against China, but China was avoiding confrontation with Taiwan simply to prevent the U.S. from saying they would do that. Of course, Donald Trump damaged that significantly in his first term and has torn that to shreds in his second term. With Trump’s nakedly transparent and quod pro quo based foreign affairs, it’s hard to remember how much soft power value the U.S. had built up over decades where it could achieve what it wanted without even saying anything, which has basically been destroyed over about a decade.

api 2y ago
Before Trump, Bush II burned the moral goodwill America had after WWII and the Cold War. After Iraq in particular the US can no longer claim to stand for the systems of international law it helped create. Now Trump is burning alliances and soft power and threatening to burn the dollar. It seems like imploding the postwar order and the US position therein is a right wing goal.
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  But the critical question: will sinking our nation, cratering our economy, and destroying our privileged position in the world also own the libs?
  - api 2y ago
    You joke, but I suspect there is a contingent that is fine with a much poorer backwater US if they can put women back in their place and the gays back in the closet. Poverty might even help restore these traditions. Like tankie communists they care more about the ideology than the real outcome. They are in love with a fantasy of how the world ought to look and if it doesn’t look that way it must burn. This is why I have a low opinion of all ideologues, those on the left as well. They will all kill and impoverish us if the square peg does not fit in the round hole. There are also white nationalists for whom white birth rates and ethnic cleansing are the only things that matter. Same deal there.

jwarden 2y ago

Taiwan is not some small random island in the Pacific. It is a country of 23 million people, one of the best-functioning democracies in the world, and the only Mandarin-speaking democracy. It would be a tragic loss for the world if it were swallowed by the PRC. Is it important enough to start WWIII. That’s another question.

_t9ow 2y ago
> Americans aren’t going to die en masse over some random island in the pacific OP is saying that Taiwan is "some small random island" from the point of view of most Americans, its merits notwithstanding. And given everything the current Trump administration has done so far (which suggests that they view alliances, promises, and treaties in extremely transactional terms), it doesn't seem unfair or unreasonable to assume that they share this view too.